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Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: Telluride Brought Some Players and Now It’s TIFF’s Turn

Folks, ’tis the season. No sooner did I return from the Telluride Film Festival than it was time to turn around and head north to the Toronto International Film Festival. After having taken in seven of the movies that played at Telluride, including some major potential Academy Award players, I’m now on the ground in Canada to see what TIFF has in store for us. So, as we await the major premieres here in Toronto, another quick temperature check is in order. What, if anything, did Telluride show us, in terms of the Oscar race? Well, I’ve got updated predictions to share with you, so something must have gone down…

In addition to Telluride ending and TIFF starting, the Venice Film Festival is first wrapping up as well. In addition to White Noise debuting, we’ve just seen Blonde bow to, well, interesting reviews, but ones that heavily praise Ana de Armas. So, she could still be a contender. Venice also launched The Whale as a truly legit player for Brendan Fraser, plus The Banshees of Inisherin. There was also the surprisingly hostile reception to Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths), which complicates the path of that movie, as well as a mixed response to The Son. At the same time, TÁR debuted to raves for Todd Field and especially Cate Blanchett. Then, it was time to come stateside.

When Telluride picked up the baton, they were the second word on flicks from other festivals, like Armageddon Time, Bardo (or False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths), and TÁR, just to name a few. Then, they premiered work like Empire of Light and Women Talking, both of which were confirmed as definite Oscar contenders.

Now, it’s TIFF’s turn. Here, we’ll be confirming thoughts on The Banshees of Inisherin, The Son, The Whale, and more. There’s also the World Premieres of titles like The Fabelmans, A Jazzman’s Blues, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Woman King, and more. It goes without saying, but the Academy Awards may well be dominated by one or more of these films.

My prior early prediction articles (found hereherehereherehere, and here) are available for your perusal, and can see some more of the changes I’ve been making, especially now after Telluride. It’s still a little bit silly, since things are about to change again, but this is another snapshot of where things stand, now as we’ve reached early September. Telluride is in the rearview mirror and TIFF has kicked off.

Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at advance Oscar predictions (which officially now will just be considered regular old new predictions, as opposed to year in advance) right here at Awards Radar. The changes are coming, and will continue to come, more and more, as the fall festivals conclude. So, sit tight…

An Oscar statue is pictured during the Oscars Foreign Language Film Award Directors Reception in advance of the 88th Academy Awards in Hollywood, Los Angeles, California February 26, 2016. The Oscars will be presented February 28, 2016. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri – GF10000325443

Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions as the festival season continues!


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Written by Joey Magidson

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