In an alternate universe, I’d be writing today about how we have two major precursors to pay attention to this weekend. One of them likes to think it matters, while one does actually kind of matter, though neither hold a candle to the Guilds, which are still to come. Well, times change. Not only have the Critics Choice Awards (the one that actually matters a little bit) been postponed, the Golden Globes are holding a private event that won’t be made available at all, except via some sort of a press release. Sure, I’m a CCA member and not a member of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, but we all knew that the Globes were never going to matter this year. The spell has been broken. Even more so now that they’re essentially going dark, they have no Oscar sway. Still, this was always a day I pegged for updated Academy Award predictions, so they’ve been tinkered with anyway.
Here’s the thing, we’re still waiting for something to move the needle in basically all of the races. What I said last week still stands. The major Guilds will tell us more about what the Oscars will do, plain and simple. Their nominations are not far off, either, so once those announce, with presumed surprises and snubs, that will be when I see the sea change begin. The Academy Awards obviously have their presumed frontrunners for now, but if they stand up to the Guild section of the precursor season, then we’ll know they’re looking good for gold statues.
If you want to see my Globe picks, they’re here. Of course, they don’t matter, but still…why not? CCA is still figuring out their plan for a show, so when that gets closer, I’ll give my thoughts. As for the HFPA, unless something drastic happens, both at this current editing and in future years, they’re going to be an afterthought. As I’ve said, it’s going to be the Guilds that sway the Academy. That’s just the way it is.
My ever so slightly new Oscar Predictions can be found here. They’re going to be updated again shortly, especially considering the bigger precursor nominations that are coming our way. In the meantime, feel free to take in the Golden Globe Awards on Sunday, which is to say, sit tight for the results. Sorry, I couldn’t resist that one…
Stay tuned for another update very soon!