Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: Voting is Now Open as the Academy Enters Into the Home Stretch

The time is now! As of yesterday, voting for the Academy Awards has begun! We’ve reached the point where Oscar votes are officially being entered into the ledger, as it were. The entire season has been, for all intents and purposes, reduced to clicking a link for members of the Academy. Just over two weeks from now, the ceremony will be had. There will be tons of pomp and circumstance, but truly, the next few days are the time that actually matters. So, it’s time to talk about it, while also sharing some recently updated predictions. More are on the horizon, but we’re putting a flag down today, as things barrel towards the finish line.

Voters are actually making their Oscar decisions now, so this is the moment to really be paying attention. BAFTA last week had some input, and now it’s the Producers Guild and the Screen Actors Guild. One could have major say, while the other will just confirm what we already knew. For those unaware, you can disregard the Writers Guild prizes this year, since the WGA ceremony is after the Oscars. Oh well.

PGA is going to be very anticlimactic, as any result other than Oppenheimer would be literally shocking. Christopher Nolan‘s epic is going to win the top prize here, on the way to Best Picture at the Academy Awards, plain and simple. Unless there’s an Earth-shattering upset, that’s just where we stand with the producers.

SAG, on the other hand, should be interesting. Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress should be coronations for Oppenheimer‘s Robert Downey Jr. and The Holdovers‘ Da’Vine Joy Randolph, respectively, but elsewhere there’s some intrigue. Best Ensemble will probably be Oppenheimer, but this is where a realistic upset could happen. Then, Best Actor and Best Actress are going down to the wire. Paul Giamatti and Cillian Murphy are essentially a pick-em right now, so there’s nothing wrong with giving the edge to who wins here. I might lean in the direction of The Holdovers‘ star in Actor, but it’s very close. As for Actress, Emma Stone seems to be leading Lily Gladstone, but the Poor Things star certainly hasn’t pulled away from the pack. This could end up being the only place Killers of the Flower Moon realistically can win with the Academy, so Gladstone may well benefit. Stay tuned there.

Elsewhere, below the line does now seem to mostly be Oppenheimer and Poor Things duking it out, with Barbie hoping to sneak in a win. That’s one of the only other big bits of impending Oscar night intrigue, give or take Best Animated Feature and Best Visual Effects. The former has The Boy and the Heron more or less tied up with Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, while the latter seems completely wide open. These are the spots where your predictions will ultimately end up living or dying.

My prior prediction piece (found right here) is still available for your perusal and lets you all see my pre-nominations logic. Now, we have voting for the Academy Awards going on. We have an idea who the main frontrunners are. It’s up to the final Guilds to either confirm them or throw us some last minute curveballs.

Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at Oscar predictions, plus my current PGA, SAG, WGA, and Spirit Awards predictions right here at Awards Radar. It’ll all be over in a few weeks, so gird your loins. The Guilds are about to wrap up with a major say this weekend. We’ll take it from there, but for now, it’s one of the final moments of waiting. Sit tight…

Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions very soon!