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Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Final Phase One Update: Voting Closes and All That’s Left to Do is Wait

It’s all done except for the crying. Now, the question is, will the tears on Monday morning be ones of disappointment or joy? The answer is, likely both. Yes, with the Academy Award nominations now only days away, there’s nothing left to do but wait. Voters have finished casting their ballots, the nominees are prepared, and the countdown is on. I finalized my Oscar predictions yesterday, so barring a last minute change of heart, what you’ll see below is how I think the Academy Awards will turn out, nomination-wise. Of course, with how unique this season has been, expect surprises and upsets.

Phase One comes to a close on Monday. So, what do I think will happen? You’ll be able to see more below, but in short…I have no clue. I do think we might be in the middle of surges for Minari and Promising Young Woman, which benefits those films greatly. At the same time, it’s impossible to tell if Mank will under-perform or not. I do think it’s a three horse race for Best Picture, with Nomadland and The Trial of the Chicago 7 sandwiching Promising Young Woman. Emerald Fennell‘s movie looms as the potential dark horse and upset, but that remains to be seen.

So, here we are. I fully expect to do worse with my predictions than ever before. Now, that’s not exactly the way to christen a (still new) website, but such is the unique nature of this season. However, it’s looking like an exciting race to the finish, and that’s an Oscar delight. So, bring it on, Academy!

Nomadland (2020) Cinematography by Joshua James Richards

As a reminder, predictions have also been updated elsewhere, not just for the Oscars. Yes, in addition to the Academy Awards, we still have Film Independent Spirit Award winner predictions, with the same going for SAG, along with updated picks for the Directors Guild and Producers Guild awards, now that they’ve announced their nominations. So, definitely look at those DGA and PGA predictions, plus my Writers Guild winner predictions are up as well! Have at it, folks, and as always, we’re not far out from another update, after the Oscar nominations…

Carey Mulligan (left) stars as “Cassandra” and Christopher Mintz-Plasse (right) stars as “Neil“ in director Emerald Fennell’s PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN, a Focus Features release. Credit: Courtesy of Focus Features

Here you go, my final predictions for the Academy Awards, pre-nominations. Behold:

Best Picture

1. Nomadland

2. Promising Young Woman

3. The Trial of the Chicago 7

4. Mank

5. Minari

6. One Night in Miami…

7. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

8. Judas and the Black Messiah

9. Sound of Metal

(Watch out for: The Father, News of the World, Da 5 Bloods)

Best Director 

1. Chloé Zhao – Nomadland

2. David Fincher – Mank

3. Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman

4. Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Regina King – One Night in Miami…

(Watch out for: Lee Isaac Chung – Minari)

Best Actor 

1 Chadwick Boseman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Anthony Hopkins – The Father

3. Riz Ahmed – Sound of Metal

4. Gary Oldman – Mank

5. Steven Yeun – Minari

(Watch out for: Delroy Lindo – Da 5 Bloods, Tahar Rahim – The Mauritanian)

Best Actress 

1. Carey Mulligan – Promising Young Woman

2. Frances McDormand – Nomadland

3. Andra Day – The United States vs Billie Holiday

4. Vanessa Kirby – Pieces of a Woman

5. Viola Davis – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

(Watch out for: Amy Adams – Hillbilly Elegy, Sophia Loren – The Life Ahead)

Best Supporting Actor 

1. Daniel Kaluuya – Judas and the Black Messiah

2. Sacha Baron Cohen – The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Leslie Odom Jr. – One Night in Miami…

4. Chadwick Boseman – Da 5 Bloods

5. Paul Raci – Sound of Metal

(Watch out for: Jared Leto – The Little Things, David Strathairn – Nomadland, Glynn Turman – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)

Best Supporting Actress 

1. Glenn Close – Hillbilly Elegy

2. Youn Yuh-jung – Minari

3. Olivia Colman – The Father

4. Maria Bakalova – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm

5. Amanda Seyfried – Mank

(Watch out for: Helena Zengel – News of the World, Jodie Foster – The Mauritanian)

Best Original Screenplay 

1. Emerald Fennell – Promising Young Woman

2. Aaron Sorkin – The Trial of the Chicago 7

3. Lee Isaac Chung – Minari

4. Will Berson and Shaka King, Keith Lucas, Kenny Lucas – Judas and the Black Messiah

5. Darius Marder, Abraham Marder, Derek Cianfrance – Sound of Metal

(Watch out for: Jack Fincher – Mank)

Best Adapted Screenplay 

1. Chloé Zhao – Nomadland

2. Kemp Powers – One Night in Miami…

3. Kelly Reichardt, Jonathan Raymond – First Cow

4. Christopher Hampton, Florian Zeller – The Father

5. Ruben Santiago-Hudson – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

(Watch out for: Sacha Baron Cohen, Anthony Hines, Dan Swimer, Nina Pedrad, Peter Baynham, Erica Rivinoja, Dan Mazer, Jen Friedman, Lee Kern – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, Luke Davies, Paul Greengrass – News of the World, Ramin Bahrani – The White Tiger, Charlie Kaufman – i’m thinking of ending things)

Best Animated Feature 

1. Soul

2. Wolfwalkers

3. Onward

4. The Croods: A New Age

5. Over the Moon

(Watch out for: The Willoughbys, A Shaun The Sheep Movie: Farmageddon, Earwig and the Witch)

Best Production Design 

1. Mank

2. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

3. Tenet

4. News of the World

5. The Trial of the Chicago 7

(Watch out for: The Midnight Sky, The Father, Mulan, Birds of Prey)

Best Cinematography 

1. Nomadland

2. Mank

3. News of the World

4. The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Cherry

(Watch out for: Da 5 Bloods, Tenet, i’m thinking of ending things)

Best Costume Design 

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Emma.

3. Mank

4. Jingle Jangle: A Christmas Journey

5. Birds of Prey

(Watch out for: The Prom, Promising Young Woman)

Best Film Editing 

1. The Trial of the Chicago 7

2. Mank

3. Sound of Metal

4. Nomadland

5. Promising Young Woman

(Watch out for: Minari)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling 

1. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

2. Mank

3. Hillbilly Elegy

4. Pinocchio

5. Birds of Prey

(Watch out for: Emma.)

Best Sound 

1. Sound of Metal

2. News of the World

3. Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom

4. The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Soul

(Watch out for: Tenet, The Midnight Sky, Mank)

Best Visual Effects 

1. Tenet

2. The Midnight Sky

3. Welcome to Chechnya

4. Mank

5. The One and Only Ivan

(Watch out for: Mulan, Soul, Birds of Prey)

Best Original Score 

1. Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross, Jon Batiste – Soul

2. James Newton Howard – News of the World

3. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross – Mank

4. Emile Mosseri – Minari

5. Ludwig Göransson – Tenet

(Watch out for: Alexandre Desplat – The Midnight Sky, Daniel Pemberton – The Trial of the Chicago 7, Thomas Newman – The Little Things)

Best Original Song 

1. Diane Warren – lo Si (Seen) – The Life Ahead

2. Leslie Odom Jr., Sam Ashworth – Speak Now – One Night in Miami…

3. Written by H.E.R., Dernst Emile II, Tiara Thomas – Fight for You – Judas and the Black Messiah

4. Celeste & Daniel Pemberton – Hear My Voice – The Trial of the Chicago 7

5. Janelle Monáe, Nathaniel Irvin III, George “George 2.0.” A. Peters II – Turntables – All In: The Fight for Democracy

(Watch out for: Sacha Baron Cohen, Erran Baron Cohen, & Anthony Hines – Wuhan Flu Song – Borat Subsequent Moviefilm)

Best Documentary Feature 

1. Dick Johnson is Dead

2. Crip Camp

3. Time

4. All In: The Fight for Democracy

5. Boys State

(Watch out for: Welcome to Chechnya, Collective)

Best International Feature 

1. Another Round

2. I’m No Longer Here

3. Collective

4. La Llorana

5. Night of the Kings

(Watch out for: Quo Vadis, Aida?, Two of Us)

Best Animated Short Film 

1. If Anything Happens I Love You

2. Out

3. Burrow

4. To Gerard

5. Yes-People

Best Live Action Short Film 

1. The Human Voice

2. Two Distant Strangers

3. The Present

4. Feeling Through

5. Da Yie

Best Documentary Short Subject 

1. A Love Song for Latasha

2. Abortion Helpline, This is Lisa

3. What Would Sophia Loren Do?

4. Hysterical Girl

5. Do Not Split

Courtesy of A24 Films

Look for an update after Monday’s big announcement!

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  1. My final picks, so when I get 100% correct nobody has to question the validity:

    OSCAR PREDICTIONS
    

Best Picture

    Nomadland
    Promising Young Woman
    
Trial of Chicago
    
Judas and the Black Messiah
    Sound of Metal

    Minari

    Mank
    One Night In Miami
    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    (sleepers The Father, Another Round)

    
DIRECTOR

    Zhoa
    Fincher

    Fennell
    Sorkin

    Chung
    (alternate: Regina King
)

    
ACTRESS
    Mulligan
    
McDormand

    Day

    Davis
    Kirby

    (sleeper: Pike)

    
ACTOR

    Boseman

    Hopkins

    Ahmed

    Rahim

    Yeun

    (sleeper: Mikkelsen

)

    

SUP. ACTRESS
    
Yuh Jung-Youn
    Seyfried
    Coleman

    Foster
    Bakalova

    SUP. ACTOR

    Kaluuya
    Baron Cohen
    Raci

    Odom Jr. 

    Murray


    ORIGINAL SCREEN
PLAY
    Promising Young Woman
    Trial of the Chicago
    
Mank
    Judas and the Black
    Minari

    (sleepers: 40 Year old version, Palm Springs,
    
Da 5 Bloods)

    ADAPTED SCREEN

    Nomadland

    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
    
The Father
    One Night in Miami

    I’m Thinking of Ending Things 



    (sleepers: White Tiger)

    
ANIMATED FEATURE
    
Wolfwalkers
    
Soul
    Over the Moon
    
Onward


    
INTERNATIONAL
    
Another Round
    Two of Us

    Night of Kings

    Quo Vadis, Aida?
    
La Llorona
    (sleepers: Collective,
The Mole Agent, I’m No Longer Here

)

    PRODUCTION DESIGN
    Mank

    Emma
    
Tenet
    
News of the World

    Ma Rainey
    

(sleepers: Copperfield
, Mulan

    COSTUME DESIGN
    
Ma Rainey
    Mank
    
Emma

    News of the World
    Copperfield



    (sleeper: Jingle Jangle)

    
FILM EDITING:
    Trial of the 7
    
Nomadland
    
Mank

    Sound of Metal

    The Father
    (sleepers: 

Judas, PYW, 
Da 5 Bloods)


    
CINEMATOGRAPHY
    Joshua James Richards – Nomadland

    Erik Messerschmidt – Mank

    Phedon Papamichael – The Trial of the Chicago 7

    Tobias A. Schliessler
    Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
 – Sean Bobbitt

    (sleepers: Judas and the Black Messiah, 

New of World
)

    
MAKEUP & HAIR
    
Ma Rainey

    Pinocchio

    Hillbilly Elegy
    
Mank

    Emma




    SOUND

    Sound of Metal

    Mank

    Soul
    News of the World
    Ma Rainey


    (sleeper: 

Greyhound, Tenet)

    VISUAL EFFECTS
    
Tenet

    Midnight Sky
    
Mank

    Welcome to Chechnya

    One and Only Ivan

    (sleeper: Mulan
)


    SCORE

    Soul

    Minari
    Mank

    News of the World

    Tenet



    
SONG

    lo Si (Seen): The Life Ahead – Diane Warren
    
Speak Now: ONIM – Leslie Odom Jr

    Eurovision: Husavik
    Judas and the Black Messiah: Fight for you – H.E.R.
    Trail of Chicago 7: Hear My Voice – Celeste





    DOC
    
Dick Johnson is Dead

    Crip Camp

    Time

    Welcome to Chechnya
    The Trufflehunters

    (Collective, 
The Mole Agent
, The Painter and the Thief


)

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