Year in Advance Oscar Predictions: What the Hell Are We in Store For This Year? (Part One)

After another longer than usual break (I think this just might be how I handle things these days), it’s time to officially begin the initial conversation about the next awards season. Go figure, a bit of good timing shows up here, as the Cannes Film Festival just recently announced their lineup, helping generate some additional possibilities. As I always say in pieces like this, year in Advance predictions are either loved or loathed by those who follow the awards season. On the one hand, they’re fun and a glimpse at what the Oscars could potentially look like. On the other, they’re often a completely out of context look at the awards landscape, based mostly on buzz, hype, and speculation, as opposed to anything concrete. I’ve always been in the former camp, though in the couple of years, I’ve been moving towards the latter, where I almost now fully reside. Still, it’s part of the job, and I do actually enjoy it, so…

The past few Oscar seasons have certainly been instructive in some ways. For one, the last few years have proven that when it comes to Best Picture and statistics, only those from this modern era of preferential balloting need apply, full stop. For example, that reading made CODA make a lot more sense than a longer read on the category in its year, with the same being said last year for Everything Everywhere All At Once. This past year, however, Oppenheimer just ran away with it, negating some of the sleuthing we usually do. That being said, at this early juncture, it’s very much just a crapshoot.

The Academy is absolutely impossible to read a year out, anytime I do this, but even more so nowadays, even in light of what felt like a traditional pick last time. Just look at what I was predicting last year here (you’ll notice the commentary is even similar, since there’s nothing but blind speculation this early), with the year before right here. Several of my Best Picture picks actually made the cut in recent years, including the eventual winners, but there’s always plenty of swings and misses. I once again fully expect to do much worse this time around, but that’s just the nature of the beast. Mostly, this is something not to take too seriously. so, have fun with it!

Especially with nominations, voters are looking towards fare they never used to consider, even if some titles do feel on the traditional side. Winners still are a step or two behind the times (though Everything Everywhere All At Once really pushed things forward in both cases, while Oppenheimer sort of has a foot in both worlds), but thinking about the winner in any given category right now is absurd and foolish. Nominees, on the other hand? No, still foolish, but I’m a fool. That being said, you can look at the recent tendencies of the Academy and know that their Oscar ballots are, at least in Phase One, more open minded than ever.

I normally like to tell a story with my early predictions, but I don’t know the plot yet, so my picks are a little bit all over the place. There’s seemingly bigger contenders like Blitz and Dune: Part Two, as well as baity titles like Conclave, His Three Daughters, and Maria. Then, it’s just hunches. For example, what to make of Joker: Folie à Deux? Moreover, Netflix should be pushing Hit Man hard. Will they? Time will tell. I’ll dig in on the possibilities soon, but this is just scratching the surface.

Below, you can see my advance Oscar predictions. We shall see what, but this list is sure to change once I give it an update, likely in a month or two, though you’ll see a second part to this next week, as I recently explained. Below is the above the line categories, with below the line coming in a week, so stay tuned there…

Here now are my sure to be wrong Year in Advance predictions for the Academy Awards, written out for easy access. Behold:

BEST PICTURE

1. Blitz
2. Conclave
3. Maria
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1
6. Kinds of Kindness
7. His Three Daughters
8. The Nickel Boys
9. SNL 1975
10. Hit Man

Next in Line: 11. Joker: Folie à Deux 12. Sing Sing 13. Queer 14. Bird 15. Civil War 16. Challengers 17. The End 18. The Apprentice 19. Anora 20. The Piano Lesson 21. A Real Pain 22. Wicked 23. Gladiator 2 24. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga 25. Nosferatu

Also Consider: TBD

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Steve McQueen – Blitz
2. Denis Villeneuve – Dune: Part Two
3. Edward Berger – Conclave
4. Pablo Larraín – Maria
5. Kevin Costner – Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1

Next in Line: 6. Yorgos Lanthimos – Kinds of Kindness 7. Todd Phillips – Joker: Folie à Deux 8. Jason Reitman – SNL 1975 9. Francis Ford Coppola – Megalopolis 10. Richard Linklater – Hit Man

Also Consider: TBD

BEST ACTOR

1. Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
2. Daniel Craig – Queer
3. Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
4. Joaquin Phoenix – Joker: Folie à Deux
5. Glen Powell – Hit Man

Next in Line: 6. John David Washington – The Piano Lesson 7. André Holland – The Actor 8. Andrew Garfield – We Live in Time 9. Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice 10. Gabriel LaBelle – SNL 1975

Also Consider: TBD

BEST ACTRESS

1. Saoirse Ronan – The Outrun
2. Zendaya – Challengers
3. Angelina Jolie – Maria
4. Mickie Madison – Anora
5. Lady Gaga – Joker: Folie à Deux

Next in Line: 6. Florence Pugh – We Live in Time 7. Natasha Lyonne – His Three Daughters 8. Ryan Destiny – Flint Strong 9. Jenna Ortega – Klara and the Sun 10. Regina King – Shirley

Also Consider: TBD

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Jesse Plemons – Kinds of Kindness
2. Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
3. Stanley Tucci – Conclave
4. Harris Dickinson – Blitz
5. Samuel L. Jackson – The Piano Lesson

Next in Line: 6. Willem Dafoe – Kinds of Kindness 7. Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice 8. Cooper Hoffman – SNL 1975 9. John Lithgow – Conclave 10. Brian Tyree Henry – Flint Strong

Also Consider: TBD

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Isabella Rosselini – Conclave
2. Carrie Coon – His Three Daughters
3. Saoirse Ronan – Blitz
4. Rachel Sennott – SNL 1975
5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor – The Nickel Boys

Next in Line: 6. Elizabeth Olson – His Three Daughters 7. Ariana Grande – Wicked 8. Danielle Deadwyler  – The Piano Lesson 9. Amy Adams – Klara and the Sun 10. Ella Hunt – SNL 1975

Also Consider: TBD

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. SNL 1987
2. Blitz
3. Kinds of Kindness
4. His Three Daughters
5. A Real Pain

Next in Line: 6. The Apprentice 7. We Live in Time 8. Anora 9. The End 10. Bird

Also Consider: TBD

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Conclave
2. The Nickel Boys
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Joker: Folie à Deux
5. Hit Man

Next in Line: 6. The Piano Lesson 7. Klara and the Sun 8. Sing Sing 9. Nosferatu 10. Here

Also Consider: TBD

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Inside Out 2
2. The Wild Robot
3. Moana 2
4. Spellbound
5. Ultraman: Rising

Next in Line: TBD

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

TBD

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

TBD

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

TBD

BEST FILM EDITING

TBD

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

TBD

BEST SOUND

TBD

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

TBD

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

TBD

*The rest are TBD…*

Stay tuned for Part Two of my year in advance Oscar predictions next week!