Joey Magidson
What a difference a week makes. Last week, we were talking about how the Golden Globes were coming up, not to pay them too much mind, and to heed the upcoming guild announcements. Well, the Globes are in the rearview mirror, guilds are announcing, Critics Choice is on Sunday, and Oscar voting has officially begun, as of yesterday. Today brings the Producers Guild nominees, hot on the heels of the Directors Guild and Screen Actors Guild, so what a time for the Academy to be filling in their ballots. A perfect time to update my predictions, right? Right.
The guilds always have sway with the Academy, more so than anything critics or just amorphous voting groups do, so heed their clues. The Globes didn’t hurt the chances of any of their winners, but they didn’t really do much to harm the losers, either. So, it’s somewhat of a wash. Now, the guilds are a whole other ball of wax. Remember that there’s rarely a one to one with Oscar, but there is crossover with the voters, so the breadcrumbs are there.
DGA confirmed that four of our likely Best Director nominees are Greta Gerwig, Yorgos Lanthimos, Christopher Nolan, and Martin Scorsese. The fifth slot is up for grabs, and while Alexander Payne was the DGA nominee, plenty of other contenders still loom for that spot, especially if we could have a Lone Director situation again this year. Plus, the Oscar voters do tend to like an international nominee these days, so keep that in mind.
SAG had a lot to pour over. You can hear my full category by category thoughts here on the latest podcast episode, but these categories don’t usually translate five for five. If anything, maybe one will, and who knows, maybe it’s that tight Best Actor race? You’ll see my picks shortly, so that could tell you where I stand…
As you’re reading this, PGA may well have already announced today. Depending on which films are snubbed or not, we could be looking at easily eight or nine of the ten cited titles becoming Best Picture nominees. The movies will tell the story, we just have to pay attention. Sit tight there, as I’ll update my predictions once they actually do announce.
My prior prediction piece (found right here) is still available for your perusal, and can see some more of the changes I’ve been making along the way if you click around. They’re going to be updated more frequently now, since it really is the season. So, if you don’t like what you see, just wait a week and check back. You may be surprised!
Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at advance Oscar predictions, as well as my initial DGA and SAG predictions right here at Awards Radar. The changes are coming, and will continue to come, more and more, as the precursors continue on. Don’t read too much into the Globe results, but those guilds definitely mean something, with more to come. So, sit tight…
Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions very soon!
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