Joey Magidson
My how September has changed things. When we were wrapping up August, the start of the fall film festival season was upon us. That was where many a movie would debut, hoping to catapult from the festivals to the Academy Awards. Now, with a good portion of festival season already having been completed, it feels like a perfect time to do an Oscar vibe check. Where do we stand after the big fests have come and gone?
The past few weeks have seen the Venice Film Festival, Telluride Film Festival, and Toronto International Film Festival all go down, with the New York Film Festival about to begin. That leaves almost all titles as having been seen by at least some pundits, which means awards season can soon begin. At this notable juncture in Oscar season, an update to those predictions seemed to be well in order, so that’s been done today as well…
Venice kicked things off at the end of August and wound up concluding with Father Mother Sister Brother taking the top prize. That may prove to be an unlikely Oscar contender, so I’d look more to A House of Dynamite, which blew away folks at Venice, as well as the likes of Bugonia, Jay Kelly, and The Smashing Machine (more on those below) as the contenders to come out of the festival. After the Hunt, however, found a far less friendly audience, putting its awards potential very much in question. There’s also The Testament of Ann Lee, but without distribution, that movie, as well as Amanda Seyfriend‘s performance, may have to wait until next year.
Telluride picked up a few days later and moved us from August to September. There, where I was on the ground, we saw Bugonia and Jay Kelly have even stronger receptions, while Hamnet debuted to near universal acclaim. World Premieres here also included Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, which was well received, though on the flip side, Ballad of a Small Player more or less landed with a thud, taking it largely out of contention.
TIFF was right afterwards, as always, and featured several of the above titles also playing the fest. I was there and caught up with Sentimental Value, which has been a surefire player since Cannes, as well as a host of other flicks, including the aforementioned The Smashing Machine, which was a hot ticket. World Premieres really only launched Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, perhaps unsurprisingly, while the likes of The Lost Bus, Rental Family, and Roofman debuted well enough, though without the kind of acclaim that translates to Oscar. However, while Hamnet won the Audience Award, Frankenstein was the runner up, which snuck at Telluride before premiering at TIFF.
Next we have NYFF. This is where A House of Dynamite will attract more fans, while things like After the Hunt will hope for a friendlier audience. The big World Premiere will be Is This Thing On?, representing one of the big X factors remaining, while Jay Kelly and Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere are other flicks heading to the Big Apple. It’s also a spot to catch up on some international contenders, including It Was Just an Accident and No Other Choice, among many other titles.
At the same time, the festival buzz has very much been usurped by One Battle After Another. Paul Thomas Anderson‘s film first screened during TIFF, leading some on the ground there who would otherwise have been at those first screenings, yours truly included, to wonder if the movie perhaps was being hidden? Well, that’s decidedly not the case, as the reviews have now hit and are pretty much best of the year material. I’ll be chiming in on it in a couple of days, but we may well have ourselves an early frontrunner.
It’s too early to make any real declarative statements, but the Best Picture race does look likely to feature Hamnet, One Battle After Another, and Sentimental Value at the top of any prediction lineup, in whatever order you’d like. Beyond that? The precursors will soon enough begin to have their say. Consider this just a light state of the race for now.
My prior early prediction article (found here) is available for your perusal, and can see some more of the changes I’ve been making along the way, including some real notable ones. The festivals are having their say, as are at least one fall wide release, so things are moving in new and exciting directions. Soon, it’ll be precursor season, which will further move the needle. We’re in the thick of it now, ladies and gentlemen.
Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at advance Oscar predictions (which, again, officially now will just be considered regular old new predictions, as opposed to year in advance) right here at Awards Radar. The changes are coming, and will continue to come, more and more, as the fall festivals continue and then conclude. So, sit tight for much more as I report in from NYFF and beyond…
Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions as the fall festival season continues on!
Are there any festival darlings that you think might land with a thud when they debut to general audiences? There’s always at least one or two every year; Maria, for example, was widely purported to be a sure shot for Angelina Jolie out of Toronto and then it… wasn’t.
Maria was Telluride and Venice, but yes, I did think she was basically the frontrunner after seeing it at Telluride and obviously, it was not to be.
I do think there’s a segment of audience member who will not respond to Hamnet at all and wonder what all the fuss is about. Likewise, I think people expecting something more narratively driven and action packed than what The Smashing Machine is doing will be disappointed.
Then, there’s always the well regarded festival player, like Roofman, that ultimately a general audience sadly does not seem interested in seeing.