Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: Final Picks as It All Comes Down to This for The Academy

It all comes down to this. On Sunday evening, the Academy Awards will be held. Literally a year’s worth of hypotheticals, pondering, and questions will result in our newest crop of Oscar winners. Almost exactly a year after it releases in theaters, Everything Everywhere All At Once is poised to do very well. Best Picture appears in its grasp. What else can it win? Well, you’ll be able to find out my picks today!

For my final predictions, I’m doing something a little bit different. Since there are enough categories where things feel very up in the air, I wanted to provide a sentence or two on where I stand. Some of that was addressed earlier this week on the newest Awards Radar Podcast episode here, but this is where you’re likely looking, so I made sure to provide.

Below, you can see a bit of my thought process, as well as what I would be voting for. As always, you can see my Oscar predictions right here if you just want to get right to it. Otherwise, read on for the good stuff. Here goes nothing, starting with the Short categories, sans commentary. Here we go…

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Best Animated Short – The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

Best Documentary Short – Stranger at the Gate

Best Live-Action Short – An Irish Goodbye

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Best Visual Effects

We can start with the easiest category of the night. Avatar: The Way of Water has had this statue engraved more or less since it began shooting. You can mark this one down, not just in ink, but in blood. Moving on (no shade to the win, either, there’s just bigger fish to fry).

Will Win – Avatar: The Way of Water

Could Win – N/A

Should Win – Avatar: The Way of Water

Should Have Been Nominated – Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness

Best Original Score

One of our many close calls on the night, it comes down to whether Justin Hurwitz is going to hold on for Babylon or if Volker Bertelmann will come on at the end to win for All Quiet on the Western Front. I’m inclined to stick with Hurwitz, but there’s a real chance that Bertelmann and his film peaked at just the right time. Hell, it’s not out of the question for John Williams to upset for The Fabelmans. Watch this category for a sign of how well All Quiet on the Western Front is doing.

Will Win – Babylon

Could Win – All Quiet on the Western Front

Should Win – Babylon

Should Have Been Nominated – Women Talking

Best Original Song

This category has tightened a lot, it seems. Early on, it appeared like Black Panther: Wakanda Forever‘s Lift Me Up and Top Gun: Maverick‘s Hold My Hand were in a fight to the end. Then, Naatu Naatu from RRR caught on, picking up some wins in the process. I haven’t heard or seen anything to suggest it’s lost any momentum, but with more nominated competition, it’s going to be a very close call.

Will Win – RRR

Could Win – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever or Top Gun: Maverick

Should Win – Top Gun: Maverick

Should Have Been Nominated – A Man Called Otto

Best Sound

Believe it or not, in the finalizing of my predictions and the writing of this piece, no category has had me going back and forth more than this one. Initially, Top Gun: Maverick looked like an easy pick. Then, one could have looked at the Elvis momentum and thought there was a fight there. Now, with how well All Quiet on the Western Front has done, there’s pretty close to three horses. the combined Sound categroy is sttill new, but assuming a preferenc efor war related fare still holds, it’s All Quiet on the Western Front or Top Gun: Maverick. I’d switched to the former after months of having the latter winning, but here at the eleventh hour, I’ve swapped once again. Top Gun: Maverick doesn’t go home empty-handed.

Will Win – Top Gun: Maverick

Could Win – All Quiet on the Western Front

Should Win – Top Gun: Maverick

Should Have Been Nominated – Nope

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

It’s Elvis or The Whale, as we’ve long thought. Does the Academy go for the flashier bit of work? Or, do they go for the film they’re more fond of? Deferring to the movie they’re more into means Elvis wins, while honoring the makeup they most noticed adds up to The Whale. I’ve flip-flopped this one a few times, but as I prevent myself from making further changes, the extra love for the flick makes the difference. Of note…if I had sat longer on this one, I may have made the change back, so make of that what you will.

Will Win – Elvis

Could Win – The Whale

Should Win – The Whale

Should Have Been Nominated – X

Best Film Editing

When in doubt, most editing usually is how you find the ultimate editing winner, alongside the frontrunner in Best Picture. Most years, that would be Top Gun: Maverick, most editing-wise. However, this year, not only is Everything Everywhere All At Once the likely Picture winner, it has as much editing as any contender. It all adds up to a likely win here for it.

Will Win – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Could Win – Top Gun: Maverick

Should Win – Top Gun: Maverick

Should Have Been Nominated – The Batman

Best Costume Design

It’s Ruth E. Carter and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever up against Catherine Martin and Elvis. Carter did win for Black Panther last time, while Martin is an oft-honored winner. Another close category that could make or break your Oscar pool, I think this is another place where we see juust how well Elvis is doiing on the night.

Will Win – Elvis

Could Win – Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Should Win – Babylon

Should Have Been Nominated – The Fabelmans

Best Cinematography

What a wild evolution for this race. With a few of the presumed frontrunners not even nominated, Best Cinematography seemed as open-ended as any category after the nominations were announced. Now, it comes down to if Mandy Walker makes history with Elvis as the first female cinematographer to win, or if James Friend takes it for All Quiet on the Western Front, I think with a bit more time to push the history of it all, Walker and Elvis would have won, but today, I think Friend and All Quiet on the Western Front pulls it out.

Will Win – All Quiet on the Western Front

Could Win – Elvis

Should Win – Empire of Light

Should Have Been Nominated – Top Gun: Maverick

Best Production Design

This category truly feels impossible to confidently predict. What I keep coming back to is if you love Babylon, you love the sets. That passion could give it a win, even without a Best Picture nomination, over Elvis or another nominee like All Quiet on the Western Front. If Babylon wins, it’ll be the first of its kind since The Great Gatsby, so keep that in mind, too.

Will Win – Babylon

Could Win – Elvis

Should Win – Babylon

Should Have Been Nominated – The Batman

Best International Feature

x

Will Win – All Quiet on the Western Front

Could Win – N/A

Should Win – All Quiet on the Western Front

Should Have Been Nominated – RRR

Best Animated Feature

The other absolute slam dunk of the night is here. Best Animated Feature is going to Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio. You can take it to the bank. Nothing else is even in spitting distance of this one, so it’s a surefire victory for Guillermo del Toro.

Will Win – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Could Win – N/A

Should Win – Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Should Have Been Nominated – Apollo 10 ½: A Space Age Childhood

Best Documentary Feature

Nothing would surprise me here, but momentum has steadily been building for Navalny. Both All the Beauty and the Bloodshed as well as Fire of Love can make compelling cases, so neither would be a shock. That being said, it does feel like Navalny is what’s going to be honored on Sunday evening, albeit in a close call.

Will Win – Navalny

Could Win – All the Beauty and the Bloodshed or Fire of Love

Should Win – Fire of Love

Should Have Been Nominated – Sr.

Best Original Screenplay

Watch out for Martin McDonagh and The Banshees of Inisherin here, especially if somehow during the show Everything Everywhere All At Once is showing any signs of weakness. Still, this always felt like the most likely place for The Daniels (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert) to be honored, so at the bare minimum, this should be their category.

Will Win – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Could Win – The Banshees of Inisherin

Should Win – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Should Have Been Nominated – Babylon

Best Adapted Screenplay

Another tight race. Much of the season was spent assuming that Sarah Polley was almost defaulting into a win here for Women Talking. In a way, that might of done her a disservice, as the strong work could wrongly have been seen as taking advantage of a weak category. So, that has opened up a lane for All Quiet on the Western Front. The two never got to go head to head, so it’s really just a hunch here. Polley and Women Talking could easily still take it, but I’m playing said hunch that All Quiet on the Western Front takes it at the last moment, based partly on it being something the Academy has embraced more, nomination-wise. It’s close to a coin-flip, however!

Will Win – All Quiet on the Western Front

Could Win – Women Talking

Should Win – Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery

Should Have Been Nominated – She Said and The Whale

Best Supporting Actor

The only sewn up acting race of the night is here. Aside from that one BAFTA hiccup that gave us our presumed second place finisher in Barry Keoghan, this is going to Ke Huy Quan from Everything Everywhere All At Once. Keoghan’s work in The Banshees of Inisherin is no slouch, but Quan has been the frontrunner all season and will take the Oscar this weekend.

Will Win – Ke Huy Quan

Could Win – Barry Keoghan

Should Win – Ke Huy Quan

Should Have Been Nominated – Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)

Best Supporting Actress

A legitimate three-way race in Best Supporting Actress is a rare beast. As such, anything could happen. I can see almost equal cases for Angela Bassett, Kerry Condon, or Jamie Lee Curtis. At the same time, I think Bassett’s turn in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever may be the least likely of the three to win, having won only with Critics Choice and Golden Globe, which don’t have Academy crossover. Condon could come up the middle and The Banshees of Inisherin from being shut out. However, I do think that Curtis is going to be rewarded for how much of a champion she was for her film throughout the season. No result would surprise me, but at the end of the day, I narrowly see Curtis being another feather in the cap of Everywhere All At Once on Sunday.

Will Win – Jamie Lee Curtis

Could Win – Angela Bassett or Kerry Condon

Should Win – Hong Chau

Should Have Been Nominated – Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery)

Best Actor

Austin Butler vs Brendan Fraser is one of the big main events we’re all waiting to see on Oscar night. If we’re assuming that Colin Farrell is a distant third for The Banshees of Inisherin, then it’s just how you value certain wins. Elvis‘ Butler has Golden Globe, which doesn’t say much, but BAFTA, which does. The Whale‘s Fraser has Critics Choice to counter the Globes, but more importantly, he has SAG. Fraser could be in a good spot because of his win being most recent, but Butler is playing a real person, and a musician, to boot, which is Oscar catnip. Throw in Butler being in the film that the Academy clearly likes better, as well as is more traditionally up their alley, and it might be just enough to give him the win. Don’t count out Fraser though, as this is a real nail-biter!

Will Win – Austin Butler

Could Win – Brendan Fraser

Should Win – Brendan Fraser

Should Have Been Nominated – Adam Sandler (Hustle)

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett vs Michelle Yeoh is the other big main event matchup we’re eager to see finally play out on Oscar night. All season, it has seemed like the lead that Blanchett built was destined to dwindle once the tail end of the race reared its head. The question was just if it would be enough for Yeoh to overtake her. Once again, it’s a BAFTA vs SAG battle. The TÁR star could certainly win her third Oscar. however, i do think momentum will fuel the Everything Everywhere All At Once star to victory.

Will Win – Michelle Yeoh

Could Win – Cate Blanchett

Should Win – Michelle Yeoh

Should Have Been Nominated – Zoe Kazan (She Said)

Best Director

The last few years, Best Director has been fairly easy to figure out. We’ve also seen the academy move towards splitting up the Director and Picture winners. Well, this one is also easy, but they’re not likely to split this time around. Look for Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert to win for Everything Everywhere All At Once. There’s the tiniest chance that Steven Spielberg gets honored for The Fabelmans, but the smart money is on The Daniels here.

Will Win – Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert

Could Win – Steven Spielberg

Should Win – Steven Spielberg

Should Have Been Nominated – Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)

Best Picture

Everything has led to this. The other presumed main contenders like The Banshees of Inisherin and The Fabelmans never made a dent in the Best Picture race, win terms of actually winning the Oscar. Top Gun: Maverick looms as a spoiler and potential populist surprise, but it does seem pretty cut and dried. It’s going to go to Everything Everywhere All At Once. Now, if there’s an upset, maybe it winds up being All Quiet on the Western Front? There’s certainly momentum, but I just don’t see it. Almost exactly 365 days after it began its theatrical run, Everything Everywhere All At Once will conclude its journey by taking home the Academy Award for Best Picture.

Will Win – Everything Everywhere All At Once

Could Win – All Quiet on the Western Front

Should Win – The Fabelmans

Should Have Been Nominated – The Whale

Stay tuned to see who and what Oscar rewards on Sunday night!