Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: Ballots Are In for Academy Members and a Wild Precursor Season Has Come to An End

Ladies and gentlemen, voting for the 98th Academy Awards has come to an end. Oscar voters turned in their ballots yesterday, marking one of the final points in the precursor season. Frankly, aside from the Writers Guild of America Awards, which are this weekend, there’s nothing of real note left before the Oscars. So, while this isn’t final predictions, last weekend’s wild precursor slate does have me rearranging things a bit as we prepare to lock in picks.

Because things have to get interesting at the very end, voting commenced and wrapped up as precursor season ended in a wild fashion. Between the BAFTA, PGA, and SAG Actor Awards results, some categories feel locked and loaded, while others are more up in the air than ever. It’s fascinating to see, perhaps due in part to the Oscars being later than usual this year (thanks to the Olympics), but some of it is just the precursors, especially the Guilds, leaving their mark. The new Academy membership could certainly go their own way as well, making for a final week where it’s easy to overthink things, but also hardly as simple as it sometimes feels at this point.

Next week will be final predictions, but right now, I’m talking about the four major races that will decide how the Oscars go. We have three Acting categories to figure out, plus Best Picture. Best Actress will go to Jessie Buckley for Hamnet and Best Director will go to Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another. The Screenplay categories will see Anderson double down in Best Adapted Screenplay, while Ryan Coogler and Sinners will take Best Original Screenplay. That leaves Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Picture…above the line, at least.

Supporting Actress has been a close race all year, as Amy Madigan went from long shot nominee for Weapons to potential frontrunner to locked in a tight race with One Battle After Another‘s Teyana Taylor. Now, they’re duking it out with Sinners‘ Wunmi Mosaku, who picked up a key BAFTA win. Madigan having SAG Actor could be the tiebreaker, but a lot will have to do with if Sinners over-performs or not.

Supporting Actor has long been the hardest to figure out, and of course the category has split things up throughout the season. Stellan Skarsgård rode his frontrunner status in Sentimental Value to only a Golden Globe win, though the SAG snub makes him more of an X factor than you’d normal think. Sean Penn in One Battle After Another has what normally would be an easy winner’s combination with BAFTA and SAG, but a third Oscar for a man at least somewhat unliked in the industry? That can feel odd. So, again, if Sinners is doing better than expected, could the surprise nomination for Delroy Lindo turn into a shock win? I gotta tell you, I’ve made that switch and am considering it, though statistics favor Penn. Lindo would just be a gut feeling.

Then, there’s the Actor field, which went from a presumed coronation for Timothée Chalamet to a real question mark. Chalamet hasn’t been able to take his turn in Marty Supreme and lock down the category, opening things up. His BAFTA loss says more about him not being a sure thing than anything else, but Michael B. Jordan surprising at SAG Actor could be more than just Sinners love. If there’s a late breaking contender, much like Lindo, Jordan could be it, especially if his flick is about to pull some big extra wins.

As for Best Picture, it all comes down to how you see One Battle After Another and Sinners faring elsewhere. The former could be looking at a haul that resembles Traffic, which wouldn’t be bad, but notably wouldn’t result in winning Picture. At the same time, provided it takes something below the line and Penn pulls out Supporting Actor, it would be hard to bet against it, especially as PTA wins himself two Oscars. Now, for the latter, a record-breaking nomination haul has to mean something, right? Throw in the fact that there’s clearly added enthusiasm for the movie, which could score wins in two or even three acting categories, and it’s hard to deny that an upset could be brewing. Is it even an upset? That’s what we’ll figure out and finalize one week from today.

Next week, I’ll have final thoughts in the final predictions piece, but as we take a moment with ballots in…what a season this has been, right? Whether we wind up with One Battle After Another or Sinners, Chalamet or Jordan, Lindo, Penn or Skarsgård, and Madigan, Mosaku, or Taylor, our winners are going to rule. Carry that with you from now until the 15th, when all will be revealed…

My prior predictions article (found here) is available for your perusal, which was my set of picks as final voting got underway. Now, we have all of the Guilds in hand, with voting now closed. So, all that’s left to do is wait! Plus, you know…figure out who and what is going to win.

Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar, the penultimate one for me this season. I also have final predictions for WGA (here) available to check out, if you’re so inclined. I’ll be back with final predictions next week, so we’re not done quite yet, but we’re approaching the eleventh hour, as it were. Sit tight…

Stay tuned for a final to these Oscar predictions one week from today!