Joey Magidson
Folks, we’ve entered the final month of 2025. Yes, December is upon us and the year is only weeks away from wrapping up. I’m grappling with that in several ways, though one that’s applicable to Awards Radar is the beginning of the precursor season. We’re a bit away from the Guilds chiming in to really shape the race, but Phase One precursors are underway, which is as good a reason as any to update my Academy Award predictions. Today, there’s new Oscar picks (and more) to share, as well as some notes about precursors.
Precursor season is where we start to see which films and performances are to be taken seriously. It’s not necessarily where we learn who and what will be nominated by the Academy. In the words of Bane…that comes later. Right now, the movies, as well as artists, who are being cited are simply getting boosts to their candidacy. You don’t get nominated without precursor love, to be fair, but attention here does not always translate to a nomination, let alone a gold statue.
So far, we’ve had tastemaker type groups like the American Film Institute (AFI) and the National Board of Review (NBR) chime in, as well as the New York Film Critics Circle. Throw in the Gothams and the Spirit Award nominations, as well as a smaller regional critics group or two, and you have an initial precursor wave.
Remember, there’s no Academy crossover here, so trying to assume that Oscar voters will follow suite in any way is foolish. At the same time, early momentum is certainly good for any contender, and a few have definitely made initial marks. These might not hold all season, but if at least some do, they will have begun their momentum building here at the beginning of December.
Without question, it has been good to be One Battle After Another so far. Paul Thomas Anderson‘s film has had a wave of Best Picture wins during this wave that rivals or exceeds eventual Oscar juggernauts like Everything Everywhere All At Once and Oppenheimer. Does that mean PTA’s movie has Picture on lock? Not at all, but wins are never a bad thing. Other early momentum builders have been Jafar Panahi and It Was Just an Accident (especially in Best Director), Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent in Best Actor, Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You in Best Actress, Benicio del Toro for One Battle After Another in Best Supporting Actor, and Amy Madigan for Weapons in Best Supporting Actress. If there are early “winners” right now in the season, they might well be the ones, with One Battle After Another probably having the best time, overall. Don’t sleep on Sinners, though, as it has shown up quite a bit, so far.
Friends, what you should be looking out for now are trends to form among the precursors. The Critics Choice (dropping around the same time you read this) and Golden Globe (Monday morning) nominations are up next, so whatever crossover there could be worth taking at least a little note of. At the same time, we’re still in the early days of precursor season and so much can happen. It will be several more weeks before enough of the precursor awards combine to form a more coherent story for the season. Then, we’ll be cooking with gas. Until now, grains of salt…
My prior predictions article (found here) is available for your perusal, of course, and can see some more of the changes I’ve been making along the way, now that the precursor season has begun. This is the time where actual changes do start to happen, even though no individual precursor can make that big of a difference. The cumulative nature of it, however, has an impact, so stay tuned throughout the month…
Folks, as always you can see my newest crack at Oscar predictions right here at Awards Radar, plus potentially a first attempt at Spirit Award predictions (if you don’t see them initially, look for them in the coming days). My final Golden Globe predictions have been made too, though they will shortly be updated to reflect the impending nominations, so be sure to check that out as well. The changes are coming, and will continue to come, more and more, as the fall festivals have now well concluded and the first precursors are underway. So, sit tight for much more as the season continues on in full force…
Stay tuned for another update to these Oscar predictions very soon!
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