I know. I know. Usually, by now I’ve not only already posted my year in advance predictions for the Academy Awards, it’s possible that I’ve already updated them. This year? Not so much. This time around, I still haven’t finished them, though I will say that they’re in progress and could go up as soon as next week. They’re coming, this month for sure, but today I figured I’d preview some of my advance Oscar thoughts, since this is kind of a lull for that sort of a thing.
As mentioned yesterday on the Podcast (here), I’m giving a lot of thought to my first predicted Best Picture winner. That’s hardly the only thing, as I’ve moved around Jonathan Majors‘ candidacy for Magazine Dreams (reviewed here out of Sundance) a few times (for obvious reasons). Plus, there’s always which films may end up being pushed for 2024, let alone the surprise 2023 releases. So, especially given this extra time, I’m trying to be more thoughtful about it.
If you look at my advance predictions last year (here), I played it very safe. Now, there’s nothing wrong with that, but the times they are changing, so that sort of strategy doesn’t really seem to pay off. While something like The Fabelmans may seem like a good bet, the early year presumed frontrunner hasn’t won anything in quite some time. So, back that pony at your own risk, these days at least. The Academy seems more open to things they used to snub, so in turn, some things they used to flock to are going by the wayside.
So, when I’m thinking about my first predicted winner in Best Picture, I’m taking into account what the modern voter tends to go for. Obviously, we can’t know how festivals or precursors will go, so it’s just about what potentially fits the model of an Oscar winner. To that end, emotions and getting the Academy voter to feel something, are paramount. CODA and Everything Everywhere All At Once, our two most recent Picture winners, both have that in spades. In all likelihood, our next winner will as well.
You’ll see where I land soon enough, but until then (be it next week or later on this month), feel free to speculate. That’s mainly what this part of the year is for, when thinking about the Oscars. So, have some fun with it…
Stay tuned for my advance Oscar predictions soon!