Joey Magidson
Folks, somehow it’s December. The final month of the year is also where the awards season truly gets into gear. You can see here the schedule of precursors, which are going to be ubiquitous from here until literally Oscar night. First, the Critics Groups chime in, followed by the Guilds. Then, the Academy has their say. It’ll be a fascinating few months, as it always is. With my predictions having been tinkered with earlier this week, as well as a new month arriving, it’s time to check in on the season, with a special focus on the precursors themselves.
This week saw the Gotham Awards handed out, as well as just yesterday the prestigious New York Film Critics Circle Awards. Those results are here and here, respectively, and saw top prizes go to Past Lives and Killers of the Flower Moon. Both films seem to be right in the thick of the Best Picture race. The same goes for several of the acting wins at these ceremonies. However, is anything suddenly likely to repeat at the Academy Awards? No, not based on just these. That’s a lot of what I want to remind you all of today…the precursor season is exciting, but keep your hot takes on the inside for now.
Since we’re in the Critics Group portion of the precursor season, it’s important to remember that this is basically just the tastemaker section of the season. These groups are of various tastes, helping to set up what the most beloved films and performances from pundits are in a given year. Sometimes, we see a ton of different winners, while other times, an early consensus seems to form. The thing is, it’s all moot until the second part of the precursor season, as we’ve seen before. Remember when The Social Network dominated with almost every Critics Group, as did David Fincher, only to fall short once Guilds like the Directors Guild of America and Producers Guild of America decided that The King’s Speech and Tom Hooper was what they wanted to get behind. Hey, I’m a critic and agreed with the critics, but by Oscar night, it was clear which way the wind was blowing.
Yesterday, I posted this on social media:
That tweet (yes, I’m still calling them tweets) is evergreen for this time of year, but I always feel like I need to do it. Almost immediately, you see people extrapolating a singular win into an entire Oscar season path. Does that kind of run sometimes happen? Of course. Still, it’s not necessarily the norm, and even if it starts happening more often, it’s not these particular precursors that are fueling an Academy member’s vote. It just isn’t.
I can’t stress this enough. No one win will change the race in any way. Again, there’s no Oscar correlation, so it’s very much just a setting of the stage. Showing up with the Critics Groups is obviously a good thing, but if you’re throwing out your predictions and updating every single time a regional group announces their wins, let alone their nominations, you’re doing this wrong. It takes time to see the Matrix (or to do whatever it is Tom Cruise is doing with the Pre-Cogs in Minority Report), so observe this part of the season from at least a partial remove. It’ll help for later on, when the crucial moments in the race actually happen.
Now, watch out for patterns. Let’s take Lily Gladstone and Charles Melton for example, since they both won at each of this week’s precursors. Are they now the frontrunners in Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor, respectively? Not at all. Are they even locked in for nominations? Not really, though Gladstone always seemed likely. However, if this continues, they’ll build momentum, first for the nomination itself, but then to be seen not just as a contender, but a winner. It happens in stages. This is simply the first stage, and the very beginning of it, to boot.
What will really matter is once we get into the Guild portion of the season. That’s where the Academy crossover is, as well as where history and statistics come into play. We’re still a bit of a ways from there, but once we arrive at that point, we’ll have more of a sense where things stand. So, just keep that in mind as the Critics Groups begin to come in hot and heavy with their results.
Until the Guilds chime in, it’s very much anyone’s ballgame. Remember, something like Oppenheimer is likely to do better with the Critics in Best Director for Christopher Nolan, as opposed to Best Picture fields. It’s not going to mean it isn’t still the prohibitive favorite on Oscar night. Likewise, we’re going to see things like Anatomy of a Fall and May December potentially over-perform, though over-performance is how you get there for a smaller work in the first place.
For now, just enjoy the potential chaos. We’re going to see some of the presumed contenders lock and load with citations left and right, while others are nowhere to be found. It’s all a puzzle, as I like to say, and while we won’t have many pieces, the beginnings of organizing the pieces we do have are now kicking into motion…
My prior prediction piece (found right here) is still available for your perusal, and can see some more of the changes I’ve been making along the way if you click around. It’s officially the precursor season, so while this piece is mostly cautioning you not to read too much into any one prize, keep an eye on the season on the whole. If someone or something is showing up a lot, that’s obviously beneficial. If there are purported snubs, at least hold off on crossing them fully out until the Guilds chime in. Stay tuned for all the fun!
Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at advance Oscar predictions (which, again, officially are just considered regular old new predictions, as opposed to year in advance) right here at Awards Radar. The changes are coming, and will continue to come, more and more, as the precursors continue on. So, sit tight for much more…
Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions in a couple of weeks!
Worth noting, I think, that the New York Film Critics Circle never extended any of their awards toward any Christopher Nolan films until now (no, not even Best Supporting Actor in 2008). And even in this case, it reportedly was a wrenching and contentious process; three rounds of voting before he finally emerged as their Best Director.
That’s a good example of what you can take from an announcement like this, as opposed to simply declaring a win is a win. Now, Nolan is probably in the best position of anyone to win the Oscar, and obviously winning here for the first time is noteworthy, but it’s not a simple black and white situation.