Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: The Actor Awards and PGA Are About to Provide Some Clarity (or Have Chaos Reign) as Final Voting Kicks Off

Yesterday, final voting began for the 98th Academy Awards! Can you believe it? In just over two weeks, the Oscars will be held. So, this next week is crucial, as Academy members are filling out their ballots, all while major Guild precursors are being held. This is the time to really look and see what voters are potentially thinking. Today, with a pair of big precursors going down, a predictions update is here as well, with another certainly coming next week as well.

This weekend, the Producers Guild Awards and what used to be called the Screen Actors Guild Awards (now the Actor Awards) are being held. PGA and the precursor formerly known as SAG are often reliable Oscar precursors, albeit hardly perfect ones. Combined with the previous Directors Guild Awards results and BAFTA, we’re starting to get a sense of who and what are seriously in line for wins. Some categories are feeling locked and loaded. Others? They’re more wide open than previously expected.

The Actor Awards have four categories that are up in the air (not counting the Stunt category), which is wild. Then, there’s Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture, which is going to Jessie Buckley for Hamnet, without question. Anything else would be a momentous shock. Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role in a Motion Picture would seem lined up for Timonthée Chalamet to win for Marty Supreme, but no one has ever won two of these in a row, opening him up to an upset by Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon, for example.

The Supporting categories are wide open and this show will potentially clear up or cause more chaos for both. Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture could go to either Amy Madigan for Weapons, Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners, or Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another. There’s a world where the winner here is just who ends up winning the Academy Award. Then, with Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture, we’re notably missing Sentimental Value‘s Stellan Skarsgård. His candidacy is buoyed by a win by either Benicio del Toro for One Battle After Another or one of the non Oscar nominated gentlemen. Then again, that could also mean the chaos favors Sinners‘ Delroy Lindo, only nominated at Oscar, to pull the upset. Jacob Elordi (for Frankenstein) or Sean Penn (for One Battle After Another) winning could make them the one to beat, though neither has the full feel of a winner, which is fascinating. Finally, the Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture category features One Battle After Another up against Sinners. More on that battle below, but this does feel like an incredibly close race, maybe even more so than with PGA.

As for PGA, it comes down One Battle After Another versus Sinners. This is the real showdown, precursor wise, between these two frontrunners. Both have very strong cases and no other real contenders to deal with, barring some sort of Hamnet shocker. One Battle After Another has been the frontrunner for months now and has solid precursor wins in top categories, while Sinners has the record-breaking Oscar nomination haul, as well as what seems like an added bit of late-breaking momentum. So, it’s nearly a pick-em. Exciting, right?

Overall, we’re going to know more on Sunday night, though it won’t set the Oscars in stone. There’s still a degree of playing hunches, listening to voters, and trying to figure out what the silent majority is thinking. There’s two more updates to come, so I have a bit of time. Not much, but a bit. For now, updated predictions tell my side of the story…

My prior predictions article (found here) is available for your perusal, which was my initial slate of picks as Phase Two got underway. Now, we know some of the Guilds, with two more about to come and hopefully give us some more information soon!

Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar, the first one during the voting period, which is officially underway. I also have final predictions for The Actors (here), alongside PGA (here) and WGA (here) available to check out. It’s exciting times as the nominations are now in the rearview mirror. So, sit tight for much more as the season begins to wrap up, potentially with some surprises still to come…

Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions soon!