Joey Magidson
This weekend, it stands to reason that a good portion of the Oscar season will be decided. Truly, no weekend is more pivotal to the season, aside from the weekend of the actual Academy Awards ceremony, than this one. The Producers Guild of America and the Screen Actors Guild are giving out their prizes, which will heavily influence Academy voters. Considering that this comes right after BAFTA, where All Quiet on the Western Front put forth a massive show of force (more on that below), it’s a crucial moment in time. BAFTA set the stage and now PGA will team with SAG to potentially bring down the house. As such, my predictions all around have been updated (or finalized, where applicable) to reflect the moment.
With PGA, it’s a question of how preferential balloting treats Everything Everywhere All At Once. It’s a perceived Oscar weakness for the flick, so if it wins here, it’s game over. Now, we’ve previously been looking at The Banshees of Inisherin and The Fabelmans as its main Best Picture conversation, but here it seems like the big threat is Top Gun: Maverick. Watch what wins here, because if there’s a turn to a new leader in the clubhouse, it’ll be because of a PGA win on their balloting system, which the Academy shares.
As for SAG, it seems like the Best Actor and Best Actress races will be decided on Sunday. Cate Blanchett vs Michelle Yeoh, one last time for Actress, while Austin Butler can fully hold off Colin Farrell and Brendan Fraser in Actor. If anything but Everything Everywhere All At Once takes Best Ensemble, it’ll be an upset, while the frontrunners in the Supporting categories will seek wins to get them back on the coronation track.
The other big contender to pay attention to, regardless of the above results, is All Quiet on the Western Front. BAFTA really boosted its chances in a number of categories. Consider the following:
– Seven of the last ten films to win Film not in English Language have won International Film at the Oscars, and they’ve matched the last four years.
– With Edward Berger‘s BAFTA Best Director win, this is the first time a non-Oscar nominated director received a win over Oscar-nominees since Ben Affleck with 2012’s Argo.
– Five of the last five films to win Best Adapted Screenplay at BAFTA went on to win the Adapted Screenplay Oscar.
– Nine of the last ten films to win Best Cinematography at the BAFTAS went on to win at the Oscars.
– Eight of the last ten films to win Best Music at BAFTA have won Best Original Score at the Oscars, and they’ve matched the last three years.
– Nine of the last ten films to win Best Sound at BAFTA went on to win a Sound Oscar.
Not all of that will translate in the film’s favor, but there’s a very good chance that it winds up winning more Oscars than any other nominee on the big night. Prior to the nominations, who would have expected that?
Come Monday, we’ll know a lot more about where the Academy Awards are headed. Once PGA and SAG are in the rearview mirror, the only major Guild left will be the Writers Guild, and to be fair, WGA doesn’t have the same impact, Oscar-wise. So, this weekend is paramount to the discussion.
Prior predictions pieces for the Academy Awards can be found right here, showcasing my thought process throughout the season. As a reminder, brand new predictions for PGA, SAG, and WGA are here, here, and here. Plus, my picks for the Independent Spirit Awards are here. Give those a look, too. Without question, the Oscars will be influenced by these remaining Guilds, so ignore them at your own peril, not that any of you actually would.
Folks, as always you can see my latest crack at Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar. We’re well into Phase Two now, so sit tight for the final major precursors, which will clue us in to how the Academy likely will end up voting…
Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions very soon!
Interesting that at the moment you still have Top Gun;Maverick winning sound. Bearing in mind that recently both sound and editing have gone to the same film, if you pick it for sound I feel that you should also pick it for editing. Right now like you i’m on Everything for editing so therefore and especially after the Bafta win, All Quiet seems more logical for sound. However, you could be spot on!
That’s certainly true, but considering how I’m tempted to put Top Gun: Maverick in the number two spot in Picture, that Sound win feels a bit important still. That being said, come Monday morning, it all gets a facelift.