Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: Where Do We Stand After Telluride and TIFF Have Had Their Say?

It seems like only days ago I was packing for the Telluride Film Festival, let alone the Toronto International Film Festival. Yet, here we are, post Telluride and TIFF, with the New York Film Festival on the horizon. Each year, this is the time when the Oscar race really begins to come into focus. Interestingly, this year it seems like the Academy Awards are as wide open as ever, in just about every single category. As such, not only was it a perfect time to update my predictions, it’s also a good moment to see where we stand during the fall festival season…

Telluride and TIFF came on the heels of the Venice Film Festival, where the true breakout was The Brutalist. Maria, Queer, The Room Next Door, and September 5 played there as well, but The Brutalist was what really popped. If there’s a surprise new contender to be found, it’s Brady Corbet‘s three and a half hour epic. A lot can happen, but it does look like it’s going to be a player in a way I did not expect previously.

At Telluride, there was no shortage of contenders at play. Anora, Emilia Pérez, and The Seed of the Sacred Fig all continued to amass fans after the Cannes Film Festival, with September 5 building off of its Venice bow. Conclave, The Piano Lesson, and Saturday Night debuted well, with Conclave and Saturday Night especially seemingly solidifying their status as possible Best Picture nominees. Anora and Emilia Pérez did nothing to dull their Oscar buzz, and in fact, probably emerged stronger than ever.

TIFF, on the other hand, didn’t really offer up much in the way of actual new contenders. Eden, The Fire Inside, Hard Truths, The Last Showgirl, Nightbitch, Unstoppable, and We Live in Time all showed, at best, limited Oscar potential. The only premiere that seems to be a likely nominee is The Wild Robot, and that’s potentially just a Best Animated Feature player. It was the likes of Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Piano Lesson, The Room Next Door, and Saturday Night that seem better suited to be Academy Award players. Even then, these films are not all created equal, as you’ll see in my updated predictions.

Next we have the New York Film Festival. Blitz will be the only real premiere there to take in, though things like Anora, The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez, The Friend, Hard Truths, Maria, Nickel Boys, Oh, Canada, Queer, A Real Pain, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, and The Shrouds are screening. Whether the race is impacted at all by Blitz remains to be seen, but it’s another location for some big players to appeal to the industry.

Where do we stand? Well, now we just have to see how these players do in a post festival environment. Precursors are still a bit away, so nothing is really a frontrunner right now. Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, and Saturday Night do seem to have fared the best from festival season right now, and if that holds, we have half of our Best Picture lineup. As for the rest? That really does remain to be seen. Essentially, we’re in a holding pattern, but without much in the way of X factors. Clint Eastwood‘s Juror #2 is now coming out this year and may have a chance to shake up the race, but the unseen contenders remaining are few and far between. Aside from A Complete Unknown from James Mangold, pretty much everything else is a known entity of some sort. So, strap in, as the precursors will have a big say later o this year…

My prior predictions article (found here) is available for your perusal, and can see some more of the changes I’ve been making along the way, post Telluride and TIFF. Next up, as mentioned, is NYFF for me. The more that the festivals have their say, the more I’ll be tinkering, so just stay tuned there. We’re fully in it now, friends, that’s for sure.

Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at advance Oscar predictions (which, again, officially now will just be considered regular old new predictions, as opposed to year in advance) right here at Awards Radar. The changes are coming, and will continue to come, more and more, as the fall festivals conclude. So, sit tight for much more as I report in next from NYFF…

Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions as the fall festival season continues!