Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: Where Does the Race Stand Now That the Academy Award Nominations Are Here?

Welcome to Phase Two, ladies and gentlemen. After Tuesday morning’s Oscar nominations, the next stage of the awards game has begun. Between now and March 10th, we’ll see if the current frontrunners remain, if any surprises happen with the Guilds, and just what our next crop of Academy Award winners will look like. As such, today I present to you new/updated predictions, as well as a state of the race.

Predictions-wise, I did about my average, acing a few of the categories, while getting wiped out in Best Documentary Feature, like most. Mainly, I suffered by believing the last minute buzz for Saltburn, as well as not believing the murmurs about the potential Barbie snubs. Oh well, that’s just the name of the prognostication game, after all.

For all the money, it looks right now like Oppenheimer is going to run away with this. Best Picture isn’t quite sewn up yet, though you’d be foolish to bet against anything else right now. Best Director for Christopher Nolan is a wrap, though. Look for the film to do well below the line as well. It’s not going to sweep, given the technical strengths of other flicks in contention, but a number of wins are on the table. More on that in a moment.

Barbie, on the other hand, had the notable misses for Greta Gerwig in Director and Margot Robbie in Best Actress. It should have Best Original Song in the bag, and Gerwig/Noah Baumbach could be boosted in Best Adapted Screenplay, but this is the rare situation where eight nominations somehow seems like an under-performance. How the furor over its snubs plays out will have a lot to do with how things turn out in March.

The acting frontrunners appear pretty clear-cut. Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress seem done and dusted. Da’Vine Joy Randolph is going to win the Oscar in Supporting Actress for The Holdovers, while it sure looks like Robert Downey Jr. has Supporting Actor as his to lose for Oppenheimer. Best Actor and Best Actress, however, are legitimate races. Paul Giamatti feels like he’s in the lead in Actor for The Holdovers, but you’d be silly to count out Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer. As for Actress, that’s our closest race of the major categories, with Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone really duking it out, for Killers of the Flower Moon and Poor Things, respectively.

Below the line, the expected battles between Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things is going to play out. The question for me is if Killers of the Flower Moon goes home empty-handed in a scenario where Gladstone loses Actress. Barbie and Oppenheimer will mostly be duking it out with Poor Things in the techs. The safe bet is on Oppenheimer in most spots, but watch out for the precursors to potentially give us some hints.

My prior prediction piece (found right here) is still available for your perusal and lets you all see my pre-nominations logic. Now, we know who the Academy has nominated. We have an idea who the current frontrunners are. It’s up to the Guilds to either confirm them or throw us some last minute curveballs.

Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at Oscar predictions, plus my current DGA, PGA, SAG, and Spirit Awards predictions right here at Awards Radar. The tinkering should be fairly minimal until those Guilds chime in. Then, all bets could be off, but barring any interesting surprises, we may be in for more coronations than not. Sit tight to find out…

Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions soon!