Joey Magidson
Welcome to March. The Academy Awards are now just over a week away, if you can believe it? Final voting ended back on Tuesday, so the votes are literally being tabulated. Technically, it’s possible some folks already know who and what have won Oscars. So, now we wait. Next week will be the big week, with every pundit, myself included, figuring out their final predictions. However, with the Guilds done, I wanted to do a bit of an update and talk about the state of the race. Oppenheimer sure seems unbeatable, doesn’t it? Spoiler alert…it is.
The precursors, aside from the Writers Guild, have had their say. We can disregard the WGA prize this year, obviously, and the Independent Spirit Awards lacked many of the nominees. The others, however? They definitely led us to where we are, namely BAFTA, alongside the Directors Guild, Producers Guild, and Screen Actors Guild. BAFTA, DGA, PGA, and SAG all went Oppenheimer (and/or Christopher Nolan), while the SAG Awards probably put Cillian Murphy ahead to stay. The Guilds confirmed what we already knew. The movie is going to dominate.
Oppenheimer heads into Oscar night as the overwhelming favorite for Best Picture, Best Director for Nolan, Best Supporting Actor for Robert Downey Jr., and several technical prizes, as well as seeming like a strong bet in Best Actor for Murphy. If it’s truly a huge night for the flick, Nolan could also take home Best Adapted Screenplay. Could it get to double digit wins? It would have to pull a surprise or two, but is it impossible? Not in the slightest.
Beyond the Oppenheimer of it all, a lot of categories do seem fairly cut and dried, at least upon a glance. Could the Academy Awards be a surprise-free event? Of course not, but it does seem like only a few places are where the tension is building. Actor is definitely not locked up for Murphy, with Paul Giamatti still at least somewhat in play. Best Actress is basically a pick-em between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone, while Adapted Screenplay could go to any of American Fiction, Barbie, and Oppenheimer. Some of the techs still appear close between the likes of Barbie and Poor Things, at least where Oppenheimer hasn’t overtaken them. Those spots, as well as the Shorts, that’s where you’ll make your bones in your Oscar pool.
So, next week I’ll finalize my predictions. I’ll be thinking more about the competitive ones I’ve mentioned above, but a lot is set in stone. In particular, it’s going to be a hell of a night for Nolan and Oppenheimer. I’ve set the stage here and here for that, but it’ll become real next weekend. He deserves it and the film deserves it, so no issues here. We just won’t have any suspense when the Best Picture envelope is opened…
My prior prediction piece (found right here) is still available for your perusal and lets you all see my pre-nominations logic. We’re close to midnight here, and while Oppenheimer is not going to be stopped, there will be some nail-biter categories. Things will be exciting, not just a coronation, I promise. Where? Well, we’ll tackle that more next week, now won’t we?
Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at Oscar predictions, plus my WGA predictions right here at Awards Radar, as they’re the only precursor left, and they happen after the Oscars. It’ll all be over in a just over a week, so gird your loins. Next week will be final predictions, so these picks today are one step removed from that Sit tight for those…
Stay tuned for a final update to these Oscar predictions next week!
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