Well, what a difference a few days makes, right? Last week, I wrote (here) that we basically were at a standstill in the awards season. The Golden Globes were about to happen, the Critics Choice Awards were delayed, and the Screen Actors Guild was impending. The Globes didn’t move the needle, obviously, though one result may have been a sign of what’s to come. SAG, however, definitely upended the dance card, at least a bit. The first Guild to chime in definitely had more than its share of surprises, regardless of how reliable a predictor they are these days. So, it feels like a perfect point to share updated Oscar predictions today, as well as muse about where we now stand.
A quick not about the Screen Actors Guild. Because the group is so big, and because the nominations come from a random assortment of the Guild, that committee isn’t necessarily a reflection of the season. That’s why SAG has sort of fallen behind BAFTA and PGA in terms of Academy relatability. So, while a snub is notable, a win is perhaps less so, as we’ve seen recently. That being said, yes, Kristen Stewart missing in Best Actress here is a blow to her chances. As some of you know, no one has ever won Actress without at least a SAG nomination. So, she’s fighting against history.
SAG followed the beat of their own drummer, to say the least. Whether it was the Stewart snub, The Power of the Dog missing in Best Ensemble, or Belfast underperforming, they seemed to spread the wealth. While they seem to love Jared Leto these days, they also kept Ben Affleck‘s hopes for a Best Supporting Actor nomination alive. They also boosted Jennifer Hudson, as well as House of Gucci in general. They were a lot, that goes without saying. But, that’s SAG.
Now, what we can take from all this is that it does seem like the race is still scattershot. That being said, it does appear like Nicole Kidman is the actual frontrunner in Best Actress, not Stewart. Part of that can be chalked up to Being the Ricardos being more Oscar friendly that Spencer, but there’s also at least some degree of Kidman being seen as more friendly to the whole process than Stewart. It’s not a done deal, but you have to feel better being in her position. As for Best Picture, it continues to seem like Belfast vs The Power of the Dog, at least until proven otherwise.
Of course, one Guild does not a season make. We still have the Producers Guild to give us more of an idea about Best Picture, as well as the Directors Guild. Don’t sleep on BAFTA, either, as their recent release of their long list shows where they have their heads at. It’s important to note what SAG did, but don’t necessarily take it as gospel. There’s still a lot to come.
As for what’s to come, it’s a waiting game for those other Guilds. Once we have that information, it will be a little easier to try and extrapolate for the Academy Awards. That being said, Oscar does do their own thing, to some degree. I’m currently trying to talk to Academy members to see where their heads are at, but that’s a longer process. For now, almost all possibilities, outside of the longer shots, appear to still be on the table.
Below, you can see not just my Academy Award picks, but my SAG ones as well (here). As a reminder, here is where all predictions can be found, including the Film Independent Spirit Awards (here). More precursors will be added as it all progresses on, obviously. Then, it’ll be a matter of updating them accordingly. As always, definitely chime in with your own thoughts and picks. Just be sure to keep it respectful!
Here now are my up to date Oscar predictions. Sit tight for plenty more to come, obviously. Not just predictions, either, but analysis of where we stand in the season. We’re at the point now where changes are coming, with some of them being permanent ones. So, strap in for the rest of the ride…
Stay tuned for another update very soon!