Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: Nominations Are Just Days Away…Time for Final Predictions!

First of all, a quick thank you to those of you who reached out in the aftermath of my mother’s passing earlier this week. I really do appreciate it. As you read this, I’ll likely be at her funeral, and it’s going to be really tough, but it means a lot that so many people care. This was a good distraction the night before, just like the podcast was previously. So, just know that I’m touched, even as I’m heartbroken. Now, as promised, my final Oscar predictions article for Phase One of the awards season…

Tuesday morning, all questions will be answered. On Tuesday, the Academy Award nominations will be announced. All of the various predictions shared by pundits, including myself, will be reduced to the actual nominees. Surprises and snubs will undoubtedly come fast and furious, especially considering the somewhat unusual nature of this season. So much is still up in the air, it will, without question, make for a fun set of nominees, as well as Phase Two on the whole. So, join me for a look at a few categories.

Best Picture is, when it comes to an ultimate winner, probably between The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, and The Fabelmans, with Top Gun: Maverick waiting in the wings as a potential preferential ballot spoiler. There’s still many a precursor that will tell us where things stand between them, but not only are they locked for nominations, they have their sights set on the big prize in March.

I feel confidently about eight films cracking the lineup. Joining The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans, and Top Gun: Maverick are almost certainly All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, and TÁR. So, what about the final two? I’ve landed on Triangle of Sadness and The Whale, but don’t count out Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery in the slightest, while Women Talking and even RRR are lurking as surprises, to one degree or another.

The acting fields are a study in contrasts. Take the way Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor look. Actor is a tight three way race between Austin Butler, Colin Farrell, and Brendan Fraser, with Bill Nighy a fairly safe fourth. That leaves the last slot to be taken by either Tom Cruise, Tom Hanks, Paul Mescal, or Adam Sandler, barring a shocking surprise. There’s suspense at the top and bottom. With Supporting Actor, it’s a runaway for Ke Huy Quan, with the other contenders very much a glut of various contenders from The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, and more.

Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress seem to really depend on what you’re doing with Michelle Williams. At the eleventh hour, her campaign in Actress for The Fabelmans has given way to plenty of predictions that she’ll actually wind up in Supporting Actress. I’ve resisted this for a while, but in the end, I actually did something a bit silly and have her predicted in both places. I know I’ll be wrong somewhere, but I don’t see her being snubbed. If she winds up Supporting, that almost certainly helps Ana de Armas lock in, while someone like Olivia Colman or Viola Davis could cash in, though watch out for the last minute push for Andrea Riseborough. Supporting does seem to be a complete wild card, too, aside from Angela Bassett being the frontrunner and two spots seeming to belong to Kerry Condon and Jamie Lee Curtis.

Best Director and the Screenplay categories are going to be almost a grab bag, while below the line, it’s hard to fully figure it out without knowing which films are leading the way. Depending on the movies up top, the technical categories could look very different. We know some of the likely names in Director, as well as both Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Original Screenplay, but this is where you should look for some potential surprises…

What we fully know, without question, is that it’s impossible to get all of your predictions right, so if you’re predicting, just take it all in stride. I certainly like to be right, but I’ve come to no longer beat myself of over them. Whatever will be will be, so stay tuned, strap in, and enjoy this exciting part of the ride!

Prior predictions pieces for the Academy Awards can be found right here, showcasing my thought process throughout the season. As a reminder, fresh predictions for DGA, PGA, and SAG are here, here, and here. Give those a look, for sure. Without question, the Oscars will be influenced by those Guilds, so ignore them at your own peril, not that you would. We’ll just know in a few days how much or how little.

Folks, as always you can see my latest crack at Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar. As mentioned, I may tinker again at the last minute before Tuesday, but for the most part, I’ve settled on how I think the Academy will sort out their picks. Now, we wait…

Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions after the Academy Award nominations on Tuesday morning!