Year in Advance Oscar Predictions: Truly, Anything is Possible With The Academy Now (Redux)

Folks, after a much longer than usual break (last year’s small one seems like no time, by comparison), it’s time to officially begin the initial conversation about the next awards season. Go figure, a bit of good timing shows up here, as the Cannes Film Festival just announced their lineup yesterday. As I said last time around and in years prior, year in Advance predictions are either loved or loathed by those who follow the awards season. On the one hand, they’re fun and a glimpse at what the Oscars could potentially look like. On the other, they’re often a completely out of context look at the awards landscape, based mostly on buzz, hype, and speculation, as opposed to anything concrete. I’ve always been in the former camp, though in the past year or two, I’ve been moving towards the latter, where I almost now fully reside…

This past Oscar season, like the one before it was certainly instructive in some ways. For one, when it comes to Best Picture and statistics, only those from this modern era of preferential balloting need apply, full stop. That reading made CODA make a lot more sense than a longer read on the category, with the same being said this year for Everything Everywhere All At Once. That being said, at this early juncture, it’s very much just a crapshoot.

The Academy is absolutely impossible to read a year out, anytime I do this, but even more so nowadays. Just look at what I was predicting last year here (you’ll notice the commentary is even similar, since there’s nothing but blind speculation this early), with the year before right here. Several of my Best Picture picks actually made the cut in both years, including the eventual winner two years ago, but there’s always plenty of swings and misses. I once again fully expect to do much worse this time around, but that’s just the nature of the beast. Mostly, this is something not to take too seriously. so, have fun with it!

Especially with nominations, voters are looking towards fare they never used to consider. Winners still are a step or two behind (though Everything Everywhere All At Once really pushed things forward in both cases), but thinking about the winner in any given category right now is absurd and foolish. Nominees, on the other hand? No, still foolish, but I’m a fool. That being said, you can look at the recent tendencies of the Academy and know that their Oscar ballots are, at least in Phase One, more open minded than ever.

The actual contenders this year will reveal themselves over the months to come, but as I said here in my preview last week, what wins does not tend to be the presumed early frontrunner. So, don’t expect Killers of the Flower Moon in the pole position. Something a little different like Air? Maybe that does better than you might have expected? You’re about to find out.

Below, you can see my advance Oscar predictions. We shall see, but this list is sure to change once I give it an update, likely in a month or two…

Here now are my sure to be wrong Year in Advance predictions for the Academy Awards, written out for easy access. Behold:

BEST PICTURE

1. Air
2. Saltburn
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. The Color Purple
5. Maestro
6. Poor Things
7. Past Lives
8. Oppenheimer
9. The Holdovers
10. The Iron Claw

Next in Line: 11. Dune: Part Two 12. Next Goal Wins 13. Dumb Money 14. Shirley 15. Ferrari 16. Rustin 17. May/December 18. Blitz 19. Flint Strong 20. Barbie 21. Zone of Interest 22. Napoleon 23. Pain Hustlers 24. The Piano Lesson 25. Nightbitch

Also Consider: 26. Nyad 27. Freud’s Last Session 28. Lee 29. Priscilla 30. Asteroid City 31. Challengers 32. Golda 33. One Life 34. The Book of Clarence 35. Strangers 36. Horizon 37. The Brutalist 38. Spaceman 39. Monster 40. The Actor 41. Megalopolis 42. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 43. Perfect Days 44. How to Blow Up a Pipeline 45. Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny 46. Magazine Dreams 47. Fair Play 48. Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One 49. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 50. Cocaine Bear

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
2. Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Ben Affleck – Air
4. Bradley Cooper – Maestro
5. Emerald Fennell – Saltburn

Next in Line: 6. Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things 7.Sean Durkin – The Iron Claw 8. Blitz Bazawule – The Color Purple 9. Alexander Payne – The Holdovers 10. Celine Song – Past Lives

Also Consider: 11. Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two 12. Michael Mann – Ferrari 13. David Fincher – The Killer 14. Taika Waititi – Next Goal Wins 15. Wes Anderson – Asteroid City 16. Craig Gillespie – Dumb Money 17. George C. Wolfe – Rustin 18. Steve McQueen – Blitz 19. Greta Gerwig – Barbie 20. Rachel Morrison – Flint Strong 21. Jonathan Glazer – Zone of Interest 22. Ridley Scott – Napoleon 23. Todd Haynes – May/December 24. John Ridley – Shirley 25. Francis Ford Coppola – Megalopolis

BEST ACTOR

1. Bradley Cooper – Maestro
2. Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
3. Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Colman Domingo – Rustin
5. Matt Damon – Air

Next in Line: 6. Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers 7. André Holland – The Actor 8. Joaquin Phoenix – Napoleon 9. Michael Fassbender – The Killer (or Next Goal Wins) 10. Adam Driver – Ferrari

Also Consider: 11. Barry Keoghan – Saltburn 12. Zac Efron – The Iron Claw 13. Willem Dafoe – Poor Things 14. Jonathan Majors – Magazine Dreams 15. Anthony Hopkins – Freud’s Last Session 16. David Strathairn – A Little Prayer 17. Lakeith Stanfield – The Book of Clarence 18. Timothée Chalamet – Dune: Part Two 19. Adam Sandler – Spaceman 20. Harrison Ford – Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny

BEST ACTRESS

1. Carey Mulligan – Maestro
2. Emma Stone – Poor Things
3. Ryan Destiny – Flint Strong
4. Regina King – Shirley
5. Margot Robbie – Barbie

Next in Line: 6. Fantasia Barrino – The Color Purple 7. Greta Lee – Past Lives 8. Annette Bening – Nyad 9. Helen Mirren – Golda 10. Sandra Hüller – Zone of Interest

Also Consider: 11. Emily Blunt – Pain Hustlers 12. Cailee Spaeny – Priscilla 13. Zendaya – Challengers 14. Julianne Moore – May/December 15. Natalie Portman – May/December 16. Saoirse Ronan – Blitz 17. Amy Adams – Nightbitch 18. Phoebe Dynevor – Fair Play 19. Rosamund Pike – Saltburn 20. Florence Pugh – A Good Person

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Paul Dano – Dumb Money
3. Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
4. Jeremy Allen White – The Iron Claw
5. Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Teacher

Next in Line: 6. Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer 7. Colman Domingo – The Color Purple 8. André Holland – Shirley 9. Seth Rogen – Dumb Money 10. Brian Tyree Henry – Flint Strong

Also Consider: 11. Glynn Turman – Rustin 12. Jacob Elordi – Priscilla or Saltburn 13. Chris Messina – Air 14. Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon 15. Ben Affleck – Air 16. Ryan Gosling – Barbie 17. Corey Hawkins – The Color Purple 18. Matthew Goode – Freud’s Last Session 19. Harris Dickinson – Blitz or The Iron Claw 20. Charles Melton – May/December

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Viola Davis – Air
3. Jodie Foster – Nyad
4. Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
5. Vanessa Kirby – Napoleon

Next in Line: 6. Taraji P. Henson – The Color Purple 7. America Ferrera – Dumb Money 8. Penélope Cruz  – Ferrari 9. Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers 10. Lily James – The Iron Claw

Also Consider: 11. Tilda Swinton – The Killer 12. Scarlett Johansson – Asteroid City 13. Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer 14. Aunjanue Ellis – The Color Purple 15. Carey Mulligan – Saltburn 16. Rebecca Ferguson – Dune: Part Two 17. Claire Foy – Strangers 18. Judy Greer – Flint Strong 19. Shailene Woodley – Dumb Money 20. Florence Pugh – Dune: Part Two

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Air
2. The Iron Claw
3. Maestro
4. Saltburn
5. Past Lives

Next in Line: 6. The Holdovers 7. Blitz 8. Megalopolis 9. Elemental 10. Asteroid City

Also Consider: 11. Fair Play 12. May/December 13. Rustin 14. Golda 15. Challengers 16. The Book of Clarence 17. Horizon 18. Shirley 19. A Good Person 20. Magazine Dreams

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Poor Things
2. Flint Strong
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Barbie
5. Oppenheimer

Next in Line: 6. Ferrari 7. Dumb Money 8. Zone of Interest 9. Next Goal Wins 10. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Also Consider: 11. The Color Purple 12. Dune: Part Two 13. Spaceman 14. Nightbitch 15. Freud’s Last Session 16. One Life 17. The Actor 18. Strangers 19. How to Blow Up a Pipeline 20. Indiana Jones And The Dial Of Destiny

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2. Elemental
3. How Do You Live?
4. Spellbound
5. The Super Mario Bros. Movie

Next in Line: Coming Soon

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

TBD

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

TBD

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

TBD

BEST FILM EDITING

TBD

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

TBD

BEST SOUND

TBD

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

TBD

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

TBD

*The rest are TBD…*

Stay tuned for an update as springtime continues on!