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Awards Radar TV’s 2023 SAG Awards Predictions (Brain vs. Heart)

Tonight the 29th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards will take place bestowing honors on the best performances and performers from the past year of television. The nominees consist of returning nominees like The Crown, Barry, The White Lotus and Only Murders In the Building. Then there are the new kids on the block who are making a lot of awards buzz – shows like The Old Man, The Bear, Abbott Elementary, and Wednesday. 2022 also marked the conclusion to beloved and multiple-nominated two series Better Call Saul and Ozark.

Every awards season my goal is to be as objective as possible, yet my brain and heart always perform a tug-of-war between what should/could win and what will win. Factoring in the human elements often blurs the line. Personal stories of the actors such as Christina Applegate’s courageous fight with health issues to go out and deliver perhaps the best work of her career or that final chance to give an ending series a much-deserved honor on the way out the door.

Below are my predictions for this year’s awards. Let’s see what wins my brain or heart:

Best TV Drama Ensemble

Better Call Saul
The Crow
The White Lotus

Speaking of heart, Better Call Saul has been a favorite for many since season one. Still, the series has not won a single SAG Award (or Emmy for that matter). Is it possible to send this series home empty handed again? With tough competition across the board this may be the series’ best chance to take the honor. What stands in Saul’s way is a big White Lotus which has been an awards magnet. This is a flip a coin category. 

Will Win: The White Lotus

Watch out for: Better Call Saul

Best TV Drama Actor

Jason Bateman, Ozark
Jonathan Banks, Better Call Saul
Jeff Bridges, The Old Man
Bob Odenkirk, Better Call Saul
Adam Scott, Severance

Again, Better Call Saul is a frontrunner and this time around I have to believe that five-time SAG nominee Bob Odenkirk will finally take home the honor. Another strong category across the board but the Jimmy McGill/Saul Goodman arc is one that I (my brain) cannot be denied the recognition. 

Will Win: Bob Odenkirk

Watch out for: Jeff Bridges

Best TV Drama Actress

Jennifer Coolidge, The White Lotus
Elizabeth Debicki, The Crown
Julia Garner, Ozark
Laura Linney, Ozark
Zendaya, Euphoria

Zendaya delivered a heart-wrenching performance in season two, episode 5 of Euphoria, “Stand Still Like The Hummingbird” secured her spot on this list months ago. In the meantime, Jennifer Coolidge has become an awards (and awards speech giving) darling. Add to that just how much she stood out in a very strong ensemble and I feel she slips in for the win. Never count out Garner though, voters just love her too.

Will Win: Jennifer Coolidge

Watch out for: Zendaya 

Best TV Comedy Ensemble

Abbott Elementary
The Bear
Only Murders in the Building

Wow! What a category, five comedies, five completely different types of shows – all of which have strong supporters. The Bear was the buzziest comedy out there, the one that made the loudest roar with critics and fans who seemed to not just want, but need to share. But, in today’s climate where bad news is all around us, I think Abbott’s warm-hearted vibes, sharp humor and across-the-board strong performances give it the edge. Plus, I think The Bear will not walk away empty handed – see below.

Will Win: Abbott Elementary

Watch out for: The Bear

Best TV Comedy Actor

Anthony Carrigan, Barry
Bill Hader, Barry
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building 
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear

For the reasons given above for The Bear in Comedy Ensamble my pick has to go with White. He is excellent in the series, plus he is pretty much a new kid on the block on the awards scene even though he paid his dues with eleven seasons on Shameless. With that said, I will be very pleased with any name announced on this list.

Will Win: Jeremy Allen White

Watch out for: Bill Hader

Best TV Comedy Actress

Christina Applegate, Dead to Me
Rachel Brosnahan, The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel
Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary
Jenna Ortega, Wednesday
Jean Smart, Hacks

This one is a tough call too, but with Smart having already won I think this decision is easier to give this to Brunson who delivers stellar work on a very loved series. Ortega and Applegate also have a shot to surprise. I still expect Brunson to move to the head of the class.

Will Win: Quinta Brunson

Watch out for: Jean Smart

Best TV Movie/Miniseries Actor

Steve Carell, The Patient
Taron Egerton, Black Bird
Sam Elliott, 1883
Paul Walter Hauser, Black Bird
Evan Peters, Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story

Miniseries categories are always a tough call since they have little history to base decisions on. For that reason, the success of the series and past wins at other awards factor heavily. Two names stand out, Peters and Hauser. The biggest concern with Peters is not his incredible work but rather how people feel about a series that many find questionably insensitive to the real-life victims. Still, I think Evan Peters takes the trophy.

Will Win: Evan Peters

Watch out for: Paul Walter Hauser

Best TV Movie/Miniseries Actress

Jessica Chastain, George and Tammy
Niecy Nash-Betts, Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story
Emily Blunt, The English
Julia Garner, Inventing Anna
Amanda Seyfried, The Dropout

All awards season Amanda Seyfried’s name has been called as she has taken home numerous honors for her transformative work in The Dropout. It looks like that will continue tonight. But, never count out Garner, voters just love her too.

Will Win: Amanda Seyfried

Watch out for: Julia Garner

Best TV Stunt Ensemble

The Boys
House of the Dragon
The Lord of the Rings: The Rings of Power
Stranger Things

House of the Dragon
not only returned viewers back to the world of Game of Thrones, it brought back the weekly watercooler talk we remembered from the franchise. Andor has a lot of love too, but among all these very worthy nominees, I think the fire is strongest in the belly of this Dragon. 

Will Win: House of the Dragon

Watch out for: Andor

Agree? Disagree? Let us know in the comment section. Also, be sure to watch Awards Radar’s TV coverage as we continue with some amazing Emmys coverage over the next few months.


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Written by Steven Prusakowski

Steven Prusakowski has been a cinephile as far back as he can remember, literally. At the age of ten, while other kids his age were sleeping, he was up into the late hours of the night watching the Oscars. Since then, his passion for film, television, and awards has only grown. For over a decade he has reviewed and written about entertainment through publications including Awards Circuit and Screen Radar. He has conducted interviews with some of the best in the business - learning more about them, their projects and their crafts. He is a graduate of the RIT film program. You can find him on Twitter and Letterboxd as @FilmSnork – we don’t know why the name, but he seems to be sticking to it.

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