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Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: Screeners Are Out, ‘Babylon’ Has Proven Divisive, and Only James Cameron Looms

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First of all, I hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving. Fingers crossed you had a happy, healthy, and safe day yesterday. Now, on to today’s article. Black Friday, as today is known, is a major shopping holiday. That goes for the awards season, too. While folks are hunting for sales, Oscar voters are shopping for nominees, likely having watched some of their screeners yesterday with family/friends (something critics/pundits share with voters). Alongside the debut last week of one major potential awards contender, we’re in the thick of the season now, folks. So, it’s high time for updated Academy Award predictions, which you’ll see below. I’ve also debuted my Golden Globe predictions, so it’s not just the Oscars today!

The big story last week was that Damien Chazelle‘s Babylon finally revealed itself. Now, the big Hollywood epic, which stars Diego Calva, Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, Jean Smart, and more, had long been seen as a potential Oscar game changer, for many obvious factors. However, the initial reactions to the film have been wildly divisive. Some love the movie, calling it Chazelle’s best and a wild experience. Others, well, they’ve called it a misfire. You rarely get such a range of reactions when a big awards flick debuts like this. So, what to think?

Babylon seems poised still to be a major below the line contender. It just remains to be seen if the above the line love will happen. Robbie in Best Actress and Best Picture itself seem like the categories that have the best chances, given the nature of those categories. Next would be Chazelle in Best Director, followed by Calva in Best Actor, Pitt in Best Supporting Actor, Smart in Best Supporting Actress, and Chazelle again in Best Original Screenplay. Most of them were very much on the table prior to the big reveal, so while some seems like longer shots, there’s still very much a world where Babylon gets doubt digit nominations.

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The season could go any number of ways still, but at the moment, The Fabelmans still appears to be in an excellent position. The beginnings of the precursors, which mainly consist of nominations for the Gothams and Indie Spirit Awards, have favorite Everything Everywhere All At Once, Tár, and Women Talking. However, that’s to be expected. Once more groups begin to chime in, we’ll have a better sense of who and what has the actual momentum.

Now, we just wait on the imminent arrivals of Avatar: The Way of WaterEmancipation (which has screened under embargo), and I Wanna Dance With Somebody. Truly, they will be the final reveals before we take on the contenders a whole. We’re very close to that time, too, I’ll be seeing one in a few days, before another one in a week. Sit tight for more there, but the puzzle is rapidly being filled in, as I said a few weeks ago with Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, as well as She Said prior to that. Babylon is now just the latest piece to come out of the box.

My prior early prediction articles (found herehereherehereherehereherehereherehere, and here) are available for your perusal, and can see some more of the changes I’ve been making. Like I’ve been saying since early on in the month of September, we’re now in it, friends. Hell, it’s now the end of November!

Additionally, and as mentioned above, initial Golden Globe predictions are now live. So, if you’re curious who and what the Hollywood Foreign Press Association might be nominated, my picks are here. Give those a look, but obviously take them with a big ole grain of salt.

Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at advance Oscar predictions (which officially now will just be considered regular old new predictions, as opposed to year in advance) right here at Awards Radar. The changes are coming, and will continue to come, more and more, now that the fall festivals have basically wrapped up. So, sit tight for more…

Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions as the awards season continues!


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Written by Joey Magidson

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