Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: The Summer is Pretty Much Over and Fall Film Festival Season is About to Reveal Some Contenders

Well, the wait is over folks, as we’ve arrived. The fall film festival season is literally underway, with so much of the early speculation about to give way to analysis and reviews. Yesterday, I departed for the Telluride Film Festival, so as you read this, I’m on the ground preparing to, or actually already watching some movies. Once I get back from Telluride, it’s basically a 48 hour turnaround or so before a week at the Toronto International Film Festival. Then, that leads to a brief break before taking in some of the New York Film Festival at the end of the month (plus perhaps more, so stay tuned). They’re hardly the only festivals going on around now, too. With all of this in mind (and because I’m right in the midst of all this absolute madness), it seems like another perfect time to update predictions and take the season’s temperature!

Obviously, things are about to change a lot, but it’s interesting to note where we stand right now. Titles that are about to debut and rank highly in my predictions will need to put up or shut up. Plenty of smaller films will raise their profile. Big potential contenders will fall. Movies will be moving positions a lot, so my prior predictions will undoubtedly seem silly. Regardless, today is a good moment to look at where things are.

The festival season is hot and heavy right now, with the Venice International Film Festival going on alongside the just kicking off Telluride Film Festival. Next week, the Toronto International Film Festival will chime in, dumping even more movies into the fray. A month or so from now, the New York Film Festival will bring this deluge to a close, but not before the landscape has potentially been changed. This year may feel currently like it’s in a bit of an Oscar stasis, with Christopher Nolan‘s The Odyssey feeling like the one to beat, but awards season will have evolved, at least in some forms, during the next month and a half.

Venice is currently in progress and features Bucking Fastard, Bunker, Ink, Primetime, Wild Horse Nine and more among its ranks. This is usually where the buzz begins, before feeding over into Telluride and then TIFF. Italy sets the stage, before the stateside word in the mountains of Colorado and the reception in Toronto pretty much gives us our initial awards season stances. So, pay attention to the early words here, some of which we’ve already heard about, but others are still about to drop.

Telluride of course has a secret lineup, revealed right as folks like yours truly arrive in Colorado. The festival revealed all yesterday, with the slate including Alpha Gang, Bucking Fastard, Club Kid, The Debut, Elsinore, Fatherland, Fjord, Ink, La bola negra, The Liberation, A Long Winter, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, Tender Loving Care, Tenzing, and Wild Horse Nine, plus more. As you’re reading this, I’ll be gearing up to see several of these, which will certainly impact what these predictions look like afterwards.

A week later, it’s time for TIFF to chime in with its offerings. Among the films of note hitting Toronto once I’m in town are All of a Sudden, Alpha Gang, Atonement, Babies, Being Heumann, Bitter Christmas, Bucking Fastard, Bunker, Clarissa, Club Kid, The Debut, Elsinore, Evil Genius, Fjord, I Play Rocky, Josephine, La bola negra, The Last Photograph, The Liberation, Misty Green, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, Prima Facie, Tender Loving Care, Tenzing, Wild Horse Nine, and many more. I’ll be there, so whatever turns out to be Oscar-centric, you’ll hear about. Is that going to be every movie? Of course not. Will some surely become players? I’d bank on it.

Then, in October it’s NYFF’s turn. Their lineup includes XXX and more. Lately, New York is a festival I don’t spend as much time at, since, obviously, I’ve seen a lot of the slate at Telluride and TIFF, but this is where I’ll check out 14th, Artificial, Behemoth!, Godzilla Minus Zero, A Statement, and a few other things (I’ve already seen Paper Tiger, for example). Once NYFF wraps up, I’ll know where we stand, early Academy Award buzz-wise, to be sure.

Right now, it appears like The Odyssey remains in the pole position, but that can easily change. At the very least, new contenders will be able to stack up against Nolan’s epic and see how the appear to fare. A smaller title would seem like the best bet, at least to offer up a different sort of film to the Academy, so keep your eyes on The Debut, Elsinore, Fjord, La bola negra, and Wild Horse Nine as possibilities. If one of those movies, or something else for that matter, really has a dynamite debut or festival run, they could catch fire when the precursors begin.

My prior early prediction article (found here) is available for your perusal, and can see some more of the changes I’ve been making along the way, though the real changes are coming next. Also, as you probably noticed, I’ve moved away from the early/year in advance designation, as now is the time to start up with these in earnest. It’s still a little silly, since things are about to change again, but this is a snapshot of where things stand, as the calendar has nowturned to September. The festivals will have their say, so just stay tuned there.

Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at advance Oscar predictions (which, again, officially now will just be considered regular old new predictions, as opposed to year in advance) right here at Awards Radar. The changes are coming, and will continue to come, more and more, as the fall festivals kick off and then conclude. So, sit tight for much more as I report in from Telluride, TIFF, and NYFF…

Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions as the fall festival season gets fully underway!