Joey Magidson
It’s somewhat of an unspoken thing that the Telluride Film Festival launches Oscar season. The presence of Academy members, the small amount of press, most of whom are prognosticators like yours truly, and the type of movie that plays in mountains all contribute to that. So, in light of that, I figured I’d fully put a bow on Telluride by recapping what the awards chances for the main titles at the festivals just might be.
You can find my personal awards and rankings for what I saw at Telluride here, but below I’ll go through the major titles to give an idea of what they could be thinking, Oscar-wise. It’s not a sure thing that anything will happen for any of them, but the smart money is on several of these flicks being able to score nominations from the Academy.
Anora won the Palme d’Or at the Cannes Film Festival and Telluride confirmed that this film plays like gangbusters. Sean Baker‘s most accessible work, while still being very edgy, stands an excellent chance of being his first multiple nomination movie. Best Picture, Best Director for Baker, Best Actress for Mikey Madison, and Best Original Screenplay for Baker feel easily attainable. If voters gravitate towards the flick, Baker could score in Best Film Editing as well, while Best Supporting Actor could make room for someone like Yuriy Borisov.
The Apprentice proved less divisive in the mountains than at Cannes. Still, Best Picture for this Donald Trump origin story feels unlikely. A targeted campaign that centers on Sebastian Stan in Best Actor for playing Trump and Jeremy Strong in Best Supporting Actor for playing Roy Cohn could play dividends. In particular, watch out for Strong to potentially be a contender in Supporting Actor.
Conclave is an across the board contender, folks. Edward Berger again knocks one out of the park, crafting an incredibly entertaining political thriller. Look for this movie to be a major player in Best Picture, Best Director for Berger, Best Actor for Ralph Fiennes, Best Supporting Actor for Stanley Tucci, Best Supporting Actress for Isabella Rossellini, Best Adapted Screenplay for, and a host of below the line categories. In fact, this is one that has at least a shot at taking home Picture when all is said and done.
Emilia Pérez also confirmed itself as a Cannes alumnus with Oscar nominations in its future. The ladies in the cast will have to figure out who goes Lead and who goes Supporting, but Karla Sofía Gascón, Selena Gomez (she’d be in Best Supporting Actress for sure, unlike the other two, who could go either way), and Zoe Saldana all have potential for nominations. Best Picture and Best Director (for Jacques Audiard) seem safe, with Audiard also in play for Best Adapted Screenplay. Plus, it’s the early frontrunner in Best International Feature. This flick is going to be a contender.
Maria could be the first Pablo Larraín film to really be embraced by the Academy. It feels like Best Actress for Angelina Jolie and Best Cinematography are safe bets. So, it’ll be whether Netflix can get Best Picture consideration, Larraín into Best Director, or any more of the technical categories cited. It might be a hard sell for some, but the beauty of the movie seems likely to shine down when Oscar has its say.
The Piano Lesson is a harder one to figure out. Reactions were positive yet muted for anything other than Danielle Deadwyler. She feels likely to be campaigned in Best Supporting Actress, where she’d have an easier time, but this movie is somewhat of an X factor. I’d worry about it slipping through the cracks if I’m Netflix, but Deadwyler will be in the thick of it, presumably.
A Real Pain needs to have a targeted campaign, but if so, Kieran Culkin in Best Supporting Actor, where he could win, and Jesse Eisenberg in Best Original Screenplay are right there for the taking. As a smaller movie, the road will be hard, but Culkin especially could wind up being too good for voters to ignore.
Saturday Night probably had the biggest jump in Oscar prospects from those who weren’t on a limb with the film like I was. Jason Reitman‘s comedy should fit into Best Picture as a crowd-pleaser, while Reitman in Best Director and Best Original Screenplay (along with Gil Kenan) could certainly happen. The ensemble cast is more of an X factor, as there aren’t standouts so much as multiple performers working in concert with each other. There’s a definite lane for this one, though, so watch out for it to do very well with voters.
When it comes to titles I didn’t get to see at Telluride, the biggest jump in Oscar prospects went to The Brutalist (technically it wasn’t at the festival, but the buzz translated in a way that made it have a presence) and September 5. Both are acquisition titles, with the former about to screen at the Toronto International Film Festival, where I’ll probably be seeing it. The End and Nickel Boys came off as perhaps too artsy for the Academy, so make of that what you will. Among the other films I did see, the only one I think more or less won’t be a potentially major awards season factor is The Friend. Now, that’s not a quality issue, but lacking a distributor still does make me skeptical that it’ll even come out in 2024. If it does, Naomi Watts could hang around in Best Actress, but I suspect the flick will mostly fly beneath the radar. Alas.
Now, keep in mind that these are still early days for the awards season. We still have other films to debut, other festivals to have their say, and a ton of precursors to upend the race. So much is still to come. This is just a way of setting up possibilities, as opposed to expectations. Anything can and likely still could happen, so remember that.
TIFF will be next to chime in, and obviously I’ll be updating my Oscar predictions soon. So, sit tight for that. It’s going to be an eventful week or so…
Stay tuned to see how these Telluride titles factor into awards season!
Not that this will necessarily move the needle when it comes to industry awards (or even critics’ awards, for that matter), but it’s worth noting that the Kickstarter set up by the producers of The Apprentice to prolong and expand its commercial theatrical rollout in the United States met its fundraising goal within the first 12 hours the campaign went live, an amount which doubled within the next 36 hours, and is now on track for a $300,000 haul when the campaign closes at the end of the month.
So when it comes to exposure and availability, The Apprentice is not going to have much trouble. That the campaign’s backers are so enthusiastic in pumping excess money into this movie’s distribution solely to “stick it to Trump” instead of making strategic long-term investments in progressive journalism outlets is… a discussion for another time.
Agreed.