@msamandaspears
Tonight marks the return of the Emmy Awards. While this was an atypical season to say the least, between the strikes shutting down production/promotion and the delayed ceremony, it seems odd to be reading the tea leaves as the new Emmy season is weeks away from revving up. With that said, we want to look at the race for Outstanding Actor in anticipation of tonight’s ceremony.
With only one notable exception for the past 12 years there’s such a glaring pattern to the Emmy Drama Race for Best Actor that even a passive viewer could pick up on.
Here’s a look at the last 12 winners:
• Kyle Chandler for the last season of “Friday Night Lights” (2011)
• Damian Lewis for the first season of “Homeland” (2012)
• Jeff Daniels for the first season of “The Newsroom” (2013)
• Bryan Cranston for the last season of “Breaking Bad” (2014)
• Jon Hamm for the last season of “Mad Men” (2015)
• Rami Malek for the first season of “Mr. Robot” (2016)
• Sterling K. Brown for the first season of “This Is Us” (2017)
• Matthew Rhys for the last season of “The Americans” (2018)
• Billy Porter for the first season of “Pose” (2019)
• Jeremy Strong for the second season of “Succession” (2020)
• Josh O’Connor for his last season of “The Crown” (2021)
• Lee Jung-jae for the first season of “Squid Game” (2022)
Notice a pattern? With the exception of Strong, 11 of the 12 past winners have been for either their first or last seasons. And only Daniels was able to pull off a victory without his series at least being nominated.
And now for the irony… this year’s nominees:
• Jeff Bridges for the first season of “The Old Man”
• Brian Cox for the last season of “Succession”
• Kieran Culkin for the last season of “Succession”
• Bob Odenkirk for the second half of the last season of “Better Call Saul “
• Pedro Pascal for the first season of “The Last of Us”
Jeremy Strong for the last season of Succession. See the irony? None can be eliminated— making this a somewhat even race. That is unless you’re Bridges whose series is not nominated. Bridges may be an Oscar winner and a living legend but that’s probably not going to be enough to win this race. Cox, can also be eliminated since his character essentially exits the series in the third episode and only briefly appears in a few moments throughout the rest of the season.
Then there’s Culkin, who’s been promoted from Supporting— he submitted “Church and State” (aka
the funeral episode). But this may have been a mistake as he was at his best in “Kill State” where he tells off Alexander Skarsgard. If episodes matter and that’s debatable in a popular vote “Church and State,” helps his onscreen brother Strong who wisely submitted the series finale “With Open Eyes” giving him an arc that could make him the victor once again. Helping this trio is their show aired last so it may be the freshest in voter’s minds. Should Strong win he would be the first multiple winner since Cranston went three in a row (2008-2010, 2014).
As Cox knows all too well— Strong either wins or they split their vote. Which is what happened the last time this talented trio went head to head at the SAG Awards in 2022 when they were upset by Jung-jae. If not the Oscar winner (Bridges) or the men of Succession then who?
Enter Odenkirk, perennial nominee hoping to pull off a long overdue win. But he’s got nothing but hurdles in his path to victory.
Hurdle One: the show aired over a year ago. Do the voters remember his performance?
Hurdle Two: Better Call Saul, underperformed with only Rhea Seehorn being the only other acting nomination. The glaring snubs include past nominees Jonathan Banks and Giancarlo Esposito. Not to mention living legend Carol Burnett. Plus, the series’ big guest stars— Brian Cranston and Aaron Paul.
Hurdle Three: The series has NEVER won an Emmy in ANY category.
Hurdle Four: The SAG-Aftra strike, Odenkirk would really have benefited from some campaigning about his lack of an acting Emmy.
Hurdle Five: Odenkirk lost the SAG Award. He needed the momentum of a major win to propel him to Emmy front runner. Sadly Odenkirk, may walk away empty handed once again.
Last but certainly not least is Pascal, who may be in a prime position to sneak off with the trophy. The Last of Us has received a whopping 24 nominations. After previously being snubbed for his break out role in Game of Thrones or for The Mandalorian Pascal scored an additional two nominations for Comedy Guest Actor for Saturday Night Live and Best Narrator for Patagonia. Pascal is the first Hispanic Actor to reap a nomination since Jimmy Smits received four nominations for NYPD Blue (1996-1999). Should Pascal win he would make history as the first Hispanic Actor to do so.
But, The Last of Us is a post apocalypse story with creatures somewhat like zombies
and that could be what prevents Pascal from being taken seriously for the trophy—as
the winners aren’t usually from science fiction.
Regardless voting has concluded and without your campaigns this is anyone’s to win or lose. With that said, Culkin’s recent string of awards wins it is hard not to lean in his direction.
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