Joey Magidson
Can you believe we’re already in the middle of November? Time sure flies, doesn’t it? Well, with just over a month and a half left in the year, it feels like there’s still so much to figure out, awards-wise. To that end, not only is it time for another update to my Academy Award predictions, but it also feels like a moment to look a bit at the Golden Globes. So, both sets of predictions have been updated this week, with some thoughts on the latter coming your way today.
When it comes to the Globes, they remain in a transitional period. They’re not the joke they once were, all things considered, though they still don’t have any real Academy crossover. At the same time, last year proved that they could put forth serious nominations and interesting winners, setting things up well for this year. If that’s again the case this time around, a Golden Globe nomination and win can actually be a real feather in the cap of a contender. Baby steps here, to be sure, but what we saw last year was undeniably steps in right direction.
Contender-wise, Hamnet and One Battle After Another appear like the frontrunners in the Drama and Comedy/Musical categories, respectively. The Globe lineup can be friendlier than the Oscars in terms of international fare as well, so keep an eye out for how films like It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, and Sentimental Value do. Any over-performances there, especially if they do well in the Acting lineups, can be a show of force that other precursor voters will take notice of. That momentum is where the Academy influence can sometimes be felt. Beyond that, it’s also just where you’ll see titles that may have a harder time with the Oscars have a better shot at recognition. Even if Is This Thing On?, Roofman, and Song Sung Blue wind up shut out by the Academy, Globe voters may well see fit to show them some love.
Remember, the Golden Globes are not a Guild, so the Oscar crossover and impact is minimal. Still, getting cited is better than getting snubbed, of course, so films and performances on the list will reap more benefits than those that don’t make the cut. Right now, a nomination keeps you in the early part of the conversation. Those nominations are less than a month away, on December 8th. A win in January? Well, a good speech does often perk up the ears of an Oscar voter, so that can’t fully be discounted.
It’s still too early to make any real declarative statements, but the Best Picture race at the Academy Awards does still look likely to feature Hamnet and One Battle After Another at the top of any prediction lineup. As mentioned above, the frontrunners in the two major Golden Globe categories and seem destined to duke it out at the Oscars. Lingering behind but still very much in it is Sinners, while Wicked: For Good has a chance to be a top tier contender as well. How the Globes handle these films will potentially say something about what could happen, but it obviously would only be one piece of the puzzle.
My prior early prediction article (found here) is available for your perusal, and can see some more of the changes I’ve been making along the way, including some newer and fairly notable ones. Now is the time where we’re starting to drill down on which movies seem best positioned for the precursor season. Soon, it’ll be time for the precursors to really chime in, which will further move the needle. Again, we’re in the thick of it now, ladies and gentlemen.
Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at advance Oscar predictions, as well as now Golden Globe predictions, right here at Awards Radar. The changes are coming, and will continue to come, more and more, as the film festivals have wrapped up, with the precursors on tap to begin in earnest very shortly. So, sit tight for much more as the season reveals itself to us…
Stay tuned for another update to all of these predictions in the very near future!
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