Year in Advance Oscar Predictions: Has the Cannes Film Festival Launched Some Potential Awards Contenders?

Last week, the 77th Cannes Film Festival came to a close. We have our newest slate of winners, led of course by Sean Baker‘s Anora (detailed here), and that always marks an interesting point in the year, at least for me. Prior to Cannes, it’s pretty silly to talk in anything more than purely hypotheticals about potential Academy Award nominees, even though I still obviously put up predictions. After the festival, it’s still pretty silly, but there begins to be the specter of what Oscar could wind up going for. So, today’s first real update to my initial year in advance predictions comes in the aftermath of the fest coming to an end. It’s not a huge update, but it’s something, at least…

As you’ll see below, there are new contenders out of Cannes, but the race has not exactly been upended. Mostly, what you’re going to notice is that Anora went from more of a fringe player, given how Baker’s movies tend to sniff around nominations but not land them, to a real deal. The Florida Project got a single nomination for Willem Dafoe in Best Supporting Actor, while Red Rocket came up just short. Could this be his time to shine now? There certainly seems to be an avenue for it.

One thing to remember is that this year might be a slow one, in terms of the season developing. The productions halted or delayed or even scrapped due to the strikes last year are going to have an effect on festival seasons, which in turn, effects the race. We’re still going to have quality nominees at the end of the day, I’m sure of that, but it may be longer on in the year before we have a clearer picture of what even will be potentially in the running. Just keep that in mind.

Historically, Cannes sometimes does birth an Oscar juggernaut into the world. No Country for Old Men springs to mind, for example. So does, as it turned out to a slightly lesser degree, the aforementioned Parasite. Just two years, the Best Picture nominees included movies from the fest like Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick, and Triangle of Sadness. This past year, we had Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, and The Zone of Interest getting nominated. However, it’s far from a sure thing. Usually it takes another festival or the precursors to really establish where we’re at, contender-wise. That’s just the name of the game.

This year, the big hit was, obviously, the Palme d’Or winner Anora, from Sean Baker. NEON now has their fifth Palme in a row, four of which were nominated for Best Picture, so we might be looking at Baker finally getting a wider acceptance from the Academy. Picture, Best Actress for Mikey Madison, and Baker in either Best Director or Best Original Screenplay seems to be on the table. Elsewhere, depending on how big the push can be, MUBI has a Demi Moore performance in The Substance that can potentially go places. Netflix is seemingly about to buy Emilia Pérez, so a campaign seems likely there across the board. There’s also Kinds of Kindness, which might be less of an across the board contender than the last two Yorgos Lanthimos films, but at the very least could have Jesse Plemons in play for Best Supporting Actor. Finally, I wouldn’t bank on The Apprentice or Megalopolis landing with Oscar, but stranger things have happened, and they’re bound to be among the most talked about titles this year. Buckle in there.

Remember, it’s still very early. My last predictions article (found here) may look similar to this new one, but that’s the nature of the beast right now. I’m remaining very conservative, though still trying to tell a story with my nominees. That certainly can change, in terms of being conservative, but it won’t be for a bit, since nothing concrete, Oscar-wise, usually happens in the summer.

As always, you can see my newest crack at advance Oscar predictions here at Awards Radar. We shall see, but this list is sure to change once again when I give it another update, likely in a month or so. Until then, the usual suspects from the initial ranking still loom fairly large, give or take the aforementioned Cannes contenders…

Stay tuned for an update to these Oscar predictions as the summer continues!