Year in Advance Oscar Predictions: Far Out Thoughts on What The Academy Might Be Thinking in 2027 (Part One)

Surprise! I know I normally take a longer break before debuting Year in Advance Oscar predictions, but I’m doing something a bit different this year. Plus, the quality and success of Project Hail Mary actually had me excited to think about something a year off, so that felt like a bit of a sign. Normally, I wait until around when the Cannes Film Festival lineup comes out, so there’s at least a broad sense of some potential players. This year, I’m capping off March and a late Academy Awards by dipping a very small toe in the water…

You’ll see some thoughts on what The Academy could be in line to gravitate towards in 2027 below, but for this update, I’m only looking at the Best Picture lineup. Next month, I’ll probably include all of the big eight categories, with the below the line fields joining the above the line ones somewhere in late April or early May. So, this is a three part beginning to Year in Advance predictions!

As I always say in pieces like this, Year in Advance predictions are either loved or loathed by those who follow the awards season. On the one hand, they’re fun and a glimpse at what the Oscars could potentially look like. On the other, they’re often a completely out of context look at the awards landscape, based mostly on buzz, hype, and speculation, as opposed to anything concrete. I’ve always been in the former camp, though in the couple of years, I’ve been moving towards the latter, where I almost now fully reside. Still, it’s part of the job, and I do actually enjoy it, so…

The past few Oscar seasons have certainly been instructive in some ways. For one, the last few years have proven that when it comes to Best Picture and statistics, only those from this modern era of preferential balloting need apply, full stop. For example, this particular reading made CODA make a lot more sense than a longer read on the category in its year, with the same being said four years for Everything Everywhere All At Once. Three years ago, however, Oppenheimer just ran away with it, negating some of the sleuthing we usually do. Two years ago, Anora threaded a real interesting needle by dominating, which historical statistics would have predicted, but in the vessel of an independent film that previously would be far afield from what the Academy honors in that manner. Last year, late breaking enthusiasm for an alternative blinded us a bit to the overwhelming precursor dominance that led to what, ultimately, was probably a fairly convincing win for One Battle After Another. That being said, at this early juncture, it’s very much still just a crapshoot.

The Academy is absolutely impossible to read a year out, anytime I do this, but even more so nowadays, especially as they seem both open minded to traditional fare, as well as quite ready to embrace titles that used to only dream of real contention. Just look at what I was predicting last year here. Several of my Best Picture picks actually made the cut in recent years, including the eventual winners, but there’s always plenty of swings and misses. Last year, five of the ten nominees in Picture, including One Battle After Another, were in my advance lineup. Sometimes, your assumptions about voters can even work against you. For example, two years I held back on going for Anora due to Sean Baker just not connecting with AMPAS. Oops. Last year, I wasn’t ready to debut with a Paul Thomas Anderson work in the top spot, when I obviously shouldn’t have had that concern. I once again fully expect to do badly this time around, but that’s just the nature of the beast. Mostly, this is something not to take too seriously. so, have fun with it!

Especially with nominations, voters are looking towards fare they never used to consider, even if some titles do feel on the traditional side. Winners still are seen as a step or two behind the times (though Anora and Everything Everywhere All At Once really pushed things forward in both cases, while One Battle After Another and Oppenheimer sort of have their feet in both worlds), but that could be changing. Plus, thinking about the winner in any given category right now is absurd and foolish. Nominees, on the other hand? No, still foolish, but I’m a fool. That being said, you can look at the recent tendencies of the Academy and know that their Oscar ballots are, at least in Phase One, more open minded than ever.

Below, you can see my advance Oscar predictions (they’ll be uploaded into the predictions section once I have the time, as it’s a labor intensive process, so apologies if they’re not up when you click, or if future uploads lag behind the articles a bit). We shall see what happens, but this list is sure to change once I give it an update, though you’ll see a second part to this next month, as I recently explained. Below is just Best Picture, with the rest of the big eight to come next time, so stay tuned there…

BEST PICTURE

1. Dune: Part Three
2. The Odyssey
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. Project Hail Mary
5. The Adventures of Cliff Booth
6. Digger
7. The Social Reckoning
8. Saturn Return
9. Tony
10. Disclosure Day

Next in Line: 11. I Play Rocky 12. Josephine 13. The Uprising 14. Being Heumann 15. Paper Tiger 16. Behemoth! 17. Jack of Spades 18. Clarissa 19. All of a Sudden 20. A Place in Hell 21. The Invite 22. Fjord 23. Artificial 24. Wuthering Heights 25. Narnia: The Magician’s Nephew

Stay tuned for Part Two of my year in advance Oscar predictions next month!