Which Precursors Do the Major Oscar Contenders Have Under Their Belts?

As we close in on the Academy Award ceremony on Sunday evening, we’ve also reached the end of the precursor season. The facts and stats are all in our possession. It’s just a matter looking at it properly in order to get those final Oscar predictions (coming Sunday morning, with a preview tomorrow on the podcast) as correct as possible. Now, all precursors are not created equal, but today, it seems like a good moment to show you all which ones the major Oscar contenders have won so far.

If you consult Gold Derby you can see here all of the precursors, down to critics groups, but for this exercise, we’re looking mostly at where there’s actual or perceived Oscar influence. So, while I’m mostly focusing on the Guilds, just know that it doesn’t mean it isn’t a good thing that Anora won Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards or that The Brutalist did well at the Golden Globes. It just means that they don’t hold the same sway that the Directors Guild, Producers Guild, or Screen Actors Guild does (along with BAFTA, to a slightly lesser extent). Now, on to the major categories and which precursors have favored which contenders.

I’m going to lump Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress together, since Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) and Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) have dominated all season. They have the CCA and Globe prizes under their belts, but also BAFTA and SAG. At this point, either of them not winning would be an unprecedented upset.

Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Original Screenplay have favored Conclave (Peter Straughan) and Anora (Sean Baker), respectively, but not exclusively. In Adapted, Conclave has BAFTA and the USC Scripter prize, alongside the overall Best Screenplay win at the Globes. A Complete Unknown has nothing, while Nickel Boys just has the Writers Guild, where Conclave wasn’t present. So, Straughan seems to be sitting pretty. In Original, Anora and Baker seem to be in front, though that’s largely on the basis of a dominant critics group precursor run, since WGA is the only other notable win for the script. As such, while Baker is the likely winner, Jesse Eisenberg for A Real Pain (BAFTA) and Coralie Fargeat for The Substance (CCA) are not out of the running entirely. Brady Corbet for The Brutalist would be a surprising spoiler, lacking a non critics group win.

Now, the big four. First, we can do Best Actress, which pits Mikey Madison for Anora against Demi Moore for The Substance, with Fernanda Torres for I’m Still Here hoping to spoil. Torres only has the Golden Globe, which seems to keep her in third place, leaving a very close race between Madison and Moore. The former has BAFTA and the Spirit Awards, alongside the most critics prizes, while the latter has CCA, Golden Globe, and SAG citations. As we’ll discuss tomorrow on the podcast, it seems to come down to if you think BAFTA or SAG holds more sway. It’s close to a coin flip, that’s for sure.

Best Actor looked like a boring race, with Adrien Brody for The Brutalist out in front. At least, that was the case until Timothée Chalamet for A Complete Unknown got on the board in a big way with a SAG upset. Brody sports BAFTA, CCA, and Golden Globe wins, while Chalamet is banking on SAG and late breaking momentum. The book suggests Brody, though if you’re playing a hunch, Chalamet may be worth taking a shot on. This is the one category where the precursors don’t necessarily tell the whole story.

When it comes to Best Director, DGA holds the most sway, historically. As such, Baker and Anora got a massive win there, completely taking away the momentum of Corbet and The Brutalist. The latter has BAFTA and the Golden Globes, while the former has DGA and the Spirit Awards. There’s a sense that this isn’t wrapped up, which is very fair, especially with how the Academy can sometimes do a split between Best Picture and Best Director. However, the consistency and reliability of DGA has me thinking it is Baker’s to lose, even without him being able to close the deal after that big win.

Finally, Best Picture. This pits Anora against Conclave, with The Brutalist hoping to stay alive and pull the upset. The Brutalist only has Golden Globe to boast, but so does Emilia Pérez, so the focus is on Anora and Conclave. The former has the one two punch of DGA and PGA, in addition to CCA and the Spirit Awards, as well as the most overall wins during the precursors, including critics groups. The latter sports BAFTA and SAG. The odds certainly favor Anora, though again, it hasn’t closed the deal, and that helps out Conclave. If this had been more of a back and forth (or if it hadn’t been snubbed in Director), I would say Conclave is peaking at the perfect time. Maybe it is, but right now, as I get set to finalize predictions, Anora has a combination that rarely ends up being beaten.

Stay tuned to see how it all goes down on Sunday night!