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Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: SAG Lags Behind

Considering how little of this Oscar season has followed expectations, it only stands to reason that a Guild Award has a dulled impact in 2021. Whereas most years, we look to the Screen Actors Guild Awards for major tips in regard to the Academy Awards, this time around, that feeling is rather muted. Sure, SAG will be a piece of the puzzle, but it won’t tell us anything about Nomadland remaining the Best Picture frontrunner. It’s coveted Cast Ensemble category will just pit Minari and The Trial of the Chicago 7 against each other, both hoping to stake a claim to the second place spot. It’s a very odd scenario, one that does put a damper on the ceremony. As such, there’s limited updates to be made Oscar-wise, but today is still a good day for a check in.

I’ve already mentioned what to watch out for on Sunday, but the one thing that could be notable about SAG is that it’ll potentially confirm that The Trial of the Chicago 7 has completely faded. Going hand in hand with that, it’ll proof that Minari is hoping to come up the middle and pull off a massive upset. For what it’s worth, if Best Picture at the Oscars does come down to Minari, Nomadland, or Promising Young Woman, three independent features, none written or directed by white men, each the sort of film that would struggle in the past for even a nomination, that’s something special. Regardless of what you think of the movies, it would be a true marker of some of the change going on currently within the Academy.

A24

This is some of what I said earlier in the week, when I did final SAG predictions (here). Take a gander:

On Sunday, the Screen Actors Guild Awards will be had, and with that, we’ll have finished with another major Guild. Usually, SAG is a pivotal moment in the awards season, with major Oscar implications. This time around? Barring some upsets, likely not as much. The big category especially is probably not going to change the Best Picture race at all. The Academy Awards could look to SAG a bit, but they won’t be waiting for the results with baited breath. That’s just how this year has gone down. Still, it’s a huge precursor, so we’ll be watching. It’s just what we do, isn’t it?

To be sure, other years have featured more hanging in the balance in the lead up to SAG. This year, however, very little seems as though it will move the Oscar needle. Cast Ensemble doesn’t feature either of the likely Best Picture players in Nomadland and Promising Young Woman. The four acting categories could easily match not only the Academy Award winners, but what’s largely been predicted for months. While some years have been tense affairs this one is likely to be more yawn-inducing than anything else.

So, with SAG going down this weekend, will there be any major Oscar impact? My guess is no, not really, as Nomadland will remain in the driver’s seat for Picture, while the Actor and Supporting Actor categories are locked up. Now, Actress could confirm a frontrunner, while Supporting Actress could clear up a little chaos, but nothing to hang your hat on. Essentially, this Guild just won’t have quite the sway it usually does. So, we continue to watch, to wait, and see how this very unusual awards season begins to wrap up. Just keep in mind what I mentioned above.

Searchlight Pictures

Not that any of you need the reminder, but as you can imagine predictions have been updated once again, where applicable. Of course, it’s not just for the Oscars, either. Yes, in addition to the Academy Awards, everything else has been given a once over in the last handful of days yet again. We have Film Independent Spirit Award winner predictions recently updated, with the aforementioned final SAG picks, along with my choices for the Directors Guild Awards. So, be sure to look at those DGA picks too. Have at it, folks, and as is always the case, we’re not far out from another update…

For easy reference, here are my current Oscar picks, for your perusal:

Carey Mulligan (front) stars as “Cassie” and Bo Burnham (back) stars as “Ryan“ in director Emerald Fennell’s PROMISING YOUNG WOMAN, a Focus Features release. Credit : Merie Weismiller Wallace / Focus Features

Best Picture – Nomadland (Second Spot: Promising Young Woman)

Best Director – Chloe Zhao for Nomadland (Second Spot: David Fincher for Mank)

Best Actor – Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Second Spot: Anthony Hopkins for The Father)

Best Actress – Carey Mulligan for Promising Young Woman (Second Spot: Frances McDormand for Nomadland)

Best Supporting Actor – Daniel Kaluuya for Judas and the Black Messiah (Second Spot: Sacha Baron Cohen for The Trial of the Chicago 7)

Best Supporting Actress – Maria Bakalova for Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (Second Spot: Glenn Close for Hillbilly Elegy)

Best Original Screenplay – Emerald Fennell for Promising Young Woman (Second Spot: Aaron Sorkin for The Trial of the Chicago 7)

Best Adapted Screenplay – Chloe Zhao for Nomadland (Second Spot: Kemp Powers for One Night in Miami…)

Best Animated Feature – Soul (Second Spot: Wolfwalkers)

Best Production Design – Mank (Second Spot: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)

Best Cinematography – Nomadland (Second Spot: Mank)

Best Costume Design – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Second Spot: Emma.)

Best Film Editing – Sound of Metal (Second Spot: The Trial of the Chicago 7)

Best Makeup & Hairstyling – Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom (Second Spot: Mank)

Best Sound – Sound of Metal (Second Spot: News of the World)

Best Visual Effects – Tenet (Second Spot: The Midnight Sky)

Best Original Score – Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for Soul (Second Spot: James Newton Howard for News of the World)

Best Original Song – Diane Warren – lo Si (Seen) from The Life Ahead (Second Spot: Leslie Odom Jr. and Sam Ashworth – Speak Now from One Night in Miami…)

Best Documentary Feature – My Octopus Teacher (Second Spot: Crip Came)

Best International Feature – Another Round (Second Spot: Collective)

Best Animated Short Film – If Anything Happens I Love You (Second Spot: Burrow)

Best Live Action Short Film – Two Distant Strangers (Second Spot: The Present)

Best Documentary Short Subject – A Love Song for Latasha (Second Spot: Do Not Split)

Stay tuned for another update next week!

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Written by Joey Magidson

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