Year in Advance Oscar Predictions: An Early Summer Look at the State of the Race to Come

I know it feels like we just crowned Anora as Best Picture at the Academy Awards, but we’ve nearly reached the midway point of 2025. Most of the Oscar players are still to be released, and even some have yet to be revealed at all, so we’re hardly in the thick of it. Still, as we reach the end of June, it felt like a good time to check in and see where we are. So, predictions have been updated, with some small thoughts on the race to come below.

Just in the past few days, we’ve had some awards season related developments. The trailers for Bugonia (just yesterday) and Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere have whet appetites for fall/winter prestige fare., There’s also been release dates announced by Netflix for potential contenders A House of Dynamite and Train Dreams. One or both of them could end up major priorities for the streamer, especially since the latter was majorly buzzed about at the Sundance Film Festival. None of it necessarily means anything, of course, but it’s all information to take in. For me, the first look at Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere did nothing to make me think it couldn’t be this year’s A Complete Unknown (or better), but there’s much still to be determined there.

In terms of things out in release, the possible contenders to look out for really are The Life of Chuck and Sinners. The former impressed at the Toronto International Film Festival last year, obviously has that TIFF People’s Choice Award under its belt, and some real hardcore fans (myself included), which could portend a decent amount of attention during the precursor season. Plus, being a NEON title these days certainly doesn’t hurt. It could also be ignored, too, especially without massive box office. Quality wise, it has the goods, so it’s just a matter of keeping it on the minds of voters when the weather chills. As for the latter, it has all of the ingredients to sustain all season, give or take genre (which I wrote about here). There’s a good chance that Warner Bros. spends the money to keep it from fading away, and if that happens, watch out. Until then, it’s hypothetical, but don’t be shocked if it winds up with a massive campaign as the year ends.

Be sure to take any bold proclamations with a massive grain of salt. This is still guessing season, with anything firmer than that simply presumptions. At the same time, certain titles pass the Oscar smell test in a way that others don’t. So, that kind of sixth sense or intuition is always good to possess. Once the summer ends, the fall festival season begins, and that’s the first real place since the Cannes Film Festival where some movies of note will make their stand.

Remember, it’s still really quite early. My last predictions article (found here and about the Cannes titles) may look pretty similar to this new one, but that’s the nature of the summer beast right now. Cannes did help a little bit with some small changes, but I’m still remaining very conservative. Plus, I’m still trying to tell a story with my nominees. That certainly can change, in terms of being conservative, but it won’t be for a bit, since nothing concrete, Oscar-wise, usually happens in the summer. We’re just playing a waiting game.

As always, you can see my newest crack at advance Oscar predictions here at Awards Radar. We shall see, but this list is sure to change once again when I give it another update, likely in a month or so. Until then, the usual suspects from the first few rankings still loom fairly large, give or take the aforementioned Cannes contenders and the like…

Stay tuned for an update to these Oscar predictions as the summer continues!