What a week, right? Hot on the heels of last week, where we were teased with the Film Independent Spirit Awards and their nominations, precursor season kicked into overdrive over the past 48 hours. First, the Golden Globe nominations arrived, with the Hollywood Foreign Press Association listing very on brand citations for them. Then, the Screen Actors Guild chimed in, and, well…they cleared almost nothing up. Is that the way things are going to go here in 2021? It certainly seems like it. However, that won’t stop me from trying to make sense of it all today. Plus, updated predictions for all of the above!
The Golden Globes started things off by breathing some life into David Fincher‘s Mank. It led the way with six citations, followed closely by Aaron Sorkin‘s The Trial of the Chicago 7 with five nods, making for a good Wednesday morning for Netflix (outside of Spike Lee‘s Da 5 Bloods, which got shut out). Emerald Fennell‘s Promising Young Woman did well, too, getting four noms overall. Fennell cracking the Best Director lineup felt big, though remember…it’s the Globes. The HFPA does their own thing, to say the least. That was the first domino to fall.
SAG continued the trend of surprises and snubs, perhaps unsurprisingly. Snub wise, we saw Delroy Lindo somehow again miss in Actor for Da 5 Bloods (even as the film itself cracked Best Ensemble), while Paul Raci for Sound of Metal (in Best Supporting Actor), along with Ellen Burstyn for Pieces of a Woman and Amanda Seyfried for Mank (in Best Supporting Actress) were left out. Surprises here included Jared Leto in Supporting Actor for The Little Things, along with Helena Zengel in Supporting Actress for News of the World. Also notable was, like with the Spirit Awards last week, Promising Young Woman missed in the top category, even while scoring elsewhere. This is a Guild, so they’re worth paying attention to, even if they’re hardly a carbon copy of what Academy members will ultimately end up doing.
What does it all mean for Oscar? Well, a few trends are beginning to show. The Trial of the Chicago 7 is holding serve as potentially the film to beat, along with Nomadland. Lindo is falling behind in the Actor race, while Zendaya has so far failed to make a dent in Best Actress for her work in Malcolm & Marie. On the flip side, Glenn Close may in fact be moving towards her first Academy Award, in Best Supporting Actress for Hillbilly Elegy. Then, there’s the big WTF of the week, which is both awards bodies citing Jared Leto in Best Supporting Actor for The Little Things. No, I don’t get it either, folks.
Predictions have been updated across the board, and not just for the Academy Awards, where I know you’re dying to see if I moved Leto into the Supporting Actor top five. Yes, in addition to Oscar, we have winner predictions for the Golden Globes and SAG. Plus, we have initial picks for the Directors Guild and Producers Guild awards. So, be sure to look at those DGA and PGA predictions, as well.
Stay tuned to see how it all turns out, but if you want to quickly see how my Academy Award picks are going, here they are now:
Best Picture – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Second Spot: Nomadland)
Best Director – Chloe Zhao for Nomadland (Second Spot: David Fincher for Mank)
Best Actor – Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Second Spot: Anthony Hopkins for The Father)
Best Actress – Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman (Second Spot: Viola davis for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)
Best Supporting Actor – Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah (Second Spot: Sacha Baron Cohen for The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Best Supporting Actress – Glenn Close for Hillbilly Elegy (Second Spot: Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)
Best Original Screenplay – Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman (Second Spot: Aaron Sorkin for The Trial of the Chicago 7)
Best Adapted Screenplay – Kemp Powers for One Night in Miami… (Second Spot: Chloe Zhao for Nomadland)
Best Animated Feature – Soul (Second Spot: Wolfwalkers)
Best Production Design – Mank (Second Spot: Tenet)
Best Cinematography – Nomadland (Second Spot: Mank)
Best Costume Design – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Second Spot: Emma.)
Best Film Editing – The Trial of the Chicago 7 (Second Spot: Tenet)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Second Spot: The Prom)
Best Sound – Sound of Metal (Second Spot: Tenet)
Best Visual Effects – Tenet (Second Spot: The Midnight Sky)
Best Original Score – Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for Soul (Second Spot: James Newton Howard for News of the World)
Best Original Song – Diane Warren – lo Si (Seen) from The Life Ahead (Second Spot: Larry Groupé, Rod Lurie, and Rita Wilson – Everybody Cries from The Outpost)
Best Documentary Feature – Dick Johnson is Dead (Second Spot: Crip Camp)
Best International Feature – Another Round (Second Spot: I’m No Longer Here)
Another update is coming next week, including Independent Spirit Award predictions, so sit tight!