Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: Time for Final Predictions as the Academy Will Reveal All (Their ‘Oppenheimer’ Love)

We’ve reached zero hour, ladies and gentlemen. In just a few short days, the 96th Academy Awards will be held. Basically a full year (or more, in the case of some titles) of Oscar buzz and chatter wraps up with one night of prizes being bestowed. Some categories are very wrapped up. Some are toss-ups. So, where do we stand? Well, on the precipice of knowing who and what the next slate of Academy Award winners will be. My final predictions have been made. I’m done (unless I panic, but I try not to). Today, with these picks out in the world, let’s talk about them a bit, especially in terms of the closest races.

The season has been both fast and slow. In some ways, awards season was very long. In other ways, especially once Oppenheimer‘s dominance, as well as the Supporting races, became done and dusted, it’s been a quick pivot to some obvious winners. That actually makes predicting this year even harder than usual. There’s a very high floor in terms of correct predictions, but the close races? That’s really where you’ll make your bones on Sunday.

What I’m doing this time around is separating Oscar categories into some sub-categories. I have four sections below that you’ll see, ranging from the locks to the basically pick-em races. It’s not really a surprise where things break down at this point. The key? Figuring out just how strong Oppenheimer will be, where Poor Things can pick up wins (unless it’s going to be a stunning shut out), and if Barbie can get an additional win on the board. Throw in some toss up tech categories and there’s still lots to chew on. A lot of my analysis was done on the Awards Radar Podcast here this week, so be sure to listen to that. Now, onward!

First up, the hardcore locks. The big ones, of course, are Best Picture and Best Director. Those are Oppenheimer‘s, plain and simple. The biopic is going to be the latest Best Picture winner, while Christopher Nolan is going to take home Director. Both Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress, for Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers) respectively, are also 100% locks. The same goes for some below the line Oppenheimer wins, namely Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, and Best Original Score. I’d be shocked if these wins didn’t happen. Pick against them at your own risk, or I suppose if you’re trying to go out on some wild limbs to win your Oscar pool.

Next, we have the likely done deals. These categories aren’t locks, but there’s a very obvious frontrunner and an upset would be a surprise, if not a shock. Here we have Anatomy of a Fall in Best Original Screenplay (The Holdovers is praying for some last minute votes), Oppenheimer in Best Sound (The Zone of Interest could be a Hail Mary upset pick), Barbie in Best Original Song (where What Was I Made For? could really only lose to its fellow Barbie nominee in I’m Just Ken), 20 Days in Mariupol in Best Documentary Feature, and The Zone of Interest in Best International Feature. I don’t see any of these films falling short, but it wouldn’t be unheard of for one surprise from here to happen. Watch this space to see if we’re going to be having an especially interesting night.

Now, it gets interesting. These are categories where we have a likelier winner, but there’s definitely a race going on. Here we have Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) in Best Actor, where he seems poised to beat Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers). This is also where we have Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse presumably ahead of The Boy and the Heron in Best Animated Feature. The stats back the likely winners, but there’s not a sense that they’re necessarily locked and loaded.

Finally, we have the close races. Here, I’m picking with less than a ton of confidence. The biggest one here is Best Actress, where there are compelling cases to be made for both Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) and Emma Stone (Poor Things). I’ve chosen to go Gladstone in a last minute swap, but it could legitimately go either way. There’s also a three way race in Best Adapted Screenplay between American Fiction, Barbie, and Oppenheimer. Watch out for Nolan if it’s a sweep sort of night, but I have American Fiction portending a disappointing evening for Barbie. As such, the battles between Barbie and Poor Things in Best Production Design and Best Costume Design I have going to the latter. I also have the Yorgos Lanthimos flick emerging victorious against Maestro in Best Makeup & Hairstyling. Could I be wrong? 100%. Then, there’s Best Visual Effects, where I could easily see The Creator (which I’ve narrowly decided to pick), Godzilla Minus One, or Napoleon taking the prize. Then, there’s the Shorts, which I have no real insight on. You’ll see the trio I’ve selected below, but do as you please there. Anyone who tells you they actually know which shorts will win is, excuse my French, a fucking liar. When it comes to these three categories, especially this year, we’re all just guessing.

My prior prediction piece (found right here) is still available for your perusal, but we’ve come to the end. By the conclusion of the weekend, we’ll know how I did, as well as how all of you did. Exciting, right? I know I’m ready to find out, and I certainly can’t be the only one. Regardless of the outcome, the season has been a fascinating one, so there will be lessons and memories that live on after the Oscars are over.

Folks, as always you can see my crack at Oscar predictions, plus my WGA predictions right here at Awards Radar, as they’re the only other thing left to predict, but they happen after the Academy Awards. It’ll all be over in just a few short days. Full steam ahead to the Academy Award telecast. Sit tight for the results…

Stay tuned to see how my final predictions turn out when the Academy Awards are held on Sunday!