In a normal season, the first week of October would be a prime moment in awards season. Oscar predictions would reflect the fall film festival season, big time contenders would be hitting theaters, and the campaign trail would be filled with Academy Award hopefuls. 2020, obviously, has presented a completely new situation. That being said, the season is underway in its own form. As such, predictions are consistently being updated. Hopefully, you all have been checking in with our updated Academy Award Predictions (found right here, if you don’t already know), so you know how frequently they are updated. Still, with a new month upon us, a reminder can’t hurt.
What I wanted to mention here is that we’re in a unique period where streaming services like Amazon Studios, Apple, Hulu, and Netflix have a real upper hand. Previously, their candidacies faced an uphill battle, with some voters poo-pooing them due to outdated modes of thinking, regarding what “film” is. Now, with theaters still partly closed, streamers have been nearly the only game in town. Last year, for example, Netflix was hoping to become the first distributor in ages to land three nominated movies in Best Picture. They ultimately got two in The Irishman and Marriage Story, with other candidates like Dolemite is My Name and The Two Popes falling short, but this year could be an even better shot. Right now, I have them with three nominated flicks (Da 5 Bloods, Mank, and The Trial of the Chicago 7), though another four are in my next tier of contenders. There’s a world in which half of the Best Picture nominees are Netflix releases. That’s impossible to ignore, however you slice it. Does it mean anything? Well, that remains to be seen…
Again, go here for the Oscar predictions, but in case you want to see the Cliff Notes, my current predicted winners in each category are as follows:
Best Picture – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Director – David Fincher for Mank
Best Actor – Delroy Lindo for Da 5 Bloods
Best Actress – Frances McDormand for Nomadland
Best Supporting Actor – Chadwick Boseman for Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Best Supporting Actress – Saoirse Ronan for Ammonite
Best Original Screenplay – Aaron Sorkin for The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Adapted Screenplay – Chloe Zhao for Nomadland
Best Animated Feature – Soul
Best Production Design – Mank
Best Cinematography – Mank
Best Costume Design – Mank
Best Film Editing – The Trial of the Chicago 7
Best Makeup & Hairstyling – Dune
Best Sound – Tenet
Best Visual Effects – Dune
Best Original Score – Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross for Mank
Best Original Song – Billie Eilish (No Time to Die) from No Time to Die
Best Documentary Feature – Crip Camp
Best International Feature – Ema
Stay tuned for updated predictions as soon as next week!
It’s funny, I never really pinned Mank as being this big below the line contender, at least in the same capacity as Tenet and Dune. But something as simple as seeing it as the predicted #1 in 3 consecutive fields like this has me reconsidering.
Whenever I recover from my current knee-jerk reaction to the Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom stills and move that film out of my #1 predictions for Production and Costume Design, I’ll be sure to let Mank take it’s place.
I was a little surprised I predicted it for so many wins, myself. That being said, we’re sort of robbed of the traditional below the line contenders this year, so it may just be what ends up happening…
Well Ryan, so much for Dune…