Which Titles From the 79th Cannes Film Festival Could Become Major Oscar Contenders?

Last weekend, the 79th Cannes Film Festival came to a close, with the Palme d’Or going to Cristian Mungiu‘s Fjord. Every year, the end of Cannes is a point where I take a fresh look at my year in advance Oscar predictions. Next week, I’ll likely have an updated predictions piece to share with you, but today, I just wanted to list some of the Cannes titles that have the potential to make an impact at the next Academy Awards, given their bows in the south of France.

Winning the Palme is not necessarily a sign of Oscar contention to come, but like any other prestigious prize, it never hurts. Even if you just look at how NEON has managed to win the last seven Palme prizes in a row, not counting the COVID cancelled year, you can see how this victory works as a launching pad. Prior to Fjord, they’ve won with Parasite in 2019, Titane in 2021, Triangle of Sadness in 2022, Anatomy of a Fall in 2023, Anora in 2024, and It Was Just an Accident in 2025. That’s two Best Picture winners, four Best Picture nominees, and only one title (Titane) that was shut out entirely. The modern Cannes winner is actually more likely than ever to be an Oscar player, even if its ultimate fate can run the gamut from a nomination or two all the way to winning it all.

Unsurprisingly, given the above success, NEON is all over this piece, as they’re looking set to have several potential contenders in play. The two major ones are, of course Fjord, as well as Paper Tiger from James Gray. Not only does the distributor have a keen sense of what is going to play at Cannes, they’ve seemingly cracked the code when it comes to getting the Academy to go for more esoteric fare. NEON and Oscar are having a love affair right now, no doubt about it.

Fjord, on the surface, seems like a harder sell for the Academy than the non-Titane Palme winners, but bet against them at your own risk. A Best Picture nomination, provided it follows the roadmap of its cohorts, is very much in play, especially if Renate Reinsve and/or Sebastian Stan are contending in the Acting categories. That would also likely get Mungiu his first Oscar nomination as well.

Paper Tiger will have to overcome Gray’s work being consistently snubbed by the Academy, much like with the Cannes awards, but this one does sound like it has the goods to contend for a breakthrough citation. Whether someone like Adam Driver, Scarlett Johansson, and/or Miles Teller becomes a player, or Gray himself is cited, getting attention there will give it a fighting chance at a Best Picture nomination.

NEON also has creature feature Hope, which is different enough to warrant potential technical nominations, as well as All of a Sudden from Ryusuke Hamaguchi. Neither one of them seems quite as likely to be a major Oscar player, but Hamaguchi did exceed all expectations for Drive My Car, so sleep on his flick at your own risk. Hope likely is going to just be a cool genre work, but then again, if it hits with people in the right way, watch out…

Two other titles worth mentioning are Fatherland from Paweł Pawlikowski, which could be a vehicle for Sandra Hüller in Best Actress, and The Man I Love from Ira Sachs, which could have Rami Malek in Best Actor contention. These likely will be more targeted plays, though that’s worked for Pawlikowski in the past, especially for Cold War, and Malek being a former winner certainly won’t hurt him any. The former did win a Cannes prize as well, so there’s already a check mark in its favor there.

Of course, it’s early and almost all of the season is still to play out. This is just a marker worth paying attention to. A week from now, I’ll share new Oscar predictions, which may reflect some movement amongst the Cannes titles. For now, just take a look at these flicks, jot them down, and keep them in the back of your mind as things move forward this year. You’ll be hearing more from most of them, and in a few cases, a whole lot more…

Stay tuned to see how these Cannes titles fare this season!