Joey Magidson
Ladies and gentlemen, can you believe we’re well into precursor season now? Yes, the first wave of precursors have hit over the past week or so, bringing the awards season into a brighter light. Obviously, nothing yet has told us anything of note, but that doesn’t mean it isn’t still fun. We spoke about this one the most recent Awards Radar Podcast here and I wrote about it on Friday in a new Oscar predictions piece here. Today, however, I wanted you all to chime in. So, we have an Awards Radar Community Question to share. Simply put, what are your thoughts on the first wave of precursors?
If you’ve been delighted to see certain contenders faring well, that’s definitely something to share with us. We’ve seen Paul Thomas Anderson‘s One Battle After Another off to a very strong start, while other potential players like Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You gain some momentum. If you’re thrilled that Jafar Panahi is looking like a Best Director threat for It Was Just an Accident or that Benicio del Toro is ahping up to be the strong Supporting Actor candidate from One Battle After Another, these are definitely things to get into here.
That being said, maybe you just have broader thoughts about the precursors themselves? If you always look forward to AFI or NBR announcing and have things to say, we’d be thrilled to hear them. The same goes for the Critics Choice nominations. Hell, since I’m a voting member, if we pissed you off somehow, or tickled you pink with some of our selections, I have no issue with you wanting me to answer for it.
Mostly, we just want you to start the conversation. Whatever your precursor thoughts are, we’re eager to know about them. So, don’t be shy, chime in, and make sure you let us know what you’re thinking. Tis the season for awards chatter…
What are your thoughts on the precursors so far? Let us know!
My favorite developments from the early precursors:
• One Battle After Another being so dominant means it is guaranteed to have a strong showing on Oscar nomination morning. I was worried that its struggles at the box office (it did well… ish financially, especially for a movie directed by Paul Thomas Anderson and being something not based on an established franchise IP, but it’s not like the people who funded such an expensive production are raking in huge profits, either) would translate to a chilly reception when the awards started getting handed out. But the near-unanimous critical consensus makes me very confident the film will win something at the end of all of this, even if a competitor like Hamnet or Frankenstein ultimately end up on top. Maybe just Adapted Screenplay, maybe just Best Director, but I feel confident in saying that it’s not going home completely empty-handed on Oscar night.
• Rose Byrne! Granted, winning so many critics awards doesn’t automatically translate to an Oscar nomination (just ask Marianne Jean-Baptiste), but certainly doesn’t hurt her chances, either!
• Joel Edgerton! I’ve always liked him as an actor, but with the possible exception of Warrior, I always felt I was still waiting for him to get a role that would truly showcase a “Wow!” performance from him. And then I saw Train Dreams. This would be a perfect first Oscar nomination for his career, and I’m so happy to see the critics orgs keep his name in the conversation.
• Amy Madigan! What a weird Cinderella awards story, but I am here for it. She was scary, uncanny, funny, and totally committed in a movie that was so much more entertaining and fun than it had any “right” to be. It’s also nice to see Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas brought up a lot, too. I thought she would end up the “forgotten” member of Sentimental Value‘s ensemble.
• The Perfect Neighbor becoming the feature-length documentary frontrunner. I was honestly worried it would be too upsetting to gain “traction,” and I’m so relieved that I’ve been proven wrong.
My least-favorite developments from the early precursors:
• The rampant category fraud perpetuated by these early precursors. I’m resigned to the fact that I’ve effectively lost this debate with AMPAS after Kieran Culkin and Zoe Saldaña took home “supporting” Oscars for unambiguous, inarguable leading roles earlier this year. As far as I’m concerned, they effectively crossed the Rubicon with those two decisions on the same night. Category fraud is not only the norm, it’s more or less encouraged by the Academy Awards from now on. I’ll just have to accept that. But for critics organizations – groups that have no incentive whatsoever to just submissively go along with bad-faith campaign strategies – to straight-up lie to both the public and, frankly, themselves about the kinds of roles Paul Mescal and Ariana Grande performed this year is a dire reflection of their collective integrity. It’s just another example of how we keep just taking a corporation’s word for it against our common sense.
• Speaking of Grande, what in the fresh hell is going on with Wicked: For Good showing up all over the place? Are people actually enthusiastic about this movie? Dune: Part Two received far fewer awards and nominations than the first one did because the general consensus (which I agreed with) was that it was a noticeable step down from its predecessor. So why is Wicked: For Good scooping up nods left and right despite the quality gap between it and its predecessor being far more pronounced?
• Roofman being completely shut out. This was a smart, funny, sexy, heartfelt crime movie that I am positive would have been a huge crowdpleasing hit with audiences from the 90s or even early Aughts. Maybe nominations for Channing Tatum and Kirsten Dunst were wishful thinking (though both of them absolutely deserve to be considered), but not even showing up anywhere for its screenplay is insane to me.
• Frankenstein somehow becoming a critical darling. I have come to depend on my mother as my barometer for what elderly “normie” moviegoers think of the latest films, and even she thought it was underwhelming. For so many of the same critics who noted what a superfluous character Henrich Harlander was, or how overproduced and murkily-shot the whole thing was, to then turn around and shower it with love really confuses me.
Roofman being basically shut out is a real bummer, I agree.