Joey Magidson
Just a few weeks ago, I posted a predictions update piece that came right as the fall film festival season was getting underway. I was in Colorado for the start of the Telluride Film Festival, which would kick off that day, while the Venice Film Festival had just started up. It was truly the calm before the first storm. Now, I’m back from Telluride and TIFF, with the New York Film Festival right around the corner. What better time is there to update my Oscar predictions, as well as take a brief look at where things stand? Exactly. So, join me for a state of the race, mid festival season.
This post drops right as TIFF is coming to a close, in the shadow of Telluride and Venice earlier in the month, and with NYFF about to kick off. This very much is a mid-point in the festival season. We’re about to find out what wins the TIFF People’s Choice Award, which could be an Oscar indicator. After New York, it’s regional festivals where contenders will hope to make waves with voters, and then…it’s precursor time. Until then, let’s look at what the festivals brought us, new contender wise.
Venice launched some hopefuls in Bunker, Ink, Primetime, and Wild Horse Nine, but it was only the latter to truly become an across the board player. Ink is going to be one of Netflix’s contenders, but likely will be overshadowed by La bola negra, while Primetime could prove to be Robert Pattinson or bust. As for Wild Horse Nine, it got raves, which continued both at Telluride and TIFF. John Malkovich won the Best Actor prize here, cementing him as one of the Oscar frontrunners. Look for him to be a nominee, while Sam Rockwell should be a major factor in Best Supporting Actor. Martin McDonagh will be up for Best Original Screenplay again, and could be in the Best Director mix, while the film itself feels very safe for a Best Picture nomination. It’s a player, plain and simple.
Telluride saw The Debut, Elsinore, Tender Loving Care, and You Can See Everything all emerge as players. Jesse Eisenberg will score at least one nomination for writing and directing The Debut, which could ultimately win Julianne Moore Best Actress and perhaps even Paul Giamatti Best Supporting Actor, while the film itself should get into Best Picture. Elsinore hopes to be more than Andrew Scott in the thick of Best Actor, so if Olivia Colman can get into Best Supporting Actress, that could help with its Best Picture aspirations. Mike Leigh affection should keep Tender Loving Care in the conversation for his usual categories, and if so, Marion Bailey and Kate O’Flynn could do well in Best Actress/Best Supporting Actress, once category placements are figured out. Then, there’s You Can See Everything, which is an unconventional player, but one worth keeping an eye on in categories beyond Best Documentary Feature, nonetheless.
TIFF had less Oscar friendly premieres than usual, as Being Heumann could ultimately get lost in the shuffle, despite being Siân Heder‘s follow up to CODA and being rather well liked in its own right. So, the big Academy Award contender to debut up in Toronto was I Play Rocky, which is about as massive a crowdpleaser as it gets. I really do think a Best Picture nomination is in the cards for this one, with Anthony Ippolito suddenly someone to think about in Best Actor. Watch out for this one, folks, as it may well be one of the biggest surprises come nomination morning. Maybe it gets forgotten about, but I have a feeling some of you are sleeping on this one.
Now, we have NYFF entering the chat. 14th, Artificial, Behemoth!, Godzilla Minus Zero, and A Statement are going to debut, while Paper Tiger will hope to gain some steam after premiering back at the Cannes Film Festival. Depending on how they do, we’ll have even more to consider this season, but the table has been set. Now, it’s just up to these flicks to give audiences and voters even more to dine out on.
I still think The Odyssey leads the pack, with La bola negra feeling like the number two right now. From there, it depends on how you think Project Hail Mary will be remembered, how Dune: Part Three will turn out, and what to make of Digger (I see it very soon…like, very soon), as well as The Social Reckoning. Then, you just slot in the above contenders, with Wild Horse Nine probably the highest ranking of those movies, and you more or less have a solid Best Picture lineup to play around with here in September. Plus, don’t sleep on Club Kid, which has been slowly building esteem and momentum since the Cannes Film Festival. I can vouch for it playing like gangbusters at both Telluride and TIFF. On the flip side, Fjord played well at Telluride, if not quite as well as at Cannes, but had a more divisive reception at TIFF. Maybe it means nothing? Maybe not? We shall see…
My prior early prediction article (found here) is available for your perusal, and can see some more of the changes I’ve been making along the way, as some real changes have hit my picks. The festivals are having their say, and it’s not nearly as early in the season as it seemed, just a few weeks ago. Now, we’re very much in the thick of it all.
Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at advance Oscar predictions (which, again, officially now will just be considered regular old new predictions, as opposed to year in advance) right here at Awards Radar. The changes are coming, and will continue to come, more and more, as the fall festivals keep unspooling contenders. So, sit tight for much more as I continue to report in from the festivals, with NYFF up next…
Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions as the fall festival season carries on!
I don’t know if I agree with this. I’d like for it to be true, especially since this is Leigh’s swan song and it would be lovely to see some parting recognition for him. But I’d argue he’s only had one “usual category” his entire career: Best Original Screenplay. It’s been over twenty years since he’s been nominated for Best Director, and thirty years since he’s directed a Best Picture nominee. And as Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Michele Austin, Timothy Spall, Lesley Manville, Sally Hawkins, Eddie Marsan, Jim Broadbent, Shirley Henderson, Allan Corduner, and David Thewlis can attest, delivering a widely-celebrated performance in a Mike Leigh movie does not guarantee Academy recognition. In fact, the odds are often against you.
Was just shorthand for the categories we normally discuss him in. I do think he’s poised for at least an Original Screenplay nomination.