Joey Magidson
*Editor’s Note: As is always the case here, Robert did an excellent job with these predictions, which I’m sure will be more accurate than my own, even if I have nailed the Palme d’Or at least once. His picks are below, with a very thorough write-up, followed by my quick, comment-free ones, for comparison. It’s great to have him back teaming up with me on this, after not being able to last year*
Hey now! It’s nice to be back doing one of these. I was abroad and missed out on publishing inaccurate predictions that likely would have compared unfavorably to Joey’s last year, but this time, I’m able to put my ear to the ground once more and try to get a sense of what Park Chan-wook’s jury sees as the best of the festival. Based on reactions from the festivalgoers, the history of the individual awards, and my own “gut feelings,” here are what I think stand the best chances of winning the Main Competition awards this Saturday:
Prix du scenario: The Birthday Party — Laurent Mauvignier and Léa Mysius
I’ll start with my riskiest prediction, since I actually have no idea how this movie, the last on the screening schedule before the jury deliberates, has been received. It could be the most hated movie at the festival (though it seems like it’ll be tough to beat Asghar Farhadi’s latest on that front), it could rocket to being the frontrunner for the Palme. I have no way to know for sure. So why am I predicting this to win the screenplay award? Well, for one, there’s usually at least one late competitor at Cannes that ends up winning one of these awards – Parasite, in fact, was one of the last films to screen when it premiered at the festival and it walked away with the Palme. Léa Mysius is also no stranger to positive attention at Cannes; her directorial debut won the SACD Award when it screened for Critics’ Week, and she’s collaborated on screenplays with French luminaries like Jacques Audiard, Claire Denis, Céline Sciamma, and Arnaud Desplechin. Combine that with this movie being an adaptation of an acclaimed novel, barring some unexpected faceplant when it actually screens, I think we’re looking at a serious contender for the Best Screenplay award.
Prix de la mise en scène: Hope — Na Hong-jin
Hope is an unusual competitor. It’s in no way the “type of movie” that normally even gets submitted to the Main Competition, let alone accepted – an epic-length alien invasion (kaiju?) thriller that has been getting positive reviews more for its ambition and audacity of its action scenes than any thematic depth or emotional power. But I feel like the ambition will go a long way with a jury that could find something so capital-B Big and loud and sprawling and relentless a refreshing break from the muted character dramas and auteurist experiments that dominate these international film festivals, and recognize it with the Best Director prize. While I think some prognosticators are making dubious assertions that a Korean jury president will of course advocate for a Korean film to win the Palme (there have only been two nationality alignments between the jury president and the Palme awardee over the last twenty years), doesn’t the teaser trailer for Hope “feel like” it could have been made by Park? If he wanted to do his own take on The Host, wouldn’t you imagine it coming off similarly to this? Certainly, there’s something to the assumption that a movie that matches the sensibilities of the jury president has an edge, right?
Prix d’interprétation masculine: Rami Malek — The Man I Love
I will almost certainly be accused of bias when we get to our discussion of Best Actress from this competition. So here is a good opportunity for me to head off that criticism before we get there by calling a big win for an actor that I am generally allergic to. Let it not be said that I let my own personal preferences determine these predictions, because I really don’t “get” Rami Malek (and no, it’s not just because he stole Bradley Cooper’s rightful Oscar seven years ago… though that certainly didn’t endear me to him, either). I find him an acutely unappealing screen presence who lacks both interiority and expressiveness in nearly every performance I’ve seen from him. But I would be an idiot if I ignore the rave reviews he’s enjoyed for his portrayal of an AIDS-afflicted actor pursuing what may be his final role in 1980s New York City. Ira Sachs has a track record of directing career-best acting from performers I’m usually not a fan of, and most people clearly are fans of Malek in what is most assuredly a meaty role in a movie receiving warmer responses than some of the other Best Actor contenders I considered.
Prix d’interprétation feminine: Sandra Hüller — Fatherland
Okay, yes, before you ask, I did incorrectly predict Sandra Hüller would win this exact award three years ago. And yes, I am of the belief she’s one of Europe’s finest working actresses. But that’s not why I’m double-dipping on a prediction for her winning this award after getting it wrong the last time I made it. For one, Hüller is in a very different place in her career now than she was before moviegoers were wondering whether or not she killed her husband. She’s now an Academy Award nominee and her career has blown up, both in her home continent and the United States, having already recently won a Best Actress award at another prestigious film festival three months ago. Fatherland has been receiving some of the best reviews of any Main Competition entry at the festival, with the two most cited points of acclaim being Paweł Pawlikowski’s direction and Hüller’s performance. Is it possible that Pawlikowski will win a second Cannes Best Director award? Sure. But I think, if given the choice between the two, the jury will opt to award her, instead. The flat-out funniest outcome, of course, would be if this movie ends up winning the Palme d’Or on Saturday.
Prix du Jury: Fjord
Grand Prix: All of a Sudden
Palme d’Or: Minotaur
Friendly reminder that I make no claim whatsoever to certainty on the exact placement of these three films for these three awards. These are First, Second, and Third Place rankings, and how they ultimately shake out could literally be determined by Stellan Skarsgård and Chloé Zhao having stronger feelings about one contender than Demi Moore has for her preferred choice for the Palme. If Fjord ends up with the top award, I’ll feel pretty good about my prescience. That film is from Cristian Mungiu, who is no stranger to recognition from this festival – within the last twenty years, his entrants have won Best Director, Best Screenplay and Actress, and the Big One. It reportedly centers a growing conflict between a Norwegian community and a family of outsiders recently moving in, and the debates the film has provoked there will almost certainly be on the jurors’ minds as they discuss what they’ve been watching over the last week-and-a-half.
Two of the most acclaimed entrants at this year’s festival, however, have also been directed by filmmakers familiar with recognition at Cannes… but unlike Cristian Mungiu, neither of have ever won the top prize here… yet. They are, of course, Andrey Zvyagintsev and Ryûsuke Hamaguchi, two previous recipients of the Best Screenplay award from this festival (with the latter becoming a Best Original Screenplay nominee at the Academy Awards) who have cultivated a base of international cinephile fans with strong feelings that these two auteurs are overdue for this prize. That they have brought two of the most beloved competitors at the festival this time around has only ramped up the anticipation that this will finally be Their Year™. But there can only be one I don’t like to predict ties in these pieces, so if my instincts are right, and the jury will ultimately be debating these two, which one will ultimately prevail? Honestly, it’s a coin flip in my mind. Hamaguchi’s drama about a nursing home director introducing “Humanitude” to her residents and Zvyagintsev’s drama about an oligarch’s life falling apart in front of him against the backdrop of the Russo-Ukrainian War are two of the Croisette’s most widely-celebrated films. It is impossible for me to imagine either of them going home completely empty-handed, but I suppose, I… could see… Minotaur, with the slight edge due to its reportedly greater conceptual ambition and political commentary among an international film industry more than willing to recognize cinematic condemnations of the man who instigated this needless invasion.
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79th Cannes Film Festival Predictions (Joey)
As always, I urge you to read Robert’s explanations, as he’s always on the ball with his rationale, even if we do tend to end up with our picks being hit or miss, at best. Before I share my predictions, my quick note about my choices is that, given the run NEON has been on with the Palme d’Or, I opted to keep their streak going, since why bet against success? Also, whenever possible, I went with a different choice than Robert, just to make things interesting, as I let him choose first. Finally, in keeping with Cannes rules, I made sure not to just put my second choice for the Palme in runner up status as well as in the Grand Prix section, for example, but if you look at my picks, you can see where I think the likeliest titles are, as the Grand Prix winner would be my second choice for the Palm, and so on. Now, on to the business at hand…
Here are my Cannes picks:
Prix du scenario: Pedro Almodóvar – Bitter Christmas (alternates: Cristian Mungiu – Fjord and Ira Sachs – The Man I Love)
Prix de la mise en scène: Na Hong-jin – Hope (alternates: James Gray – Paper Tiger and Pawel Pawlikowski – Fatherland)
Prix d’interprétation masculine: Javier Bardem – The Beloved (alternates: Rami Malek – The Man I Love and Sebastian Stan – Fjord)
Prix d’interprétation feminine: Léa Seydoux – Gentle Monster / The Unknown (alternates: Virginie Efira – All of a Sudden / Parallel Tales and Sandra Hüller – Fatherland)
Prix du Jury: Fatherland (alternates: Hope and Moulin)
Grand Prix: Minotaur (alternates: Fjord and The Man I Love)
Palme d’Or: Paper Tiger (alternates: All of a Sudden and Bitter Christmas)
Well now, what do you all think, Awards Radar Community? Which predictions, if any, do you think will ultimately prevail? Which of the Main Competition entries are you most looking forward to? Let us know in the comments below…
Stay tuned to see who and what take home prizes from the 79th Cannes Film Festival!
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