‘Project Hail Mary’ is the First Real Oscar Contender of the New Year…If Amazon MGM Can Keep the Conversation Going

Project Hail Mary is officially a hit. An estimated $80.6 million at the domestic box office (and over $140 million globally), to go along with almost uniform rave reviews, plus an A CinemaScore, suggest all of the best case scenarios for the release from Amazon MGM. There should be long legs ahead for the film, which can only further its bona fides for essentially a second release later on in 2026. Yes, this movie can be an Oscar player next season. It will just need to remind audiences and voters how much they loved it, and that will require a strong campaign in the fall and winter.

The science fiction film, of course, stars Ryan Gosling, with Phil Lord and Christopher Miller directing, while the adaptation of the Andy Weir novel is written by Drew Goddard. All of whom have Academy Award experience, too. Goddard was nominated for adapting Weir’s first novel, The Martian. Lord and Miller have three nominations in Best Animated Feature, winning for Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. Gosling, of course, is a three time Oscar nominee, being nominated in Best Actor for Half Nelson and La La Land, as well as in Best Supporting Actor for Barbie. Now, they all could be in the forthcoming race again, as they’re all doing some of their best work.

Notably, the other aspect of the flick that’s gotten such strong acclaim is Gosling’s work alongside Rocky, the alien he befriends. A puppetry achievement that’s very much brought to life by James Ortiz, Project Hail Mary becomes the heartwarming tribute to friendship that it ultimately is due to Gosling’s Grace and Rocky becoming an all-timer of a cinematic friendship. That’s the secret sauce that helps to separate the film from the rest of the sci-fi pack.

In my rave review (here), I shared how blown away I was by the movie, putting forth the following:

Wow. Truly, it feels apt to begin a review of Project Hail Mary with just that. Wow. There is something about the works of Andy Weir that I’m now convinced make amazing films. The Martian is one of the best adaptations of a science fiction novel in some time, so expectations here were already high. Still, in taking a more ambitious Weir work and making this movie as phenomenal as it is does feel like an achievement. Those calling it E.T. the Extra-Terrestrial meets Interstellar are giving you an idea of what to expect, this has elements of Gravity and The Martian as well. Moreover, this is probably the most purely entertaining of the lot. This flick is incredible, absolutely engrossing, and the best film of the year so far.

Project Hail Mary is the highlight of 2026 cinema to date due to how immediately sucked in by the story you get. The sci-fi elements aren’t necessarily unlike anything you’ve seen before, though how it’s depicted is very unique. This is a stunning achievement, all things considered, with so much heart and imagination. I loved every single moment of this movie, from first frame to last.

Later on in the same review, I got into its awards prospects for the flick, stating:

I know it’s early and a bit ridiculous to talk about awards, but Project Hail Mary is good enough to warrant the conversation. Keep in mind, Sinners came out in mid April last year, so while it’s not a great comparison, genre fare, when done this well, does get noticed months later by the Academy. This flick deserves attention in Best Picture, Best Actor for Gosling, Best Adapted Screenplay for Goddard, Best Cinematography for Fraser, Best Original Score for Pemberton, and Best Visual Effects. If Oscar voters are anywhere near as enthusiastic about this one as I am, this could extend to Best Director for Lord and Miller, as well as various other technical categories. A lot would have to go right, but I believe in this one’s ability to connect with audiences and voters alike, even with a March release date.

That sure seems to hold true now, with Gosling and the film itself feeling like early major players, alongside Greig Fraser‘s cinematography. In fact, I’d throw in some more of the techs and Sandra Hüller in Best Supporting Actress as other places to consider citations. There’s no way to know how viable any of these will ultimately be, but in seeing how Project Hail Mary has started off, it’s in a good place. After all, so many campaigns for Oscar contenders are launched without anyone really knowing the quality of said contender, or working with whatever degree of decent to good reviews it has received. This one will be able to enter awards season as a certified hit and raved about work. So, an advantage to a more crowd-pleasing option as compared to some of the heavier contenders it will likely be going up against.

It will be on Amazon MGM to pull this off, though it shouldn’t be a full on Hail Mary. They’ll have other contenders to handle, particularly I Play Rocky (ironically titled, given this film’s alien co-star), but should be able to launch more than one player into the field. What they’ll have to do is remind everyone of this acclaim, as well as its popularity. F1 taking a populist slot in this most recent Picture lineup suggests a potential spot for something like Project Hail Mary.

Hopefully we see a robust and successful campaign in the end for Project Hail Mary, but this is ridiculously early. At the same time, we have our first legitimate Oscar contender for 2026, and I’ll be debuting a small bit of advance predictions on Friday, so this is a nice check-in on what possibilities we could have on our hands eventually. For now, just luxuriate in the quality and success of a film like this one…

Stay tuned to see how Project Hail Mary eventually fares in the next awards race!