What Does Math Have to Say About the Impending Oscar Nominations?

I came across this article yesterday while scrolling the internet for distractions from…you know, and I had to share. After all, I’ve not only long said that there’s a degree of science (or math) to predicting the Oscar nominations, but I also find analytics fascinating in sports. So I have a healthy respect and even admiration for math/statistics when it comes to predicting outcomes. With the Academy about to announce on Tuesday, I wanted to point out one way that some are going with their predictions.

As you’ll see, someone like Ben Zauzmer uses math. Who is he? Well, not only is he a longtime predictor of the Oscars using a mathematical model, he’s also a baseball analyst, doing the same in sports. In fact, he’s current an Assistant General Manager for the New York Mets, which many of you know is my favorite team. So, he’s not only been able to use this to oftentimes do quite well with the Academy Awards, he’s currently using it to help my squad win a World Series in the near future.

In this article at The Hollywood Reporter, you can read his explanations and see how he predicts Tuesday’s nominations to go down. It’s a really interesting piece, and I’ve including a few of the charts below, but it’s well worth checking out. Compare and contrast it with my predictions here if you want. Once the nominees are known, we’ll see how both of us did.

It’s important to note that you have to take into account how much to weigh certain precursors. For example, you may see Adam Sandler low on his chart, but his one real citation has been from the Screen Actors Guild, which is a bigger boost than a notice from the Critics Choice Association or the Golden Globes.

Personally, I give math its due, but I also pay attention to what I’m hearing from voters, as well as the other trends in the air at the time. That’s how you see an Andrea Riseborough in Best Actress potentially crashing the party. Statistics can tell you plenty of the story, but there’s an emotional quotient that can’t be calculated.

All in all, this is great information to have, but just Zauzmer freely admits, upsets to statistical frontrunners do happen. So, consider the info, use it as much or as little as you want, but don’t look at it as the gospel. It’s just a tool. Same as in baseball, it tends to work similarly with the Oscar nominations, as well as the Academy Awards, ultimately.

Stay tuned to see how the Oscar nominations turn out on Tuesday morning!

Source: THR