Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: Final Picks Before the Academy Award Nominations Are Announced

Ladies and gentlemen, we’ve reached the end of Phase One. The Academy has closed voting, which means that membership had their say. Oscar ballots have been tabulated, so the Academy Award nominations are looming large on Tuesday morning. As such, I’ve not just updated predictions (you can hear about some of my thought process on the most recent podcast here), but I’d like to share what things could look like when all is said and done. Join me, why don’t you?

Today, I’ll be going down the line and sharing some thoughts on the major categories. Predictions have been updated or are about to be updated, so you’ll be able to see where I fell once those are finalized. I usually don’t touch them after that, but given how passive I’ve been about them this season, I might give myself the okay to take one last glance over the weekend. Either way, I’ve more or less decided where I’m staking my claims.

We can begin with Best Director, the easiest of the major categories. Christopher Nolan will be nominated for Oppenheimer and win the Oscar. I also feel very confident that we’ll see Yorgos Lanthimos and Martin Scorsese as nominees for Poor Things and Killers of the Flower Moon, respectively. Then, it gets interesting. I’m not prepared to predict Greta Gerwig being snubbed for Barbie, but it’s a distinct possibility. She’s currently fighting it out with fellow DGA nominee Alexander Payne (for The Holdovers), as well as potential party crasher Jonathan Glazer (for The Zone of Interest). Anyone else would be a surprise, though I know some think Celine Song for Past Lives or Justine Triet for Anatomy of a Fall could benefit from a Gerwig snub. As for Bradley Cooper? It looks like his directing in Maestro will again be ignored by voters, though he’ll be honored elsewhere.

As for Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress, there are frontrunners, as well as questions. Actress is a two horse race between Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon and Emma Stone for Poor Things. Despite the SAG miss, I feel good about Sandra Hüller still being nominated for Anatomy of a Fall, while Carey Mulligan for Maestro should make it. That leaves Margot Robbie for Barbie as the vulnerable one, though I don’t know that I see voters snubbing her. If they do, however, it’ll be to the benefit of Annette Bening for Nyad, most likely. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor for Origin is rumored to be this year’s Andrea Riseborough, but you’ll just be playing a full on hunch if you predict her (not that it can’t happen, just that the science of it all doesn’t back that pick up). Supporting Actress, on the other hand, is basically a done deal, with Da’Vine Joy Randolph poised to win the Oscar for The Holdovers. I think Emily Blunt will join her as a nominee for Oppenheimer, while Danielle Brooks should get in for The Color Purple, despite the film on the cusp of showing up nowhere else. That leaves two slots. I have Jodie Foster for Nyad getting in, and I’m potentially going to have Rosamund Pike as my No Guts No Glory for Saltburn, but if not, Penélope Cruz for Ferrari, Julianne Moore for May December, and America Ferrera for Barbie loom on the periphery.

When it comes to Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor, we have some fun races to watch evolve. Actor has seen both Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers and Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer win prizes, moving to the front of the line. Cooper will join them, while I’m actually predicting a snub for Leonardo DiCaprio (for Killers of the Flower Moon), which paves the way for Colman Domingo (for Rustin) and Jeffrey Wright (for American Fiction) to both get in, instead of just one. That leaves someone like Andrew Scott out in the cold for All of Us Strangers, but it could be a tough morning for that film in general. Supporting Actor is looking good for three gentlemen for sure, in Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), and Ryan Gosling (Barbie). RDJ has dominated so far, and a SAG win could make it done and dusted, but Gosling looms as a threat still. The final two slots could easily go to both Poor Things co-stars in Willem Dafoe and Mark Ruffalo. However, they’re vulnerable, so only one could get in. Charles Melton has seen his stock fall, though the May December breakout is far from eliminated. The potential surprise? Watch out for Sterling K. Brown to get in for American Fiction. Don’t be shocked if he slips in.

The two Screenplay categories were thrown for a loop by Barbie and Origin being deemed Adapted as opposed to Original. In Best Adapted Screenplay, I think Barbie could still end up the frontrunner, though other safe nominees appear to be the other big four in Best Picture, making for a quality five. Now, All of Us Strangers and Origin are right there, as is The Zone of Interest, but they’re up against the presumed heavy hitters in Picture, so it might be tough. As for Best Original Screenplay, there’s a very competitive race here, led by Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, and Past Lives. How they do elsewhere could easily determine which script becomes the most likely to win the Oscar Those final two positions could be anything from a glut that includes Air, Maestro, May December, and Saltburn. I’d look for a surprise here too, potentially. It’s as open ended as any above the line field.

Below the line, we’ll see the big players competing for most of the technical categories. So, while it could be a fight between Barbie, Oppenheimer, and Poor Things, be on the lookout to see if something like Killers of the Flower Moon over or under performs. Plus, maybe something like Saltburn pops up in more places than initially expected. Finally, don’t sweat it if you struggle with the bottom of the Best Documentary Feature and Best International Feature categories, likewise with Best Original Song. They’re the spots where we’re poised to see films nominated without any real attention previously.

Finally, we have the Best Picture race. I’ve opted to go with the PGA ten, which I would usually caution against, but they’re misses are usually in favor of more populist and mainstream fare. They didn’t go for any unusual movies that would fit that ilk, like with Deadpool in the past, so this lineup does make a lot of sense. I’d label The Zone of Interest the most vulnerable flick, and if it misses, it will be to the benefit of either The Color Purple or Saltburn (which could be quietly coming on strong, unless it was too late), though you can’t count out something like All of Us Strangers, Air, or May December surprising. It seems like Oppenheimer‘s to lose, but the full slate of nominees will tell us something, for sure.

My prior prediction piece (found right here) is still available for your perusal, and can see where I’ve ultimately landed, nomination wise, if you click around (once I actually put in the final update on those category pages). The Academy has voted. The numbers are tabulated. Next week, we’ll know who and what gets Oscar nominated. We’ve done what we can. It’s on them now!

Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at Oscar predictions, as well as my initial DGA, PGA, SAG, and Spirit Awards predictions right here at Awards Radar. The tinkering should be done by the time you’re reading this (if they’re not, just give it a bit and then refresh), even though I do reserve the right to make a last minute change or two. Either way, we get our answers on Tuesday morning. So, sit tight…

Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions after the nominations are announced!