As of yesterday, the Academy has begun voting! Yes, Oscar votes are officially being entered into the ledger, as it were. The entire season has been reduced to clicking a link for members of the Academy. The pomp and circumstance of the Oscars is now nine days away as of this publishing. Can you believe it? It really does feel like the last Academy Awards ceremony, problematic as it was, just happened. And yet, here we are.
Earlier in the week, I rank down the three most competitive acting categories here. These choices are the ones, plus a few below the line decisions, that are going to drive us nuts for the next week and change. That article I wrote set the stage for the mindset that we’re in while voting is going on. Next week, when I finalize things, you’ll see more of my full thoughts. Today, however, while I’ve updated predictions, I’m mostly just focusing in on where things stand.
One of the things to look out for is if Everything Everywhere All At Once manages to fully dominate. In addition to Best Picture and Best Director (not to mention Best Supporting Actor), does it take Best Actress and/or Best Supporting Actress? What about Best Original Screenplay? There’s a world where six of the top eight categories go to the film. That doesn’t even account for the tech fields, either. The movie could be looking at seven or eight wins, which we haven’t seen in a while, if everything goes its way.
The other factor is just how much of a thing All Quiet on the Western Front manages to be. What once seemed like merely a Best International Feature play, with a bunch of nominations as a bonus, now is very different. Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Sound, these are all on the table, plus more. The flick could easily end up with the second most wins on Oscar night.
On the flip side to all of this, some major contenders could wind up ultimately shut out. Truly, the films with no wins could be our early frontrunners. Depending on how things shake out, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, and Top Gun: Maverick could all go home empty-handed. Extrapolate a bit and the inglorious field also includes TÁR, basically all of our perceived major players. Go figure, right?
Next week, I’ll obviously have final predictions to share, alongside my personal picks. So, look out for a Will Win / Should win article this time next week. For the moment, it’s now a waiting game, since we’re unlikely to learn much from the Independent Spirit Awards, Writers Guild Awards, or USC Scripter Award. It’s Oscar or bust, now!
As always, prior predictions pieces for the Academy Awards can be found right here, showcasing my thought process throughout the season. As a reminder, final predictions for the Writers Guild Awards are here. Plus, my picks for the Independent Spirit Awards are here. Give those a look, too, for sure.
Folks, as always you can see my latest crack at Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar. We’re almost at the end of Phase Two now, so sit tight for the final predictions piece next week, where I’ll try to make sense of how the Academy voted. Until then, we wait…
Stay tuned for a final update to these Oscar predictions next week!