The Screen Actors Guild Awards are this Sunday, February 27th. The Screen Actors Guild includes not only film and television performers in their voting body but AFTRA as well, which gives news anchors, voice-over artists, and meteorologists the chance to vote. If you work in television gaining your peers recognition matters and propel a winner or even a nominee to bigger prizes—Emmys. It’s important to remember that since the SAG Awards honor Drama, Comedy and Limited Series, they combine lead and supporting performers into one battle to the death category.
Check out Awards Radar for our collective ranked predictions for both the Television and Film predicted winners. The ARTV team including Steven Prusakowski, Paloma Bennett, Niki Cruz, Abe Friedtanzer, Chris James, Bradley Weir, and Amanda Spears (that’s me) put our heads together to break down each race.
Even though one may contribute to the overall predictions sometimes while looking at the rankings a person gets a funny feeling. Something inside—a gut reaction tells you the predicted winner is vulnerable. Depending on whom the predicted winner is it could be Ensemble or individual performer either in second or third sometimes even fifth place that one needs to be on the lookout for. Below is a look at both the predicted winners and the ensemble/actors most likely to upset.
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series:
“The Handmaid’s Tale” – Hulu
“The Morning Show” – AppleTV+
“Squid Game” – Netflix
“Succession” – HBO
“Yellowstone” – Paramount
Awards Radar Predicted Winner: “Succession” – HBO
Be on the lookout for: “Squid Game”
Thoughts: No show is more popular right now than “Succession,” the industry and critics love it. The series third season is competing for the first time this year and received four individual nominations including its Ensemble nod it is this year’s most nominated drama series. “Succession” will have to get past the mega-popular Netflix series “Squid Game.” The cult favorite could go the same route as other past favorites that took home the trophy, such as “NYPD Blue” (1995), “CSI” (2004), “Lost” (2005), “Grey’s Anatomy” (2006), and “Stranger Things” (2016).” “Squid Game,” received two individual nominations as well as a Stunt nomination where it is heavily favored to win. Should Squid Game win both Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Drama Series and Stunt Ensemble they would make history as the first series to do so—something seven time Stunt winner “Game of Thrones” could not do.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Drama Series
Brian Cox- “Succession”
Billy Crudup – “The Morning Show“
Kieran Culkin – Succession
Lee Jung-jae – “Squid Game”
Jeremy Strong – “Succession”
Awards Radar Predicted Winner: Jeremy Strong – Succession
Be on the lookout for: Brian Cox- Succession
Thoughts: The men of Succession, have already made history by landing three nominations in this category. For Culkin and Crudup they will have another chance to face-off at the Emmys for Best Drama Supporting Actor. Everything appears to be going Strong’s way as he’s coming off a Golden Globe win for the third season adding to his Emmy for the second season. But Strong, will once again need to be on the lookout for his onscreen papa Cox as the category has preferred the elder statesman in the past: Anthony Edward was preferred over George Clooney for “ER” (1995) and Dennis Franz was the choice over Jimmy Smits for “NYPD Blue” (1996). Don’t be shocked if Cox upsets.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series
Jennifer Aniston – “The Morning Show”
Jung Ho-yeon – “Squid Game”
Elisabeth Moss – “The Handmaid’s Tale”
Sarah Snook – “Succession”
Reese Witherspoon – “The Morning Show“
Awards Radar Predicted Winner: Sarah Snook – “Succession”
Be on the lookout for: Jennifer Aniston – “The Morning Show”
Thoughts: This is one category where I disagree with the Awards Radar Predicted winner. Yes, Snook is on a role after winning a Golden Globe. This is a category that prefers lead performers. Ask yourself does her name and performance fit in on this list of past supporting ladies to have won: Allison Janney (“West Wing,” 2000-2001), Sandra Oh (“Grey’s Anatomy,” 2005), Chandra Wilson (“Grey’s Anatomy,” 2006) Jessica Lange (“American Horror Story,” 2011), Maggie Smith (“Downton Abbey,” 2013) and Gillian Anderson (“The Crown,” 2021). Maybe—maybe not. Also factor in that only “The Sopranos” (1999 and 2007) and “West Wing” (2000-2001) have been able to successfully sweep all of the drama races and “Succession” is heavily favored to win both Ensemble and Actor and Snook starts looking really vulnerable.
If not Snook than whom? Lookout for Aniston. Whether it’s on the Drama or Comedy Side the SAG Awards love to double-down—meaning if you win once your chances of winning again improve. Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Drama Series has had seven ladies repeat: Gillian Anderson (“The X-Files,” 1995-1996), Julianna Margulies (“ER,” 1997-1998), Edie Falco (“The Sopranos,” 1999, 2002 and 2007) Allison Janney (“West Wing,” 2000-2001), Margulies (“The Good Wife,” 2009-2010), Viola Davis (“How to Get Away with Murder,” 2014-2015) and Claire Foy (“The Crown,” 2016-2017). This totals 15 of this categories 27 wins giving Aniston a decent chance to play spoiler.
Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series:
“The Great” – Hulu
“Hacks” – HBOMax
“The Kominsky Method” – Netflix
“Only Murders in the Building” – Hulu
“Ted Lasso” – AppleTV+
Awards Radar Predicted Winner: “Ted Lasso” – AppleTV+
Be on the lookout for: “Hacks” – HBOMax
Thoughts: Like “Succession,” on the Drama side, “Ted Lasso,” is this year’s most nominated Comedy Series and should easily win. This is if a voting group of actors doesn’t sympathize with “Hacks.” “Hacks,” recently got the better of “Ted Lasso” at the Golden Globes winning Best TV Comedy Series. The tide may be turning but “Lasso” is a true ensemble and like many series should win on its second nomination in this category.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Comedy Series
Michael Douglas – “The Kominsky Method”
Brett Goldstein – “Ted Lasso”
Steve Martin – “Only Murders in the Building”
Martin Short – “Only Murders in the Building”
Jason Sudeikis – “Ted Lasso”
Awards Radar Predicted Winner: Jason Sudeikis – “Ted Lasso”
Be on the lookout for: Steve Martin – “Only Murders in the Building”
Thoughts: Sudeikis, is in prime position to win again as they love to award actors twice. It’s actually rarer to win this category once– remember they awarded Alec Baldwin (“30 Rock”) seven times in a row. Martin, is a comedy legend and he could sneak away with the prize. However, he’s more likely to split votes with onscreen costar Short. This comedy duo and Hulu may need to decide who’s lead and who’s supporting before heading into the Emmys.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Comedy Series
Elle Fanning – “The Great”
Sandra Oh – “The Chair”
Jean Smart – “Hacks”
Juno Temple – “Ted Lasso”
Hannah Waddingham – “Ted Lasso”
Awards Radar Predicted Winner: Jean Smart – “Hacks”
Be on the lookout for: Hannah Waddingham – “Ted Lasso”
Thoughts: Smart, is on a role and a win here and at the Critics Choice Awards will make her only the fifth woman to sweep all the major awards: Emmy, Golden Globe, SAG Award, TCA, and Critics Choice Awards. Helping Smart is her second individual nomination in the Limited Series Actress race making Smart the most nominated actor this year. Waddingham, is a scene stealer but she’ll likely have to settle for just the nomination. Should Oh, upset (and that would be an upset) she’d make history as the first woman to win on both the Comedy and Drama side as well as for three different series—it might also help her chances of finally winning that long coveted Emmy.
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
Murray Bartlett – “The White Lotus”
Oscar Isaac – “Scenes From a Marriage”
Michael Keaton – “Dopesick”
Ewan McGregor – “Halston”
Evan Peters – “Mare of Easttown”
Awards Radar Predicted Winner: Michael Keaton – “Dopesick”
Be on the lookout for: Evan Peters – “Mare of Easttown”
Thoughts: After winning the Golden Globe Keaton will likely follow up with his first individual SAG Award win. Keaton, will need this award to establish himself as the one to beat as he heads into the long waiting period while new Limited Series and TV Movies debut brining along new competitors. The actors loved “Mare if Easttown” at the Emmys awarding the series with three acting Emmys if that love translates to the SAG Awards be on the lookout for Peters to play spoiler. Helping Peters, is all of the actors he’s worked with as a member of Ryan Murphy’s acting troupe which could help him steal the trophy.
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Movie or Limited Series
Jennifer Coolidge – “The White Lotus”
Cynthia Erivo – “Genius: Aretha”
Margaret Qualley – “Maid”
Jean Smart – “Mare of Easttown”
Kate Winslet – “Mare of Easttown”
Awards Radar Predicted Winner: Kate Winslet – “Mare of Easttown”
Be on the lookout for: Margaret Qualley – “Maid”
Thoughts: After winning the Golden Globe and Emmy Winslet should once again end her awards run with a SAG Award for “Mare of Easttown.” Should (or when) Winslet wins she will be the third actress after Alfre Woodard and Helen Mirren to win this category twice. Winslet will also make history as the first to sweep the Emmy, Golden Globe, and SAG Award twice for a Limited Series after previously doing so for “Mildred Pierce.” Lookout for Qualley, as an upset here would firmly establish her as the one to beat as she awaits to see who will likely compete with her at this year’s Emmys.
Outstanding Action Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in a Comedy or Drama Series
“Cobra Kai” – Netflix
“The Falcon and the Winter Soldier” – Disney+
“Loki” – Disney+
“Mare of Easttown” — HBO
“Squid Game” – Netflix
Awards Radar Predicted Winner: “Squid Game” – Netflix
Be on the lookout for: “Mare of Easttown”
Thoughts: The hyper-violent series is almost tailor made to win any stunt category with almost every episode acting like an f.y.c. But don’t count out “Mare,” the Limited Series stunts aren’t as flash but they’re seamlessly executed. And in a category with so many over-the-top stunts the “less is more” option could be the winner—sometimes it’s the one that’s unlike the others that can be beneficial. Should “Mare of Easttown” win it would make history as the first Limited Series to win the category.
Enjoy the SAG Awards. Then come back for more ARTV television coverage. Reviews, features, red carpet coverage and of course our interviews with the best in the industry.