Year in Advance Oscar Predictions: Anything is Possible With The Academy Now

After a slightly longer than usual break, it’s time to officially move on from one awards season and begin the initial conversation about the next one. As I said last time around, year in Advance predictions are either loved or loathed by those who follow the awards season. On the one hand, they’re fun and a glimpse at what the Oscars could potentially look like. On the other, they’re often a completely out of context look at the awards landscape, based mostly on buzz, hype, and speculation, as opposed to anything concrete. I’ve always been in the former camp, though lately, I’ve been moving towards the latter…

This past Oscar season was certainly instructive in some ways. For one, when it comes to Best Picture and statistics, only those from this modern era of preferential balloting need apply. That reading makes CODA make a lot more sense than a longer read on the category. That being said, at this early juncture, it’s very much just a crapshoot.

The Academy is impossible to read a year out, anytime I do this, but even more so now. Just look here at what I was predicting last time. Several of my Best Picture picks actually made the cut, including the eventual winner, but there’s always swings and misses. I fully expect to do much worse this time around, but that’s just the nature of the beast. Mostly, this is something not to take too seriously. so, have fun with it!

Especially with nominations, voters are looking towards fare they never used to consider. Winners still are a step or two behind, but thinking about the winner in any given category right now is absurd and foolish. Nominees, on the other hand? No, still foolish, but I’m a fool. That being said, you can look at the recent tendencies of the Academy and know that their Oscar ballots are, at least in Phase One, more open minded than ever.

In terms of actual contenders, it’s mostly the films we all have known about for months, at least here in April. On paper, movies like Babylon, Canterbury Glass, The Fabelmans, Killers of the Flower Moon, She Said, The Son, and The Whale are titles you’d expect to see on most lists. Beyond that, it’s a matter of taste and just how edgy Oscar voters feel. Bolder picks would lead to more potential love for something like The Batman or Poor Things. Or, perhaps members of the Academy will move back in a more traditional manner? It all remains to be seen, though given what we’ve seen of late, you might want to bet on the former, as opposed to the latter, even if change is slow…

Keep in mind, these are all very likely to be wrong. Even with directors in the mix like Darren Aronofsky, James Cameron, Damien Chazelle, David Fincher, Yorgos Lanthimos, David O. Russell, Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg, and more, anything is possible. You can back whatever horse or horses feel right to you now, but the year itself will have a lot to say about who and what succeeds in 2022/2023.

Below, you can see my advance Oscar predictions. We shall see, but this list is sure to change once I give it an update, likely in a month or two…

Here now are my sure to be wrong Year in Advance predictions for the Academy Awards, written out for easy access. Behold:

BEST PICTURE

1. The Fabelmans
2. She Said
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Babylon
5. Canterbury Glass
6. Poor Things
7. White Noise
8. The Whale
9. Armageddon Time
10. The Son

Next in Line: 11. Empire of Light 12. Maestro 13. The Woman King 14. Shirley 15. The Killer 16. Women Talking 17. Avatar 2 18. The Batman 19. I Wanna Dance With Somebody 20. Till 21. The Banshees of Inisherin 22. Nope 23. Bardo 24. Don’t Worry Darling 25. Elvis 

Also Consider: 26. Three Thousand Years of Longing 27. Everything Everywhere All At Once 28. TÁR 29. Knives Out 2 30. Asteroid City 31. Disappointment Blvd. 32. Red, White and Water 33. Rustin 34. The Brutalist 35. Cha Cha Real Smooth 36. Showing Up 37. Blonde 38. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever 39. Emancipation 40. Next Goal Wins 41. Bones & All 42. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One) 43. Crimes of the Future 44. Broker 45. The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent 46. Spaceman 47. The Northman 48. Men 49. Top Gun: Maverick 50. Clerks III

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Steven Spielberg – The Fabelmans
2. David O. Russell – Canterbury Glass
3. Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Darren Aronofsky – The Whale
5. Maria Schrader – She Said

Next in Line: 6. Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things 7. Damien Chazelle – Babylon 8. James Cameron – Avatar 2 9. James Gray – Armageddon Time 10. Noah Baumbach – White Noise

Also Consider: 11. Sam Mendes – Empire of Light 12. Bradley Cooper – Maestro 13. David Fincher – The Killer 14. Florian Zeller – The Son 15. Wes Anderson – Asteroid City 16. Gina Prince-Bythewood – The Woman King 17. Olivia Wilde – Don’t Worry Darling 18. Todd Field – TÁR 19. Alejandro González Iñárritu – Bardo 20. George Miller – Three Thousand Years of Longing 21. Jordan Peele – Nope 22. Baz Luhrmann – Elvis 23. Andrew Dominik – Blonde 24. Sarah Polley – Women Talking 25. Matt Reeves – The Batman

BEST ACTOR

1. Brendan Fraser – The Whale
2. Bradley Cooper – Maestro
3. Jesse Plemons – Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Brad Pitt – Babylon
5. Hugh Jackman – The Son

Next in Line: 6. Christian Bale – Canterbury Glass 7. Adam Driver – White Noise 8. Austin Butler – Elvis 9. Colman Domingo – Rustin 10. Joaquin Phoenix – Disappointment Blvd.

Also Consider: 11. Michael Fassbender – The Killer (or Next Goal Wins) 12. Colin Farrell – The Banshees of Inisherin 13. Willem Dafoe – Poor Things 14. Bill Nighy – Living 15. Idris Elba – Three Thousand Years of Longing 16. Nicolas Cage – The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent 17. Will Smith – Emancipation 18. Gabriel Bateman – The Fabelmans 19. Cooper Raiff – Cha Cha Real Smooth 20. Tom Cruise – Top Gun: Maverick

BEST ACTRESS

1. Carey Mulligan – She Said
2. Regina King – Shirley
3. Ana de Armas – Blonde
4. Cate Blanchett – TÁR
5. Margot Robbie – Babylon

Next in Line: 6. Frances McDormand – Women Talking 7. Naomi Ackie – I Wanna Dance With Somebody 8. Emma Stone – Poor Things 9. Jennifer Lawrence – Red, White and Water 10. Danielle Deadwyler – Till

Also Consider: 11. Tilda Swinton – Three Thousand Years of Longing 12. Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All At Once 13. Olivia Colman – Empire of Light 14. Laura Dern – The Son 15. Viola Davis –The Woman King 16. Florence Pugh – Don’t Worry Darling 17. Michelle Williams – Showing Up 18. Emma Thompson – Good Luck to You, Leo Grande 19. Taylor Russell – Bones & All 20. Aubrey Plaza – Emily the Criminal

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
2. Paul Dano – The Fabelmans
3. Leonardo DiCaprio – Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Tom Hanks – Elvis
5. Seth Rogen – The Fabelmans

Next in Line: 6. John David Washington – Canterbury Glass 7. Chris Pine – Don’t Worry Darling 8. André Holland – Shirley 9. Tobey Maguire – Babylon 10. Brian Tyree Henry – Red, White and Water

Also Consider: 11. Glynn Turman – Rustin 12. Ashton Sanders – I Wanna Dance With Somebody 13. Frankie Faison –Till 14. Ben Whishaw – Women Talking 15. Don Cheadle – White Noise 16. Mark Strong – TÁR 17. Michael K. Williams – 892 18. Woody Harrelson – Triangle of Sadness 19. Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon 20. Brendan Gleesoon – The Banshees of Inisherin 13. Willem Dafoe – Poor Things 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Zoe Kazan – She Said
2. Michelle Williams – The Fabelmans
3. Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Jessie Buckley – Women Talking
5. Carey Mulligan – Maestro

Next in Line: 6. Hong Chau – The Whale 7. Patricia Clarkson – She Said 8. Samantha Morton  – The Whale 9. Vanessa Kirby – The Son 10. Sadie Sink – The Whale

Also Consider: 11. Margot Robbie – Canterbury Glass 12. Dakota Johnson – Cha Cha Real Smooth 13. Anne Hathaway – Armageddon Time 14. Raffey Cassidy – White Noise 15. Tang Wei – Decision to Leave 16. Tilda Swinton – The Killer 17. Julianne Nicholson – Blonde 18. Katherine Waterston – Babylon 19. Nina Hoss – TÁR 20. Olivia Wilde – Don’t Worry Darling

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Fabelmans
2. Nope
3. Canterbury Glass
4. Empire of Light
5. Armageddon Time

Next in Line: 6. Babylon 7. Maestro 8. Disappointment Blvd. 9. Everything Everywhere All At Once 10. Asteroid City

Also Consider: 11. Don’t Worry Darling 12. Shirley 13. Elvis 14. The Woman King 15. Red, White and Water 16. Cha Cha Real Smooth 17. Three Thousand Years of Longing 18. Men 19. The Northman 20. Apollo 10½

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. White Noise
2. The Whale
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. She Said
5. Poor Things

Next in Line: 6. The Son 7. The Banshees of Inisherin 8. Women Talking 9. TÁR 10. The Batman

Also Consider: 11. Blonde 12. The Wonder 13. Avatar 2 14. I Wanna Dance With Somebody 15. Knives Out 2 16. Persuasion 17. Barbie 18. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One) 19. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever  20. Clerks III

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse (Part One)
2. Turning Red
3. Apollo 10 ½
4. Pinocchio
5. Lightyear

Next in Line: Coming Soon

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Babylon
2. The Fabelmans
3. Avatar 2
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Canterbury Glass

Next in Line: 6. Don’t Worry Darling 7. Empire of Light 8. Persuasion 9. Elvis 10. The Whale

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. The Fabelmans
3. Canterbury Glass
4. Avatar 2
5. Babylon

Next in Line: 6. The Batman 7. The Woman King 8. Don’t Worry Darling 9. Elvis 10. The Wonder

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Babylon
2. Don’t Worry Darling 
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Canterbury Glass
5. The Fabelmans

Next in Line: 6. Empire of Light 7. Elvis 8. Blonde 9. The Northman 10. The Batman

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Killers of the Flower Moon
2. The Fabelmans
3. Babylon
4. She Said
5. The Whale

Next in Line: 6. Canterbury Glass 7. Don’t Worry Darling 8. Poor Things 9. The Killer 10. The Batman

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. The Whale
2. Elvis
3. The Batman
4. Poor Things
5. The Fabelmans

Next in Line: 6. Killers of the Flower Moon 7. Blonde 8. The Northman 9. Avatar 2 10. Thor: Love and Thunder

BEST SOUND

1. Avatar 2
2. The Batman
3. Top Gun: Maverick
4. Babylon
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Next in Line: 6. Thor: Love and Thunder 7. Elvis 8. Nope 9. Killers of the flower Moon 10. The Northman

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Avatar 2
2. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
3. The Batman
4. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
5. Jurassic World: Dominion

Next in Line: 6. Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore 7. Thor: Love and Thunder 8. Nope 9. Top Gun: Maverick 10. Spaceman

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. The Fabelmans
2. Babylon
3. The Batman
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Canterbury Glass

Next in Line: 6. Don’t Worry Darling 7. Women Talking 8. Asteroid City 9. The Whale 10. The Woman King

*The rest are TBD…*

Stay tuned for an update as springtime moves in!