Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: All Eyes on SAG as the First Phase Two Domino Falls

This weekend, Phase Two of the awards season finally gets underway. Yes, the Screen Actors Guild Awards are going down, with definite Oscar implications. Who and what take home SAG prizes on Sunday will certainly influence how the Academy votes. Will we see all of the winners repeat at the Academy Awards next month? Well, that remains to be seen, especially since SAG isn’t quite as reliable as they’ve been in the past. At the same time, they have at least a few cases in which they will undoubtedly be swaying folks. So, with my Oscar and SAG picks tinkered with (and finalized in the latter case), we can run down where I stand today…

With SAG on Sunday, we’re going to be focusing on that precursor. Of course, it’s because of the proximity to the event, but also just because there’s not a ton new Oscar-wise (besides things to be made about, as I’ve already ranted about here). So, SAG it is. Now, let us get on with it and talk about the first Guild domino to fall!

Best Supporting Actress seems pretty clear-cut to me, with Ariana DeBose poised to win here for West Side Story, on the way to an Oscar. There doesn’t seem to be anyone who can stop her, especially with the Academy Award and SAG difference here. If there’s a spoiler to be found, it might be Kirsten Dunst for The Power of the Dog. If she pulls the upset here, watch out, but I wouldn’t bank on it happening.

On the other hand, Best Supporting Actor could be poised for a turn. Now, I’m not saying that The Power of the Dog‘s Kodi Smit-McPhee isn’t the frontrunner. He definitely is. All I’m saying is he feels like a non-traditional winner, especially with the Oscars, so keep that in mind. SAG-wise, the only person to beat him who clearly would translate to Oscar is Troy Kotsur for CODA, and it’s not too far-fetched. I’m not predicting the upset, but it does loom as a possibility…

With Best Actor, it could well be a coronation for Will Smith in King Richard. A win here and he might be unbeatable. However, if either Benedict Cumberbatch for The Power of the Dog or Andrew Garfield for Tick, Tick…Boom! surprises, all bets are off with Oscar. For now, Smith is well on his way to an Academy Award, with SAG helping out.

Best Actress, of course, is anyone’s ballgame. Penelope Cruz and Kristen Stewart aren’t here, while Lady Gaga and Jennifer Hudson were snubbed by the Academy, so the ladies also in the Oscar lineup are hoping for a boost. To that end, it seems like a close race here between Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye, Olivia Colman for The Lost Daughter, and Nicole Kidman for Being the Ricardos. A win here is a big boost, so I’m predicting Kidman, but it truly could go to anyone.

Now, Best Ensemble brings us home. The race is between Belfast, CODA, Don’t Look Up, House of Gucci, and King Richard. Four of the five translate to the Best Picture lineup, so that narrows things down a bit. CODA needs this to hang on with a chance to take the top prize, while a win by Don’t Look Up would vault it into the top three. King Richard seems unlikely, while Belfast is the safe pick. If it hangs on, it remains the alternative to The Power of the Dog. I’m sticking with the safe frontrunner here, but it’s certainly vulnerable.

Of course, you can see all of my SAG picks here. They reflect what I wrote above, but the full order is there, as well as the Stunt category. It’s bound to be a memorable show, especially with the wide-open Actress race. Anything can happen, and when that’s the case, it very often does!

I updated my Oscar predictions as well (here), but next week is when some potential Academy Award movement will happen. Until then, we wait. So enjoy SAG on Sunday and we’ll see how that impacts these predictions going forward…

Stay tuned for another predictions update soon and sit tight for the SAG results on Sunday night!