Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: What Has Festival Season Presented Us With?

In what feels like the blink of an eye, festival season is largely in the books. What began with the Venice Film Festival and Telluride Film Festival back at the end of August, transitioning to the Toronto International Film Festival in September, has now come close to the conclusion with the end of the 63rd New York Film Festival. With that moment hitting earlier in the week, it feels like a good time to see where we are, including with updated Academy Award predictions.

For those who aren’t aware, the New York Film Festival came to a close on Monday, more or less ending the fall festival season, at least for the moment. The big glut of Venice, Telluride, TIFF, and then NYFF is where the awards season truly kicks off every year, with 2025 being no exception. So, with NYFF the final piece of that first puzzle, what did they present us with?

In terms of films that hadn’t been seen before, the two big ones were Is This Thing On? and Marty Supreme. The former debuted to good reviews as the Closing Night selection, though feels like less of an Oscar player than just a quality movie. The latter, however, was the Secret Screening this year and blew the doors off of the place. Without question, this is the title that has had the most upward mobility out of the fest. Other movies that played and have Academy Award hopes include A House of Dynamite, It Was Just an Accident, Jay Kelly, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sentimental Value, and Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere. So, the festival was almost a highlight real of what Telluride, Toronto, and Venice put forth in August/September.

NYFF will see its biggest Oscar impact in how Marty Supreme does. At the very least, Timothée Chalamet is now in the thick of the Best Actor race. If Chalamet emerges as the frontrunner, it will have started in New York. That being said, having only played at one festival, albeit to a very enthusiastic audience, is not enough information to declare anything a wrap. Instead, it’s just another piece of the puzzle, presenting us with a contender we assumed would be in play, but now actually know will be.

It’s still too early to make any real declarative statements, but the Best Picture race does look likely to feature Hamnet and One Battle After Another at the top of any prediction lineup, with Sentimental Value among the other titles heavily in play, in whatever order you’d like. Beyond those? The precursors will soon enough begin to have their say. Consider this once again just a light state of the race for now.

My prior early prediction article (found here) is available for your perusal, and can see some more of the changes I’ve been making along the way, including some fairly notable ones. The festivals more or less have had their say, so things are moving in the right direction. Soon, it’ll be precursor season, which will further move the needle. Again, we’re in the thick of it now, ladies and gentlemen.

Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at advance Oscar predictions (which, again, officially now will just be considered regular old new predictions, as opposed to year in advance) right here at Awards Radar. The changes are coming, and will continue to come, more and more, as the fall festivals wrap up, followed by precursors. So, sit tight for much more as the season reveals itself to us…

Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions as the fall festival season fallout continues!