Awards Season / Oscar Predictions Update: Time for Final Picks Before the Academy Award Nominations

Pencils down, ladies and gentlemen. On Thursday morning, the Academy Award nominees will finally be revealed. Phase One of Oscar season will give way to Phase Two, with all of the craziness that goes along with that. Still, the Oscar nominations are the biggest moment of the cinematic year, outside of the ceremony itself. So, in advance of Thursday’s announcement, I’m talking out some of my final predictions, which will be live on the site later on today.

My methodology is often to lean on the guilds, give or take when something seems out of step with the Academy membership. Sometimes, you play a hunch. Other times, you play it safe and let the chips fall where they may. Either way, you’re never going to get them all right. Oscar voters do their own thing, so these do wind up just educated guesses. Just keep that in mind…

Below the line, things are poised to be dominated by Frankenstein, One Battle After Another and Sinners. There will be room for other major contenders like Marty Supreme, as well as other films like Train Dreams and Wicked: For Good. Still, look to those top three movies to not just lead the nominations overall, but also to be splashed all around the technical categories. Now, on to the above the line fields.

The Screenplay categories are ones prognosticators are flying a bit blind on, given that the WGA nominations aren’t until after The Academy chimes in. However, we can make some assumptions. Barring a surprise, Best Adapted Screenplay does feel like a lineup featuring Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, and Train Dreams is the likeliest outcome. Best Original Screenplay, on the other hand, could have a surprise or two. Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, and Sinners should show up, but those other two spots could go to any combination of Blue Moon, It Was Just an Accident, Jay Kelly, Sorry, Baby, or Weapons. Which of those get in also could be a hint about potential Best Picture nominations as well, but more on that later.

Best Director is a deceptive one, at least in my eyes. One could look at the DGA five and consider those the chalk picks, but that presumes that the Academy won’t have an international filmmaker amongst their nominees. Recent history suggests that they find room for one, potentially either It Was Just an Accident‘s Jafar Panahi or even The Secret Agent‘s Kleber Mendonça Filho. Either of them could threaten any of the folks here outside of Paul Thomas Anderson. Ryan Coogler, Guillermo del Toro, Josh Safdie, and Chloé Zhao, to one degree or another, will be holding their breath on Thursday morning.

The Acting fields hold most of our intrigue. A lot of that comes from SAG not nominating any performances from international titles, which will not hold true with Oscar. So, that becomes a factor. We always wind up with SAG deviations, but this could be the rare year where none of the four categories lines up five for five, so keep that in mind.

Best Supporting Actor has seemingly coalesced around Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), and Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value) but watch out for Miles Caton (Sinners) or Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly). The former getting in would show some real strength for the film, while the latter would save his title from a potential shut out.

As for Best Supporting Actress, I feel good about Amy Madigan (Weapons) and Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another) leading the way, with Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good) a likely nominee but someone to watch out for as a last minute snub. Then, it’s a matter of if Odessa A’zion gets in for Marty Supreme, if either of the Sentimental Value ladies (Elle Fanning and/or Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas) do, and if Wunmi Mosaku is another show of strength for Sinners. This is the hardest of the acting fields to pin down, so prepare yourself for a potential surprise.

Best Actor does feel set, though that’s exactly where expectations get upended. Still, barring a surprise where Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Jesse Plemons (Bugonia), or Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere) get in, the field is pretty static. If so, the nominees will be Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), and Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent).

Then, there’s Best Actress, where four of the slots feel lined up. Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), and Emma Stone (Bugonia), should have their names called out, though it’s hardly a sure thing for the latter two. If it hold, however, that means the final spot is between Kate Hudson (Song Sung Blue) and Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), with Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) and Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee) looming behind them.

As for Best Picture, I’m feeling very confident about seven of the ten slots. There’s a top three here of Hamnet, One Battle After Another, and Sinners, as each of them can contend for the win. Then, there’s a level down with Frankenstein and Marty Supreme, both of which won’t win, but have a claim to other fields and will still do plenty well. Next, there’s two films in Bugonia and Sentimental Value that I can’t imagine miss. The final three movies? Well, two of them do feel like The Secret Agent and Train Dreams, but neither is locked in, though the latter joins the prior seven in being PGA cited, which helps. The final one for me does come down to whether the Academy follows PGA with a populist pick like F1 or Weapons, goes for a different big title like Wicked: For Good, or pulls a completely different shock. Those thirteen likely will turn into our final ten, however. It’s just a matter of figuring out the bottom of the Picture lineup.

Now, we wait. As you’re reading this, my finalized predictions should be updated on the site, but if not, they’re moments away, so don’t fear. There’s no point in fretting over the minutia of it, and waiting until the very last minute never helps, so if you do predictions as well, set them, relax, and just wait for Oscar to tell us where they stand on Thursday morning.

My prior predictions article (found here) is available for your perusal, of course, though we’ve reached the end of Phase One, so what comes next will be a whole new ballgame. After Thursday morning, we’re on to Phase Two, so strap in!

Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar, the final one before the nominations. Plus, I’ll have potentially a first attempt at Spirit Award predictions soon (I promise, I’ll get to them eventually). I also have predictions for The Actors (here), DGA (here), and PGA (here) available to check out. It’s exciting times as the nominations are just about upon us. So, sit tight for much more as the season continues on, surprises and all…

Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions once the nominations are announced!