Who Should (Not Who Will) Win Academy Awards on Sunday?

Folks, the time draws near. On Sunday night, we’ll finally know who and what the Academy bestows Oscars upon. As we steamroll towards the weekend, I’m once again going to be teasing out my final predictions, which drop on Friday morning. As an appetizer of sorts, today I’m posting not my picks, but my preferences. Yes, instead of a Who Will Win/Who Should Win combo job, I’m splitting things up. Bright and early on Friday you’ll see my finalized predictions, but this morning, you’ll see my preferences. Some of these shouldn’t be surprising, considering the results (here, here, and here) of the Fourth Annual Awards Radar Awards. Still, this should be fun, or at least as fun as stalling a bit for time can be…

Below are my personal preferences, along with very short explanations for the major categories. Where do Oscar and I seem to agree? Where do we go in different directions? Friday is the big day for final predictions, so stay tuned. In the meantime, here goes nothing!

Best Picture

It should be no surprise that Barbie gets my vote here. After all, it’s my favorite film of 20203. That being said, for those wondering what my order of the nominees on a preferential ballot would be, this is how that would look:

1. Barbie

2. Oppenheimer

3. Poor Things

4. Killers of the Flower Moon

5. American Fiction

6. Anatomy of a Fall

7. The Holdovers

8. Maestro

9. Past Lives

10. The Zone of Interest

Best Director

This is going to be an obvious one for the Academy, but it’s also a very easy pick for yours truly as well. It’s Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer, plain and simple. He deserves it and he’s about to win it. I just happen to agree with the impending Oscar moment.

Best Actor

While I’d have given the award to Zac Efron for The Iron Claw if he were nominated, much like with Oscar, this comes down for me to Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers and Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer. Murphy probably is in the lead with voters, but for me? I give the slight edge to Giamatti on my own ballot.

Best Actress

Emma Stone gives my favorite performance by a female in 2023, so of course I’d vote for her here in Best Actress. What she does in Poor Things is nothing short of incredible. You’ll see tomorrow whether I have her or Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon winning with Oscar, but give me a ballot and Stone is my personal pick.

Best Supporting Actor

Robert Downey Jr. is about to win the Oscar for Oppenheimer, that much is clear. However, on my ballot, I’d go with my favorite male performance of last year in Ryan Gosling. He made Ken not just a part of Barbie, but arguably the best part. He’ll fall short this weekend, but he’d be my pick, if given the opportunity to vote.

Best Supporting Actress

Here is a spot where the Academy Awards and I completely align. This race has been Da’Vine Joy Randolph or bust for months now, rightly so, and in a few days she’ll justly have an Oscar for her performance in The Holdovers.

Best Original Screenplay

Almost all of my favorite scripts last year were either deemed Adapted or not nominated. That being said, while The Holdovers is very well written, it’s hard to argue with the Oscar frontrunner in Anatomy of a Fall. So, I won’t argue and I’ll check that box here.

Best Adapted Screenplay

American Fiction, Barbie, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things are all nearly equally deserving here. With Barbie being Adapted at the Oscars (I gave it my Original prize), that’s where my heart goes, so Noah Baumbach and Greta Gerwig would have their Academy Awards in my universe.

Best Animated Feature

For much of the year, I was on board with Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse. However, having finally seen Robot Dreams, my ballot would go against the grain and actually pick that moving little animated feature for the win.

The rest of the categories are presented without commentary…

Best Production Design – Poor Things

Best Cinematography – Oppenheimer

Best Costume Design – Barbie

Best Film Editing – Oppenheimer

Best Makeup and Hairstyling – Poor Things

Best Sound – Oppenheimer

Best Visual Effects – Godzilla Minus One

Best Original Score – Oppenheimer

Best Original Song – I’m Just Ken (from Barbie)

Best Documentary Feature – 20 Days in Mariupol

Best International Feature – Perfect Days

Sit tight for my final predictions on Friday morning!