Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: The Summer is Over and Fall Film Festival Season is Beginning to Show Us Some Contenders

Well folks, we’re here. The fall film festival season is literally underway, with so much of the early speculation about to give way to analysis and reviews. Yesterday, I departed for the Telluride Film Festival, so as you read this, I’m on the ground watching movies. Once I get back from Telluride, it’s basically a 24 hour turnaround before a week at the Toronto International Film Festival. Then, that leads to a brief break before taking in some of the New York Film Festival at the end of the month. They’re hardly the only festivals going on around now, too. With all of this in mind (and because I’m right in the midst of all this madness), it seems like a perfect time to update predictions and take the season’s temperature!

Obviously, things are about to change, but it’s interesting to note how much I’ve written about the lack of awards season movement. Last time around, I included A Complete Unknown (which isn’t currently going to any festivals) and Saturday Night (which is) here, as they could shake up the race a touch. With the latter at least, I’ll be able to chime in soon. Regardless, today is a good moment to look at where things are.

Festival season is hot and heavy right now, with the Venice International Film Festival going on alongside the Telluride Film Festival. Next week, the Toronto International Film Festival will chime in, dumping even more movies into the fray. A month or so from now, the New York Film Festival will bring this deluge to a close, but not before the landscape has potentially been changed. This year may feel currently like it’s in a bit of an Oscar stasis, but awards season will have evolved in the next month and a half.

Venice is currently in progress and features Babygirl, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, The Brutalist, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2, Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Queer, The Room Next Door, Wolfs, and more among its ranks. This is usually where the buzz begins, before feeding over into Telluride and then TIFF. Italy sets the stage, before the stateside word in the mountains of Colorado and the reception in Toronto pretty much gives us our initial awards season stances. So, pay attention to the early words here, some of which we’ve already heard about, but others are still about to drop.

Telluride of course has a secret lineup, revealed right as folks like yours truly arrive in Colorado. The festival revealed all yesterday, with the slate including Anora, Better Man, Bird, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The End, The Friend, Maria, Nickel Boys, The Outrun, The Piano Lesson, Piece By Piece, Saturday Night, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Will & Harper, plus more. As you’re reading this, I’ll be gearing up to see several of these, which will certainly impact what these predictions look like afterwards.

A week later, it’s time for TIFF to chime in with its offerings. Among the films of note hitting Toronto once I’m in town are Anora, Babygirl, Bird, The Brutalist, Conclave, The Deb, Eden, Emilia Pérez, The End, The Fire Inside, The Friend, Hard Truths, The Last Republican, The Last Showgirl, Megalopolis, Millers in Marriage, Nightbitch, Nutcrackers, Oh, Canada, The Order, The Piano Lesson, Queer, Road Diary: Bruce Springsteen and The E Street Band, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night, The Shrouds, The Substance, Unstoppable, We Live in Time, The Wild Robot, Without Blood, and many more. I’ll be there, so whatever turns out to be Oscar-centric, you’ll hear about. Is that going to be every movie? Of course not. Will some surely become players? I’d bank on it.

Then, in October it’s NYFF’s turn. Their lineup includes Anora, Blitz, The Brutalist, Emilia Pérez, The Friend, Hard Truths, Maria, Nickel Boys, Oh, Canada, Queer, A Real Pain, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Shrouds, and more. Lately, New York is a festival I don’t spend as much time at, since, obviously, I’ve seen a lot of the slate at Telluride and TIFF, but this is where I’ll check out Blitz, The Brutalist (if I can handle the running time), Nickel Boys, and a few other things. Once NYFF wraps up, I’ll know where we stand, early Academy Award buzz-wise, to be sure.

Obviously, the biggest unseen titles to look out for in the next couple of weeks are things like Blitz, Eden, Joker: Folie à Deux, Maria, Nickel Boys, Nightbitch, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, Saturday Night, and We Live in Time.

So, where do we stand? Well, in short we’re on the precipice of seeing just how influential the fall film festival titles will be. Will they take over the early awards conversation? Will they fall short and give even more strength to the candidacies of earlier contenders like Civil War, Challengers, Dune: Part Two, His Three Daughters (thought that’s still to be released), Hit Man, and more? Maybe it’ll be the Cannes Film Festival flicks like Anora and Emilia Pérez that soar to the top? We’ll know soon enough.

My prior early prediction article (found here) is available for your perusal, and can see some more of the changes I’ve been making along the way. Also, as you probably noticed, I’ve moved away from the early/year in advance designation, as now is the time to start up with these in earnest. It’s still a little silly, since things are about to change again, but this is a snapshot of where things stand, as the calendar turns to September in just a few short days. The festivals will have their say, so just stay tuned there.

Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at advance Oscar predictions (which, again, officially now will just be considered regular old new predictions, as opposed to year in advance) right here at Awards Radar. The changes are coming, and will continue to come, more and more, as the fall festivals kick off and then conclude. So, sit tight for much more as I report in from Telluride, TIFF, and NYFF…

Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions as the fall festival season gets fully underway!