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Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: The Post-SAG Fallout

An Oscar statue is pictured during the Oscars Foreign Language Film Award Directors Reception in advance of the 88th Academy Awards in Hollywood, Los Angeles, California February 26, 2016. The Oscars will be presented February 28, 2016. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri – GF10000325443

Last week, I set the stage (here) for what might be happening with the evolving second phase of the awards season. It was written with the Screen Actors Guild Awards only a few days out. Now, with it in the rearview mirror, we have SAG’s impact, as well as the rest of the precursors, to consider. As such, not only do I have new Oscar predictions for you (alongside other updates), I wanted to talk a bit about the state of the race. So, join me now for a brief look at where we are in the quest for some Academy Award glory!

SAG cleared up a few things, but also muddied the waters a bit. That’s just how it goes. Two of the acting categories now seem sewn up, with Will Smith and Ariana DeBose looking for room on their mantle for Academy Awards, while the other two had some massive changes. That’s to say nothing of how their Ensemble win for CODA may have upped its Oscar chances in the Best Picture race, but more on that in a bit. First, the fallout from the biggest shocker of last Sunday night is on the docket…

As mentioned in a piece earlier in the week (here), we now have a chaotic Best Actress race. Jessica Chastain‘s win at SAG has vaulted her from potentially the fifth spot and just happy to be nominated all the way to arguably frontrunner status. Honestly, you can slot any of the women in any of the positions and have a rationale for it, as I spoke about in the aforementioned piece. However, Chastain has to be sitting in a pretty good place now. We’ll see what happens next weekend at the Critics Choice Awards, but she could well be on her way to finally taking home the gold.

Elsewhere, there is a lot of buzz about CODA potentially overtaking not just Belfast in Best Picture rankings, but The Power of the Dog as well. I know it’s a trendy pick right now, but I’m not 100% sure I buy it. Basically, I want to see what the Producers Guild does before committing. If PGA goes elsewhere than The Power of the Dog, I’ll be more inclined to make the switch. I’m not doubting the CODA momentum, and the more that the real world makes yearn for escapism, the better it’ll do on the preferential ballot, but many of the same claims go for Belfast as well. At the same time, that film needs a win somewhere in the worst way. Whichever movie starts to take home prizes over the next few weeks, that seems like the horse to back. Essentially, I’m playing it conservative, at least for the moment.

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So, where do we stand now? SAG is done, with the Film Independent Spirit Awards on Sunday. After that, we’re just waiting on the Directors Guild, the Producers Guild, and to a lesser extent, the Writers Guild. Those will be our remaining Oscar clues. Once we have them, it’ll be full steam ahead to finalizing Academy Award predictions. Three more weeks to go. Can you believe it?

You can see my various predictions here for the awards races still to be decided. In addition to the Academy Awards (here), you can find DGA (here), PGA (here), WGA (here), and even the Spirit Awards (here). Take a gander and we’ll see how they all turn out, before the month concludes. We’re in the endgame now, to be sure. Feel free to chime in with your own picks as well!

Again, my updated Oscar predictions are right here. Look for another update in the next week or so, though astute readers will notice that certain categories get tweaked in between. Sit tight for the rest of the excitement, since this roller coaster still has some bumps along the way to share with us all…

Stay tuned for another update to my post SAG predictions very soon!

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Richard Green
Richard Green
2 months ago

For Oscar predictions I’ve currently got the same as you except I’m debating between Cruella & Tammy Faye for makeup plus I’ve got Dune winning both production design and cinematography. Nightmare Alley’s design is mightily impressive but in my opinion it draws attention to itself too much whereas Dune’s blends in seamlessly. The Power of the Dog’s cinematography is probably the most beautiful but Dune has so many extraordinary images that if you go for it in Design and Visual Effects, I feel you also have to add cinematography.

Richard Green
Richard Green
2 months ago

Absolutely but I’m also recalling that when Gravity and Fury Road each won six below the line Oscars (like I’m predicting Dune to do) they both also had directing nominations which Dune doesn’t have so will that result in Dune not doing as well as them.

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Written by Joey Magidson

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